Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 232351
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
651 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Rain chances will continue this evening as a low pressure system
continues to move southeast of the region. Precipitation will
gradually taper off as weak surface high pressure builds into the
area by Tuesday. Rain chances return for Wednesday as another low
pressure system approaches the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
North-south band of rain west of I-75 will diminish as convergence
weakens. Still some energy wrapping around the low passing well
southeast of the region could result in some additional patchy
light rain or drizzle through the overnight. Winds will decrease a
bit and back some. Forecast lows look reasonable at this point.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining drizzle and fog will come to an end Tuesday morning.
Low level clouds are expected to remain for much of the day,
although a few breaks in the clouds will be possible by later in the
day. More appreciable breaks in the clouds are expected Tuesday
night, however this break will be short lived as additional clouds
move into the region in advance of the next system.
Above normal temperatures are still expected for Tuesday even with
the cloud cover. Went with slightly higher temperatures across
southwest portions of the forecast area where there starts to be
some warm air advection late in the day.
With the potential for some breaks in the clouds Tuesday night
temperatures will likely drop down into the mid to upper 30s. This
is still above normal for this time of year. Southerly flow will
keep temperatures from dropping further than that Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes will keep
the Ohio Valley warm-sectored with temperatures in the 50s and a
slight but increasing chance of pre-frontal showers through the
day. This initial threat of showers will move southeast of the
region by nightfall, then the colder air will move in as a large
piece of upper level energy moves past by daybreak Thursday. Any
precipitation after Wednesday evening will be snow, possibly mixed
with rain at its onset. Snowfall in the cold air behind the front
will be light, a third of an inch or less.
A longwave trough sets up west to east from northern CA, through
the Great Lakes, towards the Canadian maritime provinces. West
winds over the bulk of the United States will keep a cooling trend
over the region, with upper 30s to around 40 for highs Thursday
dropping a few degrees each day to be about 10 degrees colder by
Sunday, then warm back up to where they started on Tuesday.
Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be the warmest of the
period in the mid to upper 30s. After that they will quickly drop
into the 20s for the rest of the forecast and could dip into the
teens by Sunday night.
No clear shot of snow is expected during the extended, though a
strong trough will cross Sunday night and early Monday, providing
the best chances for accumulating snow. Scattered snow showers
will remain a possibility for much of the forecast being in a cool
and unsettled pattern.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ceilings will lower to IFR or LIFR overnight. Also expect at least
MVFR visibility restrictions in mist a some patchy drizzle.
Visibility could drop to IFR in a few places. Winds will decrease
a bit and back to become more northwesterly. Low ceilings will
persist past 12Z and then slowly improve in the latter part of
the TAF period with all locations expected to get above 2000 ft
before 00Z Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday evening. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible Thursday into Friday.