Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 020656 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .UPDATE...
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THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
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&& .SYNOPSIS...
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ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WEEK WILL SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM...
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/TODAY/ ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGEST STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RESIDE. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS RADAR SHOWS RAIN EXTENDING WELL BACK INTO MISSOURI AND AN UPPER JET STILL MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS STEERING WINDS VEER AND BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL GO HIGH POPS BEFORE 12Z AND USE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD IN THE TEXT FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AFTER 12Z WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTH BUT TAPER TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS MORNING HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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/TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. MAV MAY BE OVERDOING EXTENT OF DRIER AIR THAT WORKS INTO THE AREA SINCE FLOW REMAINS MORE ZONAL. WILL GO WARMER THAN MAV MOS FOR LOWS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN FORCING DOESN/T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. SREF POPS ARE LOW SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. NOT SURE THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP AND SREF POPS ARE AGAIN LOW...BUT SINCE MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY HAD POPS IN DID NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THEN TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGIONAL BLEND GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY EXPECTED TO DROP OFF MARKEDLY TO THE 70S BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE SHORTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ENE FROM ILLINOIS AND SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE SITES BY AROUND 6Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN OVER THE SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE MOVES THEM OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS TRENDED THEM MOVING OUT A LITTLE FASTER ESPECIALLY AT KLAF BUT STAYING THE LONGEST AT KBMG. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME IFR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS SHOULD MIX CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...CP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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