Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 271647 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1147 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TO OHIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OUR WAY BY LATE TONIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD SUNDAY...BUT THEN A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THAT. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST THROUGH THE HEART OF DIXIE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS ONGOING AMID NORTHERLY FLOW. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. THUS ANY BREAKS THAT DO OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN WITH STRATOCU. WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. EXPECT ONGOING FLURRIES TO SLOWLY TREND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING TREND A LITTLE SATURDAY AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS SATURDAY BELOW THE INVERSION. WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. IN MOST CASES...WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST SUPERBLEND SEEMS KIND OF HIGH WITH CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SINCE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING. HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT ALSO SEEMS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE...SO WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DURATION OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/18Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 WIDESPREAD MVFR PRESENT OVER THE MIDWEST IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS UP TO LOW END VFR...EXPECT THIS TO LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CEILINGS ERODE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 10-15KT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AROUND 8KT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...TDUD AVIATION...NIELD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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