Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 232245 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.
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&& .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A Cold front over Central Indiana will push east and exit the state tonight. Rain will end late this afternoon and evening as the front passes. High pressure centered over the western plains states will then build across the Indiana and the Great Lakes...providing cooler and drier NW flow. This will result in dry and pleasant weather this weekend...with below normal temperatures and comfortable humidities. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will be expected for much of next week due to the strong high pressure system to the west. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
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Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Planning on canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as the heavy rain threat has pushed out of the forecast area. Lingering shower activity over the southeast zones will probably end around 240100Z. Previous discussion follows. Surface analysis shows a Cold front across NW Indiana stretching to East Central Illinois to SE Missouri. Radar trends show a band of showers ahead of the front across central Indiana. Some of the showers continue to produce very heavy rain with the very moist tropical air mass in place. GFS and NAM continue to suggest a SE progression of the surface cold front which will effectively push the stream of moisture SE and out of Central Indiana. Rapid refresh suggests that by 00Z...only the far southeastern parts of the forecast area will still be impacted by rain. HRRR progression after that suggests the forecast area should be rain free by 03Z. Time heights show a complete loss of forcing and strong drying within the column after 00Z with subsidence. Significant air mass change is also expected as dew points in the lower 60s and upper 50s...as seen in NRN Illinois...are set to arrive in the wake of the front. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast tonight...especially across the NW where Rain will have ended. May need to keep some pops for the first 1-2 hours after 00Z across the SE where rain may not have exited yet. Models suggest strong cold air advection tonight and will trend lows at or below the expected forecast builder blend.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 GFS and NAM suggest a large broad trough in place across the Great lakes and Ohio valley through Monday. Several weak...poorly organized disturbances look to pass within the flow...but best dynamics look to remain well north of Central Indiana. Time height sections continue to show a dry column through Monday. Forecast soundings through Monday also show a dry column...but attainable convective temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. However on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons...forecast soundings show a good mid level inversion that should just result in some flat topped CU. Furthermore CAPE appears really limited with values less than 300 J/KG. Thus with dew points in the 50s and high in the 70s expected for this period...comfortable...pleasant and not humid weather is expected. Thus will trend toward Partly cloudy days and Mostly clear nights. Forecast soundings hint at slightly more CAPE on Monday afternoon and less of a mid level cap. Forecast blender may try to insert pops here...however...confidence remains very low at this point given the NW flow expected and a lack of deep moisture. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Next week will generally begin a bit cooler than normal and with a spotty shower possible as an upper low exits the Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm gradually, returning to near normal during the week as upper level flow becomes more zonal and then weakly anticyclonic by week`s end. A frontal zone will move toward the region during the latter portion of the week, returning thunderstorm chances to the area. Blended initialization handled things well and only minor tweaks were necessary. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 240000Z TAFS/... Issued at 636 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Lingering shower activity expected to pass off to the southeast of the terminals by issuance time based on radar loop. Satellite shows rapid clearing of the lower cloud cover over northwestern Indiana, so expected most of the cloud cover below 050 to scatter out during the early evening hours. Some concern about fog development later tonight given today`s rainfall, but with drier air advecting in, confidence is low at this time. Surface winds 330-350 degrees at 9-12 kts early this evening will diminish to 5-8 kts after dark and gradually back to 290-310 degrees by sunrise Saturday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma/JAS SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...NIELD AVIATION...JAS

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