Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KIND 262020 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 419 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. NEXT SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH CONSENSUS TEMP NUMBERS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SOME CONCERN ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS...BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MPH...WILL ONLY CARRY PATCHY FROST AT MOST. DOES NOT MERIT FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAIN SYSTEM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE. GIVEN MIN TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL AGAIN CARRY PATCHY FROST. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER TOMORROW NIGHT...AND THIS MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE DROPS MIN TEMPS FURTHER. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON MIN TEMPS...PERHAPS A BIT COOL GIVEN THE STRONG SUN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S BY MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 FIRST CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A LOT OF MOISTURE. THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE LATE WEEKEND POPS AS EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEY ALSO HAVE WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH A MODEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL LATE WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DID INCLUDE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AT 5K FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH 23Z. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MK/JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.