Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290833 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 433 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm and humid airmass will remain in place today. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast... mainly near and south of the Ohio River this afternoon. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. Thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Cooler temperatures and less humid air can be expected through the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Elongated mid level ridge to remain stretched w-e from the mid MS Vly thru the Ohio Vly. Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes today where mid level westerlies will exist. Weak boundary across the south and instability gradient, may lead to isold convective development this afternoon. Have limited pops to chance/slight chance. Highs in the mid/upper 80s northwest, where drier air will begin to work in, to the lower 90s southeast. Heat indices look to reach the mid/upr 90s across the far southern counties. Will continue mention of the heat and thunderstorm wind and heavy rain potential in HWO product.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Any convection that develops this afternoon will diminish this evening with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s far north, where some drier air will filter in, to the upper 60s far south. Weak surface ridge and a little drier air over the region Tuesday. Have dry forecast Tuesday with only marginal instby in the far south. Highs look to range from the mid 80s nw to near 90 far south. Mid level shortwave begins to work into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night. Expect mainly clear skies in the evening, followed by an increase in mid/high level clouds overnight. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s. Upper level pattern change with mean trof developing over se Canada and New England and ridge building over the nations mid section. This places the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow with surface front dropping south through the region Wednesday. Forcing is limited with only weak convergence noted in the low levels and even instability is limited. Will continue to limit pops to low chance north and slight chance south.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend. This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thunderstorms have dissipated with loss of daytime heating. Expect BR to reduce visibilities early this morning in the very humid airmass. Once the BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should then persist as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon but models keep them west of TAF sites. Sky cover should become rather sparse with SCT cumulus and altocumulus. Winds will remain light out of the northeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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