Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 240819 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 419 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Aviation section updated
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&& .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A series of upper lows and surface low pressure systems will keep frequent chances for rain in the forecast into next week. Temperatures will be near to above average through the period. && .NEAR TERM.../Today/ Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Upper ridging will help keep the area dry today, but an increase in clouds is expected with moisture and some isentropic lift in a warm advection pattern. With the cloud cover increasing, didn`t go as warm as the model blend for high temperatures. However, did go warmer than some of the MOS numbers. The result is highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Some of the stronger winds not too far off the surface may mix down at times today, providing wind gusts around 30 mph. && .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/ Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper ridging will move out of the area tonight as an upper low begins to move closer to the forecast area. While there will be a decent flow of moisture into the area, it looks like better forcing will hold off until Saturday. Will keep the evening dry, then allow for some increase in PoPs overnight. Far western areas will see likely PoPs very late tonight, with chance category or lower PoPs elsewhere. During the day Saturday as the upper low gets closer upper overall forcing will increase. Moisture will continue to move in on a good southerly flow. Will go likely or higher PoPs most areas by late afternoon. The upper low will keep providing good forcing across much of the area Saturday night and Sunday morning, requiring likely category or higher PoPs. Chances will begin to diminish later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as the low moves off to the northeast. Temperatures will remain mild with upper flow generally remaining south to southwest. Stayed with the model blend`s temperatures. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... Issued at 158 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 ECMWF suggests lingering rain showers will remain in the area on Monday as another upper level short wave is poised to push through the Ohio Valley. A surface low will accompany this system on Monday...pushing across Indiana. Thus have included pops continuing on Monday. Dry weather should return on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ECMWF suggests High pressure building at the surface with Ridging in place aloft. An Intrusion of cold air seems unlikely as the ridging builds within the southwest flow aloft. THus will trend temps at or above seasonal normals. By Thursday...return flow of warmer and perhaps more humid air begins as surface high pressure is east of Indiana. Forecast Builder blend appears to overplay pops here given the uncertainty and the apparent lack of dynamics. Thus have trended to a dry forecast on Thursday where possible. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 240900Z IND Taf Update/...
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VFR Conditions continue to persist at the TAF Sites...with warm southerly flow in place. Satellite shows only a few high cloud in place across Central Indiana. No significant changes to the ongoing TAF. Previous Discussion Below /Discussion for 240600Z TAFS/... Issued at 1230 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 VFR visibility through the period. VFR decks drop to MVFR around 2000 feet AGL from 241500z-241900z as moist lower layer advects northward from Kentucky in warm frontal type behavior. Low level wind shear overnight but as warm frontal layer overtakes the area Friday, surface winds will become increasingly gusty, especially when lower decks rise and break for the afternoon hours Friday.
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&& .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...Ryan/JP

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