Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241714 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1214 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW-SE TODAY EVEN AS MUCH OF CENTRAL OHIO STAYS UNDERNEATH A STRATUS DECK FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST CWA HAD ME CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE BY 5-7 DEGREES TODAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY THE SAME WRT MAX TEMPS AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN BEFORE IT CLOUDS BACK UP. THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE BECOMING MORE SPARING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TODAY. ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN OVERNIGHT...DID NOT WANT A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY BUT GIVEN THE NATURE OF TONIGHTS EVENT THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP TODAY WEATHER-FREE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT CIGS AND VSBYS. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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