Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 192343 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 643 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 205 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER INTO SUNDAY AS ITS CENTER SHIFTS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY THE MOST IMPORTANT INFLUENCE ON HOOSIER WEATHER IS GOING TO BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EAST...GAINING STRENGTH AS IT DOES. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE ARRIVED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY...VERY...STRONG AND CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATE CHRISTMAS DAY ITS INFLUENCE ON INDIANA WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO QUEBEC. FRIDAY OUR WEATHER IS PREDICTED COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PLAINS. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 205 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 THE MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDINESS AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLEARING DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW STRATUS MOVING TOWARD THE CLEAR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND CLOUDS WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOUDY. THE MODELS AGREE BY LATE SATURDAY THE SHORT WAVE IS GOING TO BE TO OUR EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRYING. THEY ALSO AGREE WE WILL BE UNDER AN INVERSION ON THE EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE WITH 925 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS STRATUS. SATURDAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE SOUTHWEST MIGHT GET A LITTLE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DAMPEN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES CHANGES. MAV AND MET MINIMUMS ARE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THEY LOOK OK CONSIDERING WHAT WE HAVE NOW. THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LATELY. THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES ARE PREFERRED SATURDAY. POSSIBLY EVEN THEY WILL BE TOO WARM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 205 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES. SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RECENTLY. HOWEVER AS THAT HAPPENS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WE CAN EXPECT CLOUDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. THE RESULT IS GOING TO BE DAMPENED TEMPERATURE CHANGES...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE TO EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK SINCE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MID LEVEL AS OPPOSED TO LOW LEVEL. GUIDANCE TEMPERATES MAY BE OK SATURDAY NIGHT CONSIDERING WHAT DAYTIME READINGS WILL BE. AFTER THAT THE COOLER MET LOOKS BETTER FOR SUNDAY AND THE WARMER MAV FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL COUNTERACT THICKENING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY RAIN AS A WARM FRONT FORMS OVER US. TEMPERATURES COULD SURGE INTO THE 50S OR STAY IN THE 40S DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER. A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEX AND THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE WILL BE USED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO HIT CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT CONSENSUS FOR THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. EURO AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A RATHER STRONG CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...BUT ANTICIPATE THESE CHANCES TO INCREASE IN COMING DAYS. AT THIS TIME...BEST VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THE COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SINCE BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALREADY BE TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AND TRAVEL HAZARDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 AN INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW END VFR BY SAT AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BASED ON LAST 4-5 DAYS...BELIEVE EVEN IF THIS DOES HAPPEN AT A FEW OF THE SITES IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ALL TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO MFVR BY SAT EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...SMF VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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