Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 160154
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
854 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday. A cold front
will move through on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build
into the region on Wednesday before pushing off to the east on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --An area of weakening isentropic lift will shift slowly northeast
across the area through the overnight hours. Area radars are
showing some light returns stretching from central Indiana into
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Expect these returns to
shift/push slowly northward through the overnight hours but they
should also weaken somewhat as the lift weakens. Will generally
play it with slight chance pops and areas of drizzle through
tonight. With some breaks in the clouds across the north,
temperatures have dropped off a few degrees since sunset but
farther south in the thicker clouds, temperatures have remained
fairly steady. Thus, in areas where we are already cloudy across
southern and central portions of our FA, think temperatures will
remain relatively steady through the night. Across the north,
temperatures may drop off a bit more before leveling off and
rising a bit as thicker clouds move in overnight. This could lead
to a narrow axis of light freezing rain/drizzle across northern
portions of our area later tonight. For the most part, road
temperatures across the north are still above freezing, but the
METRo road model is showing a few spots across our northern tier
of counties where road temperatures may dip below freezing
overnight. This could lead to some spotty slick spots later
tonight. Will continue to monitor and likely highlight with an SPS
if it becomes necessary.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The front will lift northward on Monday and any remaining
precipitation is expected to come to an end. Temperatures will
rise into the 40s and 50s on Monday and 50s and 60s on Tuesday.
Additional precipitation will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday in advance of a cold front. There is some instability
on Tuesday and have thunder chances in the forecast. Cannot rule
out an isolated severe storm on Thursday across southeastern
portions of the forecast area. Do not expect much in the way of
sunshine on Tuesday which will be a limiting factor. An upper
level disturbance will move through Tuesday night keeping
precipitation chances in the forecast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High
pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east.
Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising
upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail
end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley
will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low
pressure will result in more showers on Sunday.
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of light rain and drizzle are continuing to push east
southeast from central Illinois across southern Indiana and into
southern Ohio/northern Kentucky early this evening. This is in
association with a weak mid level short wave moving through the
region along with some weak isentropic lift that is forecast to
shift slowly north and weaken through the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, IFR to low MVFR cigs and vsbys are fairly widespread in
this area of precipitation. As the better lift shifts north and
weakens and we get on the back side of the short wave, expect
precipitation coverage to slowly diminish through the night and
lower cigs to continue to shift slowly northward. While our
northern TAF sites are right on the edge of the lower cigs attm,
think they will overspread them as we progress through this
evening. Will also allow for some periods of lower vsbys and-dz
through the overnight hours. Temperatures across our north will
hover near freezing so tough to rule out some brief -fzdz at the
northern taf sites but think any pcpn through the night would be
primarily just -dz. The models are hanging on to a fair amount of
low level moisture through the day on Monday so will be slow to
lift cigs as we progress through the later portions of the TAF
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday.