Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040157 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 957 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND FORCING MOVES EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS THE WEST LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S / LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL). && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...PESKY VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL LINGER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. ON WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. DYNAMIC ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 15Z...AND TO THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY 18Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY START OUT VFR...BUT WILL THEN DROP TO MVFR AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL LINGER. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KURZ NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/KURZ SHORT TERM...KURZ LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HICKMAN

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