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767
FXUS61 KILN 091053
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
653 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the area this afternoon and
evening. High pressure will briefly build in for Friday. But
then another area of low pressure will pass across northern Ohio
on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low pressure in Illinois early this morning will move east into
the forecast area this afternoon. Showers and some
thunderstorms will become more prevalent ahead of and north of
the low track. Meanwhile, south of the low, expect to
destabilize, although there is some uncertainty with how much.
This will lead to the development of thunderstorms south of the
low and trailing cold front. There will be sufficient shear for
storm organization, so there could be some strong to severe
thunderstorms in the southern half of the forecast area. Wind
and hail will be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out,
although if winds veer south of the low, that potential will
become very low.

Expect a fairly substantial temperature gradient across the area
with highs ranging from the lower 60s in west central Ohio to
the upper 70s in northern Kentucky.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low and cold front will exit the region early in the
evening taking any storms with it. There could be some lingering
showers with cold air advection, but these will diminish
overnight.

A positively tilted mid level trough will cross the region on
Friday. So although surface high pressure will be nudging in,
with the colder air aloft, cannot rule out some diurnal showers.

It will be cooler. Lows will be closer to normal but highs on
Friday will be several degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fast moving low pressure will bring the likelihood for showers along
with isolated thunderstorms beginning late Friday night and
continuing through Saturday. Winds may gust close to 30 knots
Saturday afternoon as the system pushes across the Great Lakes. A
ridge of high pressure will provide tranquil weather on Sunday. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday and Tuesday when
an east-west oriented boundary sags south from the Great Lakes.
Showers and thunderstorms become likely on Wednesday when low
pressure is forecast to track along the boundary, bringing a large
area of moisture and lift to the Ohio Valley.

Cooler than normal high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s
are forecast for Saturday under below average geopotential heights
and a northwest low level flow. Highs are expected to rise back into
the 70s for the rest of the period as a west to southwest flow
brings normal to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop very early in the period.
There will be some showers and some embedded thunderstorms from
KDAY to KCMH/KLCK which will be north of the track of a surface
low that will pass across the area this afternoon. OTher TAF
sites will be south of the low. So it appears that low clouds
will break for several hours. But this will allow heating which
will result in thunderstorms, generally between 21Z and 00Z.
After the low passes east, MVFR ceilings will settle across the
entire area with some lingering showers. It is not out of the
question that lower ceilings could start to lift very late in
the period, but confidence is too low to include this in the
TAFs at this time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...