Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 654 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS THE FA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY. REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN. WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT TODAY AND RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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