Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220003 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 803 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER AIR THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH BE REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... ISOLATED SH RA JUST EAST OF CWA WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS RETURNING WITH SPOTTY -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. SMALL POPS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU PERIOD. SOME CU/STRATOCU IN THE COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. COOLEST AIR OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF 60S. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS FROM MONDAY. MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH WARMING BUT NOT UNCOMMON TO GET 30 DEGREE RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHUD BE VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SPRINKLE COULD AFFECT KCMH AND KLCK EARLY BUT HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION SINCE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND ANY AFFECTS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PADGETT NEAR TERM...PADGETT SHORT TERM...HATZOS/PADGETT LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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