Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 190011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
711 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance
tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to
be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the
next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak returns are currently near interstate 71 this afternoon
with light rain being reported at KCVG. Across the south
temperatures have been a bit suppressed this afternoon thanks
to widespread cloud cover while across the northeast
temperatures have risen very quickly. KCMH has already broken
its record high temperature for this afternoon as of 1230pm. The
upper level low over Arkansas will continue to push east this
afternoon helping to keep the precipitation mostly across the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the
northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with
moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night
and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and
briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and
GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level
trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8
degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the
lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday
will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall
have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended stretch of above normal temperatures will continue
from Monday through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 60s
are expected with some isolated 70s also possible Monday,
Tuesday, and Friday.
A weak cold front will move through Tuesday allowing for some
shower activity. A frontal boundary will meander around the
area Thursday into Thursday night allowing for showers and a
chance of thunderstorms.
Winds will be gusty on Friday as the front lifts north and
southerly flow increases. A strong cold front moves through
Friday night. Thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday into
Friday night with the front. This front will signal a chance to
cooler conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Some very
light snow cannot be ruled out on the back edge of this system
and with some of the wrap around moisture.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain is continuing to fall in an area of mid level
deformation stretching from northern Kentucky into south
central Ohio early this evening. This deformation axis is
forecast to gradually weaken through the evening hours and any
pcpn associated with it in the meantime should remain to the
southeast of the TAF sites.
The low level flow will veer to the northwest overnight as a
weak front sags down from the north. The majority of both the
synoptic and high res models are fairly aggressive saturating
the lower levels below about 1000 feet as we head through the
overnight hours. This may be a bit overdone but there is
definitely a signal there for some lower vsbys and/or cigs.
Will therefore allow for some IFR vsby and cig restrictions
later tonight and into the morning hours on Sunday. Drier air
will start to work down from the north through the day and this
should allow for improving conditions through the later
portions of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)