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000
FXUS61 KILN 221246
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
846 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the southeast through the day,
leading to dry conditions and some moderation in temperatures. A
chance of showers will return Tuesday into Tuesday night as an upper
level disturbance moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure ridge will shift slowly southeast across
the Ohio Valley today. This will lead to mostly sunny skies
with afternoon highs in the 60 to 65 degree range.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between surface high pressure to
the southeast and a surface low passing to the northwest tonight.
Southwesterly winds persist in the pressure gradient overnight
and upper level clouds increase. Forecast lows remain a bit more
mild in the 40s.

On Tuesday, the surface low passes well to the north across southern
Canada. As the low passes by, an attached cold front pushes into the
area from the northwest by the late afternoon. Rain chances increase
when the front approaches due to moisture pooling and forcing
increasing. Thunder chances remain low due to the absence of
instability. QPF is fairly low since forcing and moisture are not
overly high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level s/wv and cold front will be pass east/southeast across
the region Tuesday night, resulting in a period of showers. Pcpn
will taper off from the northwest to the southeast in the latter
part of the night into sunrise. Lows will range from the lower 40s
northwest to the upper 40s southeast.

On Wednesday, high pressure will begin to build southeast into the
region from the northwest. In the CAA pattern, post frontal clouds
will become scattered by afternoon. It will be cooler with highs
ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south.

For Wednesday night, skies will clear as high pressure settles into
the central/eastern Great Lakes, extending south into the Ohio
Valley. The potential will exit for frost or freezing conditions,
especially north of the Ohio River. Will make mention of this threat
in the HWO. Lows will range from near 30 in the north to the upper
30s in the far south.

On Thursday, the center of the high will shift east to New England.
Under abundant sunshine, temperatures will warm, but will still be a
little bit below normal. Highs will range from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s south. Winds will increase some Thursday night,
allowing temperatures to be not quite as cool. Under mostly clear
skies, temperatures will range from the upper 30s north to the mid
40s south.

A pattern change is in the offing for the upcoming weekend as a mid
level ridge axis initially builds east into the Great Lakes and the
Ohio Valley then establishes itself just off to our east. This will
result in warmer temperatures but increasing chances for showers and
some thunderstorms. For Friday into Friday night, a warm front will
approach from the southwest into our region. This will result in an
increase in clouds and a chance for pcpn as a low level jet focuses
itself into the region. Best threat for pcpn will occur over the
northwest CWFA where low level forcing will be the strongest, to the
least southeast. With the low level wind flow turning more
southerly, highs will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on
Friday followed by overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s
Friday night. Over the weekend, chances for showers/a few
thunderstorms can be expected in the warmer, more humid airmass.
Highs in the 70s on Saturday will warm into the 70s to the lower 80s
on Sunday. Lows will be warm in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions persist for the TAF period. Skies remain clear
through morning before mid and upper level clouds build Monday
night.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight. Southwesterly winds
increase on Monday.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday.
Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Campbell