Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KIND 162023 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 423 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR/DIURNAL LOOK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR NO LATER THAN THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS COULD REFORM TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE REMAINING ISSUE OF NOTE. UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS IS A BIT TOO WARM...AND MOS BLEND CLOSER TO REALITY WITH NUMBERS LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA...NEARER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...SAVE FOR UPPER 40S IN THE METRO DUE TO URBAN EFFECTS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT AND GOOD SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...FEEL THE MOS BLEND IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING DURING THE DAY AND HAVE TEMPERED THESE NUMBERS BACK A BIT TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. MOS BLEND LOOKS BEST AT THE COOL END DURING THE OVERNIGHTS GIVEN THE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AN UPPER TROUGH EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED. SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION AS IT SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION REASONABLY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AS WE BEGIN THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 162100Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LAF...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AND RISEN ENOUGH TO WARRANT VFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY 2100Z. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEEPING WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF MOST SITES GETTING DOWN TO 3SM...4SM AT IND. BE ADVISED THAT IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND BMG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 1200 TO 1300Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MRD/50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.