Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050039 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 739 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE TRAVELING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SLEET CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE...WITH TRANSITION TO SNOW COMPLETE...UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM CVG SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL ROUGHLY THE SAME CATEGORY OF OBSERVATIONS. GETTING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" GENERALLY SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS...BUT OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT FORECAST THE SAME. PREV NEAR TERM DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX ESSENTIALLY IN THE CURRENTLY DEFINED FLOOD WATCH AREA. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW TIMING WITH THE BEST MOISTURE PUSH CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I71 CORRIDOR AND INTO SE INDIANA. CONTINUED TO USE A QPF BLEND FROM 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF AND HI RES ARW. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE FAR SE FORECAST AREAS HAVE BUMPED TOTALS UP VERY SLIGHTLY HERE. THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN THE SHARP GRADIENT AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY JUNCTURE. WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FCST AREA IN BEST POSITION WITH RELATION TO THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION LOCATION AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...POTENTIAL FOR BANDING AND HEAVY ACCUMULATION AT TIMES IS HIGHEST ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALSO BASED ON CHANGING TEMPERATURE REGIME...WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY NOW NEAR 30-32...SO LOW SNOW/WATER RATIOS TO BEGIN THE EVENT WITH HIGHER RATIOS ESPECIALLY NEAR/AFTER 06Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES. AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH -10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED. COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS. SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. ALL SITES CAN EXPECT IFR THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 1 MILE IN MODERATE SNOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER THE SNOW MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ063>065- 071>074-077>082-088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ054>056- 062-070. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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