Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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648 FXUS61 KILN 160154 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 854 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday before pushing off to the east on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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An area of weakening isentropic lift will shift slowly northeast across the area through the overnight hours. Area radars are showing some light returns stretching from central Indiana into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Expect these returns to shift/push slowly northward through the overnight hours but they should also weaken somewhat as the lift weakens. Will generally play it with slight chance pops and areas of drizzle through tonight. With some breaks in the clouds across the north, temperatures have dropped off a few degrees since sunset but farther south in the thicker clouds, temperatures have remained fairly steady. Thus, in areas where we are already cloudy across southern and central portions of our FA, think temperatures will remain relatively steady through the night. Across the north, temperatures may drop off a bit more before leveling off and rising a bit as thicker clouds move in overnight. This could lead to a narrow axis of light freezing rain/drizzle across northern portions of our area later tonight. For the most part, road temperatures across the north are still above freezing, but the METRo road model is showing a few spots across our northern tier of counties where road temperatures may dip below freezing overnight. This could lead to some spotty slick spots later tonight. Will continue to monitor and likely highlight with an SPS if it becomes necessary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The front will lift northward on Monday and any remaining precipitation is expected to come to an end. Temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s on Monday and 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Additional precipitation will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday in advance of a cold front. There is some instability on Tuesday and have thunder chances in the forecast. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm on Thursday across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Do not expect much in the way of sunshine on Tuesday which will be a limiting factor. An upper level disturbance will move through Tuesday night keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east. Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low pressure will result in more showers on Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Areas of light rain and drizzle are continuing to push east southeast from central Illinois across southern Indiana and into southern Ohio/northern Kentucky early this evening. This is in association with a weak mid level short wave moving through the region along with some weak isentropic lift that is forecast to shift slowly north and weaken through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, IFR to low MVFR cigs and vsbys are fairly widespread in this area of precipitation. As the better lift shifts north and weakens and we get on the back side of the short wave, expect precipitation coverage to slowly diminish through the night and lower cigs to continue to shift slowly northward. While our northern TAF sites are right on the edge of the lower cigs attm, think they will overspread them as we progress through this evening. Will also allow for some periods of lower vsbys and-dz through the overnight hours. Temperatures across our north will hover near freezing so tough to rule out some brief -fzdz at the northern taf sites but think any pcpn through the night would be primarily just -dz. The models are hanging on to a fair amount of low level moisture through the day on Monday so will be slow to lift cigs as we progress through the later portions of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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