Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 230832 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 432 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE HUMID AND WARM AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW...BUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT IT WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...STUCK AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW FOCUSING IN ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AFTER SUN 09Z...BUT THE BEST LIFT WILL FALL DURING THE MON 12-18Z TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT...DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY... WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE IT WAS WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING ALL PERIODS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. CONFIDENCE IS GREAT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND AC AND DIURNAL SCATTERED CU 5K FEET OR ABOVE AFTER 15Z. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM....SMF AVIATION...SMF/KOCH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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