Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 261445 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .UPDATE...
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The Aviation section has been updated below.
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&& .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Off and on storm chances will continue until mid way through the weekend when upper ridging reestablishes over the area. Near normal temperatures should be the rule through most of the period, with Wednesday looking like the warmest day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Some adjustment to pops required per radar trends, but otherwise forecast in good shape. Previous dicussion follows. Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Could see some patchy fog near daybreak with dew point depressions of only a degree or two in several spots across the forecast area, but that should burn off or mix out quickly after sunrise. Hi res guidance shows a line of showers and thunderstorms forming along a boundary currently stalled out across southern central Indiana by if not before mid morning and hanging around into the afternoon/evening hours before moving off to the southeast. Think coverage could be somewhat overdone given several runs have been showing more currently than what is seen on radar over Illinois and moisture looks overdone. However enough potential there to bring in high chance pops along the southern border this afternoon and ramp up to it this morning. For temperatures most solutions are in the mid 80s, and think this is reasonable given the potential for cloud cover throughout much of the day and some rain. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Tonight will see the boundary shift south and the storm chances should go with it. Will leave a slight chance in the south as a wave moves along the front. On Wednesday increased to a chance along the far southern border as the front could start to move back north. For Wednesday night through Thursday night, a stronger upper wave should combine with the front to produce some solid thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and with likely PoPs in the south and southeast Thursday. Chances continue to Thursday night and beyond. For temperatures think mainly mid 80s are a good bet given the potential for thunderstorms and cloud cover through most of the period and cooler 850 mb temperatures. Possible exception to this is on Wednesday when PoPs are confined to the southern counties and thus could see upper 80s especially north where ample sunshine is possible. At this point looks like axis of heavy rainfall will set up south of the area, but will need to monitor with upcoming forecasts repeat development along the boundary if it becomes stationary rather than meandering. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 ECMWF suggests a low pressure system and cyclonic flow pushing through the Great Lakes and Indiana on Friday and Saturday. Aloft ECMWF suggests a weak...broad trough in place across the upper midwest and great lakes. Superblend keeps chc pops in place as these features passes...which seems reasonable. As the low moves to the east coast on Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure...ridging and subsidence is expected as depicted by the ECMWF. Given this and the relatively cooler and drier air mass that is expected across the area...have tried to add value to the forecast by removing pops as suggested by superblend. && .AVIATION /discussion for the 261500Z IND TAF Update/...
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Issued at 1045 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Added an MVFR tempo thunderstorm groupd from 16z-18z based on radar and lightning trends. Also, switched winds to east to start off and increased to 7 knots. Previous discussion follows... Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 VFR conditions are expected this taf period. Tropical plume of moisture streaming across southern Indiana along with a weak short wave will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning across the southern 1/2 of the Indiana. Furthermore...the remnants of the weak frontal boundary remain across the southern parts of the state...providing lower level convergence. Forecast soundings and time height sections show a saturated column though the morning hours...followed by drying late in the day. Rapid refresh...albeit a bit over aggressive...also appears to denote this trend. Precise timing seems uncertain...but for now will use vcsh/vcts window at IND/BMG/HUF through 17Z-20Z. LAF appears to be too far north from the frontal boundary for precip mention and have left it out there.
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&& .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...JP/MK

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