Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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162 FXUS63 KIND 201416 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 917 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Warm temperatures will continue through the work week, with colder weather arriving for the weekend. A front will bring rain chances Tuesday, with a stronger frontal system bringing more rain Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM.../Rest of Today/ Issued at 844 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Observing equipment show very low visibility this morning across most locations in the forecast area, with a quarter mile or less being the general rule. Earlier satellite product showed fog was fairly deep in some spots, and with light winds and some cirrus overhead improvement is slow to come. Thus extended advisory through 11 am, by which point increased winds and sunshine should allow for widespread improvement. After the fog burns off late morning, expect sunshine for this afternoon. This should allow temperatures to get near the warmer of the MOS numbers, in the mid 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/ Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. A front will move into the area late tonight. Looks like forcing/moisture won`t arrive until after midnight, so will keep the evening dry. The better forcing/moisture really don`t arrive most areas until Tuesday, so will go chance or lower PoPs for most of the area. An upper trough and the surface front will move across the area on Tuesday. Forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs most areas during the morning. As the system exits, PoPs will lower during the afternoon, with a lingering chance into Tuesday evening east. Wednesday should be warm and dry with the area in between systems. A surface low moving through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front in on Wednesday night, but moisture and forcing are too limited for any rain. Went above MOS for highs in the west on Tuesday with that area seeing more sun. Raised everywhere on Wednesday as guidance has been too cool. && .LONG TERM.../Thursday Through Sunday/ Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Rain chances will return Thursday as a front returns north across the area as a warm front. Better chances will arrive on Friday as a strong cold front moves through and ends the Spring like temperatures. With strong winds aloft and decent low level moisture moving in, some strong to severe storms could accompany the front. Northern areas could see some light wrap-around precipitation on Saturday, otherwise dry conditions look to be the rule for the weekend. Temperatures will be closer to average for the weekend. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 201500Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 917 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Updated to improve conditions at KLAF and KHUF up to IFR, and to delay improvement at KIND and KBMG for another couple of hours. Otherwise the rest of the day looks on track. Previous discussion follows... VLIFR conditions expected early in the period, with VFR returning by 16-18Z. MVFR conditions possible again late tonight. Dense fog continues across most sites early this morning. KLAF has come up, but expect dense fog to move back in by valid time. The fog will gradually improve through the morning with VFR conditions returning by 16-18Z. Mid and high clouds will increase this evening as a cold front approaches. Scattered showers will move in after 06Z, and ceilings will continue to lower. MVFR ceilings are possible once again after 09Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST for all of central Indiana. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50/CP SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50/CP

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