Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 232008 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 408 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area on Monday allowing for thunderstorms across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Heat index values will be near 100 this afternoon and into the early evening hours therefore decided to keep the heat advisory and excessive heat warning up at this time. Another warm and muggy night with low temperatures only dropping into the 70s. Most of the area is expected to stay dry this evening and into the overnight hours however cannot rule out isolated thunderstorm activity across the far north this evening where there is better instability and cu field in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Continued the heat advisory...and excessive heat warning for Montgomery and Hamilton counties...for a large portion of the area on Sunday. Decided to not go with a heat advisory across the north on Sunday with some uncertainties on potential cloud cover and convection potential. Signals have been less defined with having convection moving across primarily the north on Sunday, however with convection uncertainty and more marginal heat index values across the north decided to leave out of the advisory at this time. On Monday there will be a better chance for thunderstorm activity as a cold front moves through the region. In addition, some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds. The best chance for severe weather will be across the southern half of the forecast area with better timing with peak heating. Before these storms move through heat index values across far southern portions of the forecast area are expected to be near 100 degrees. Precipitation will gradually taper off Monday night with only some thunderstorms across far southern portions of the forecast area remaining by the end of the short term. With the passage of the frontal boundary all but the far southern portions of the forecast area are expected to drop down into the 60s Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front will stall out near/just south of the Ohio River during the mid-week. Lower precipitable waters are forecast to press southward through much of northern and central Indiana/Ohio behind the front, but near/south of the front drying will be minimal. As such, will continue with a chance of primarily diurnal convection Tuesday through Wednesday in the vicinity of the front, roughly areas along and south of the Ohio River. Further north, enough dry air should be present to preclude thunderstorm development. By Thursday, whatever is left of the stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front, allowing a moist air mass to return to the entire CWA. Guidance suggests multiple shortwaves moving across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week and perhaps even into Saturday. This supports chance pops for thunderstorms during this time. Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above average values through the long term. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cu field has developed this morning and afternoon, but expect that it will slowly scatter out through 00z Sunday. VFR conditions will continue through the early overnight period before calm winds and a very moist airmass once again allow BR to create VSBY restrictions in the 08-12z time frame. Expect that VSBY restrictions will be greatest at KLUK, with TEMPO MVFR VSBYs likely for KCVG, KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. Expect that mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the northwest after 12z Sunday, but CIGS/VSBYs will remain VFR for the end of the TAF period. There remains uncertainty regarding potential shower/storm development on Sunday, so refrained from including at this time. Light winds will continue out of the south on Sunday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday and again Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ042-051-053>055-060- 062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 043>046-052-056. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KC

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