Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 232008
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid
conditions through the weekend. A cold front will move through the
area on Monday allowing for thunderstorms across the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Heat index values will be near 100 this afternoon and into the
early evening hours therefore decided to keep the heat advisory
and excessive heat warning up at this time. Another warm and muggy
night with low temperatures only dropping into the 70s.
Most of the area is expected to stay dry this evening and into the
overnight hours however cannot rule out isolated thunderstorm
activity across the far north this evening where there is better
instability and cu field in place.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Continued the heat advisory...and excessive heat warning for
Montgomery and Hamilton counties...for a large portion of the
area on Sunday. Decided to not go with a heat advisory across the
north on Sunday with some uncertainties on potential cloud cover
and convection potential. Signals have been less defined with
having convection moving across primarily the north on Sunday,
however with convection uncertainty and more marginal heat index
values across the north decided to leave out of the advisory at
On Monday there will be a better chance for thunderstorm activity
as a cold front moves through the region. In addition, some of
these storms may be severe with damaging winds. The best chance
for severe weather will be across the southern half of the
forecast area with better timing with peak heating. Before these
storms move through heat index values across far southern portions
of the forecast area are expected to be near 100 degrees.
Precipitation will gradually taper off Monday night with only some
thunderstorms across far southern portions of the forecast area
remaining by the end of the short term. With the passage of the
frontal boundary all but the far southern portions of the forecast
area are expected to drop down into the 60s Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will stall out near/just south of the Ohio River during
the mid-week. Lower precipitable waters are forecast to press
southward through much of northern and central Indiana/Ohio behind
the front, but near/south of the front drying will be minimal. As
such, will continue with a chance of primarily diurnal convection
Tuesday through Wednesday in the vicinity of the front, roughly
areas along and south of the Ohio River. Further north, enough dry
air should be present to preclude thunderstorm development.
By Thursday, whatever is left of the stalled boundary will lift back
north as a warm front, allowing a moist air mass to return to the
entire CWA. Guidance suggests multiple shortwaves moving across the
Ohio Valley through the end of the week and perhaps even into
Saturday. This supports chance pops for thunderstorms during this
Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above
average values through the long term.
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cu field has developed this morning and afternoon, but expect
that it will slowly scatter out through 00z Sunday. VFR conditions
will continue through the early overnight period before calm
winds and a very moist airmass once again allow BR to create VSBY
restrictions in the 08-12z time frame. Expect that VSBY
restrictions will be greatest at KLUK, with TEMPO MVFR VSBYs
likely for KCVG, KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK.
Expect that mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the
northwest after 12z Sunday, but CIGS/VSBYs will remain VFR for the
end of the TAF period. There remains uncertainty regarding
potential shower/storm development on Sunday, so refrained from
including at this time. Light winds will continue out of the south
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday and again
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ042-051-053>055-060-
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ061-077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066-