Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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468 FXUS63 KIND 302026 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 426 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 High pressure will remain in control across central Indiana through Tuesday night. An upper level system will swing through the Great Lakes region midweek bringing chances for storms on Wednesday and lingering into Thursday. Cooler and drier weather will return to end the work week before precipitation chances return for the second half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 A quiet night to cap off a beautiful Memorial Day. A few high clouds will begin to filter into the area from the west ahead of the area`s next storm system. Bumped up low temperatures accordingly across the west to account for this, resulting in readings expected to range from the low 60s in the east to the mid 60s in the west. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 More humid air will return to the region on Tuesday as the surface ridge departs and southwest flow aloft increases ahead of an upper low across the Northern Plains. Even with increasing cloud cover ahead of this system, another day with high temperatures topping out in the mid 80s is expected. As the upper low tracks across northern Minnesota and southwest Ontario, the first in a series of associated waves will propagate through central Indiana on Wednesday. At this time, scattered storms look to form ahead of a cold front currently progged to cross the Illinois/Indiana state line Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will spread across the area overnight but thunder chances could be minimal as MUCAPE values quickly drop off throughout the evening. More seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday following the passage of the cold front. Precipitation chances will quickly decrease from west to east throughout the day with dry weather returning by Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 Model ensembles dig an upper trough into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley during the long term. A cold front near the Ohio River Thursday evening will move on to the south. Will mention a slight chance of thunderstorms far south Thursday evening. Then dry and seasonal weather will be the rule through early Saturday as high pressure moves east across our region. Another cold front will move across our region around Sunday and we could see a few storms Late Saturday into Sunday. The Euro is dry after that while the GFS indicates trace QPF Monday as the Great Lakes upper trough deepens. Will lean towards the dry end of guidance envelope after Sunday. Made a few tweaks in temperatures but overall SuperBlend temperatures seem reasonable. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/2100Z TAF Update/... Issued at 425 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016 UPDATE... No changes. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VFR conditions through the period. High pressure centered over southern Illinois will drift east across the area. Will see scattered cu this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Otherwise, only thin high clouds other periods and no visibility issues expected. Winds will remain less than 10 kt. && .IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEE NEAR TERM...LEE SHORT TERM...LEE LONG TERM....JH AVIATION...JH/TDUD

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