Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010602 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 202 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. VERY TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND LATE EVENING TRENDS ARE NOT LENDING ANY CONFIDENCE. DESPITE THE BREAKS...FEEL STRATUS COULD EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A COLD ADVECTING N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. A VORT MAX SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND A WEAK LOW SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS MAY AID IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE CENTRAL OHIO FORECAST AS WELL BECAUSE OF THESE. BROAD BRUSHED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 3/4 OR SO OF THE CWA GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SREF DATA...SIMULATED SATELLITE AND GIVEN THIS AREA HAS THE LEAST CHANCE FOR DENSE OVERCAST. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DENSER FOG IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN RIVER VALLEYS. COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF COLUMBUS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS BEING MAXIMIZED...WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD POOL AXIS WILL MIGRATE FROM RICHMOND/WILMINGTON TO TOLEDO/ZANESVILLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLOUDY PERIOD EARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING...ENOUGH TO PUSH HIGHS TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES...LIKELY LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF AND ALONG OHIO RIVER WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S. FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY SOLID SHAPE FOR THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS N-S ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET OF 40KT OR SO RIGHT OFF OF THE DECK. PM LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE 30.12Z NAM AND CANADIAN PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SPEEDING IT UP. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST IR SAT IMGRY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN OHIO. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING AND LOWERING THIS MORNING. HAVE MFR CIGS AT KDAY AND KILN AND IFR CIGS AT KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING ACRS ALL BUT THE KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES. IN CENTRAL OHIO HAVE MVFR CIGS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOING INTO THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST TODAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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