Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 280558
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
High pressure will briefly build in tonight. A frontal boundary
will develop into the region late Friday and linger near the
area into Saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. Winds
will continue to decrease overnight and river valley fog will be
possible. Mid clouds will move into the region late in the
overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight
with lows in the 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. An
east-west front will begin to develop into the southwest
counties in the afternoon. This front will become sharper and
lift into the northern part of the forecast area Friday night.
Some showers may develop in western counties before the end of
the day. But activity will increase overnight as mid level short
wave moves through southwest flow which will induce a low level
jet, enhancing lift. Models are spreading elevated instability
across the region which could be sufficient for some severe
storms with large hail. In addition, there is a risk of heavy
rainfall. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
details. Given model differences, forecast has leaned quite a
bit on the SREF. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the models agree that there will be a frontal boundary
stretched across the region on Saturday, there remains to
differences in the placement and the timing of convection.
Majority of the models have the front and the pcpn running from
central Indiana northeast into northwest Ohio as dawn breaks on
Saturday. As sfc low move ne up the front in the ne TX and ern
OK, the front buckles northward on Saturday, allowing the srn
edge of the pcpn work also work northward. With the region split
by the front, there will be a wide range in temperatures. Highs
in the se will push into the mid 80s, while locations in the nw
will remain in the mid to upper 60s.
The region will be warm sectored on Sunday. An isolated storm
will be possible in the heating. Highs on Sunday will push into
For Sunday night into Monday an ejecting H5 low will push a
strong cold front ewd up the Ohio Valley. Line of convection
will reach the fa late Sunday night and may be lingering in the
eastern counties at the beginning of Monday.
Behind the front, much colder air will work into the region. The
GFS is the wettest with the wrap around moisture. Ran a blend of
the PoPs for the middle of the week by carry low chance PoPs.
Highs will be in the 60s.
By the end of the week, temperatures another cutoff low pushes
another round of pcpn east of the Mississippi.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Period starts dry under weak high pressure giving mainly clear
skies. Conditions will deteriorate slowly after 12z as a warm
front develops. Clouds will thicken and lower while ceilings
remain VFR, and showers may occur by evening at western sites
in increasing moisture and lift associated with the warm front.
MVFR conditions may eventually accompany the showers late in
the forecast period as the boundary layer nears saturation. Kept
thunder out for now due to isolated nature. Surface winds from
the southeast will stay under 10 knots during the early part of
the forecast. Speeds around 10 knots out of the south will be
possible late in the forecast with the showers. Wind shear is
expected to develop for a few hours late in the forecast.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of
thunderstorms are possible late Friday night into Saturday and
then again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Tuesday.
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