Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 301423 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1023 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 14Z UPDATE...REALLY DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST. THOUGHT ABOUT INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST NAM TRENDS BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/DW PTS/SKY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE ESPECIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FUELED BY THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH /ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE INCREASES LIFT AFTER WED 18Z...SUPPORTED BY WEAK ENHANCEMENT IN VORTICITY AT 500 MB. SO...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH...AND DRY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY SINCE THOSE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...A MORE DEFINED SHORT WAVE IS PROVIDING A DECENT VORT MAX IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH JUSTIFIES CARRYING CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BREAK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND FALL UNDER MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAK WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANGING PATTERN...SO CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 LONG TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS KEPT IT COOL ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE JAMES BAY VORTEX WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE ICELANDIC LOW BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...REMNANT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO END ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. FINALLY...MODELS HINT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. REGIONAL BLEND HAS THE RIGHT IDEA REGARDING RISING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN STATES AND DAMPENS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 80S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY MONDAY OR EARLIER. && .AVIATION /UPDATE TO 301200Z KIND TAF/... ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES MADE. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT DURING A THUNDERSTORM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE... ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 ANY FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z WITH PATCHES OF MORNING AC AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AFTER 17Z...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MET...SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL VFR CU WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT IND AND LAF. WILL GO WITH VCTS THROUGH 23Z THERE. THEN...WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER COULD SEE SOME MORE MVFR OR WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...TUCEK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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