Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010817 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A RARE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EVENING...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH ALREADY ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS ANY CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH 12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL FORECASTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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