Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 220446 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1246 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 UPDATE... INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS...FURTHER INHIBITING FROST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE AT BEST FOR FROST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE IT OUT. DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...SMF AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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