Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 211850 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WELL. NEXT WEEK ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/ ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 MOST CONVECTION HAS EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO THE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 90 SOUTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY SET UP BETWEEN THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND THE HOT HUMID AIR. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT AN UPPER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL GO HIGH CHANCE NORTH /CLOSER TO THE ENERGY/ TO DRY EXTREME SOUTHWEST /CLOSEST TO THE UPPER HIGH/. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER. FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS. && .SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION BUT ALL GENERALLY SHOW THE IDEA. STUCK WITH A BLEND. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD LINGER FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MORE CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN OLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA. WILL GO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST TO DRY FAR SOUTHWEST. WITH FRONT AROUND THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...KEPT SIMILAR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY GETS MORE CONTROL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODELS STILL TRY AND CREATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THAT THIS IS REASONABLE WITH MOST INFLUENCE OF UPPER HIGH BEING FELT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WENT LOW CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH GAINING MORE INFLUENCE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FRIDAY GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. MAV LOOKS BETTER SATURDAY WITH MORE SUN SO STAYED CLOSE MOST AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL GET NEAR 100 MANY AREAS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY THOUGH AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL MEANDER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE TIME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW...LATEST INITIALIZATION CAPTURES PATTERN WELL WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS...HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. TEMPS WILL BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF TAF PERIOD IS TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT A WARM FRONT AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLAF AND KIND AFTER FRI 06Z WHEN A WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS EXTRA FORCING COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT MOST FAVORABLE OVER THOSE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE FRI 06-12Z TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 8 KTS. $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM..TDUD AVIATION...TDUD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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