Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 211652 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1252 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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The AVIATION section has been updated below.
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&& .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A departing ridge of high pressure will provide one more quiet day across central Indiana, before an approaching frontal system returns chances for rain to the area late tonight into the middle of next week. Temperatures in the wake of the system will turn sharply cooler next week. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Broad southwest flow aloft will develop across the area today as a ridge of high pressure moves off to the east. As a result, expect more mid and high level cloud cover today as moisture streams northward from the Gulf. Still should get a decent amount of filtered sunshine, so will likely see temperatures rise well into the 70s yet again. Consensus temperatures were generally in the ballpark with minor tweaks. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Models have been trending slower with the arrival of precipitation from the coming slow moving frontal system. As a result have made similar adjustments in grids, with first pops in the far west after 09Z tonight. Models differ somewhat in their handling of a closed upper level low that breaks off from the sharp upper trough over the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night into Monday, and then is pulled northeast as a more substantial upper level trough drops into the region. There is general agreement in a logical progression however, with the development of the secondary system slowing passage of the original front and prolonging precipitation chances through and beyond the end of the short term, along with the precipitation potential from the approaching and more substantial upper trough. Tough to argue with consensus pops and these were generally acceptable. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with frontal passage, particularly Sunday afternoon and evening, but SREF thunder probabilities are quite low during this period and near zero at other times, so have left this out of the current forecast. Similarly, consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout, although they may be high on max temps Monday depending on coverage of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday Night/... Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 An active pattern is still expected across central Indiana as a couple upper lows move through during the period. The first will bring rain showers and cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will only top off in the 50s with lows in the upper 30s. So, there is potential for frost at night. Thursday, ridging will strengthen over the area, resulting in dry conditions until Thursday night. That`s when additional chances for rain showers will enter the forecast area with another upper trough. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Thursday, but will quickly turn cold again by the weekend. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 211800Z TAF Issuance)...
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Issued at 1252 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Confidence is high that VFR conditions will be the rule. Expect low level wind shear during the night. Mid and high clouds will be the rule through the night, with ceilings lowering from west to east on Sunday (but still VFR) as a cold front approaches from the west. A few showers are possible during the morning Sunday at the western sites, but expected coverage is too low to put in TAF that far out. Winds off the surface will increase during the evening, creating low level wind shear conditions for the night. Mixing will occur Sunday morning, generating surface gusts to near 25kt.
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&& .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...Nield SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...50

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