Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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815 FXUS63 KIND 142126 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 425 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT BUT COULD GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW OR A PRECIPITATION MIX. TUESDAY A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM AND OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 3 PM WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A MILE VISIBILITY IN MOST LOCATIONS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ACCUMULATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 6 PM IN THE WEST. MODELS SHOW SOME FORCING WILL PIVOT BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 8 TO 11 PM BRINGING A COUPLE MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT BUT STILL A LITTLE UPWARD MOTION IN THE LOW SATURATED LEVELS...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT CAUSING SOME ADDITIONAL SLICKNESS ON UNTREATED ROADS. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DONE BY AROUND 6-9 PM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO EXTEND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP AND IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEADY WITH WARM ADVECTION COMBATING DIURNAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW AND PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA COULD KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AS IT PULLS AWAY. THEN A SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UP TO OHIO COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD SEE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON TUESDAY THE BEST FORCING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SEEN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING LIKELY PRECIPITATION WITH IT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BRINGING IT RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE IN THE RANGE WHERE A DEGREE OR TWO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AND BRINGING FIRST A MIX TO THE SOUTH AND THEN RAIN TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX CENTRAL. COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BUT LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL HIT QUICKLY AND BE ON ITS WAY SO CHANCES DROP OFF RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN BY SUNDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES IN MOST CASES. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ALL TAFS BASED ON LATEST OBS TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW HAS ENDED AT LAF/HUF AND WILL END AT IND/BMG WITHIN THE NEXT 30- 90 MINUTES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 2030Z UPDATE...EXTENDED TEMPO GROUP AT MAINLY KIND FOR 1/4AM SN AND FZFG OUT ANOTHER HOUR BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HERE AND UPSTREAM. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY 23Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AREA OF SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO INDIANA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND STILL MOSTLY IFR EARLY TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THOUSAND AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO 6 MILES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY MONDAY...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY ON... BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028- 029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....JH AVIATION...SMF/JH/NIELD

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