Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 222038 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER PERIODS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FA. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.