Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220240 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE HWO. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...

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