Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 012338 CCA AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 636 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MIXING AT TIMES...LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE COUPLED WITH DEEPLY FROZEN GROUND AND A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. QUIETER BUT COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 FINAL BANDS OF SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME. ONE FINAL BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR 00Z...AND WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH ESPECIALLY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ENDING EVERYTHING LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED AND ROADS MAY REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN SOME AREAS...SO WILL LET THE HEADLINES RIDE AS IS UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME AT 7 PM. EVENING SHIFT MAY CANCEL EARLY AS NEEDED. EXPECT TEMPS TO GET DOWN WELL INTO THE TEENS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SINGLE DIGIT READINGS DEPENDING ON HOW LOW DEWPOINTS CAN GET ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH EXTREMELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF A PROGGED 70KT LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MAY REQUIRE SOME SORT OF HEADLINE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AND AN EVENT STILL ONGOING/WINDING DOWN WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR NOW AND RELY ON HWO/GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT NEXT THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT...FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE...OR MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT APPROACHING ONE INCH IN SPOTS...WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY MELTING AS THE EVENT WEARS ON. THE GROUND IS ALSO FROZEN FAIRLY DEEPLY AND WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WARM THAN THE AIR OBVIOUSLY...WHICH MEANS THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY CONVERTED TO RUNOFF. ADDITIONALLY...URBAN FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM AS PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW CLOGS STREET DRAINS AND ALLOWS RUNOFF TO POOL ON ROADS. PROBABILISTIC QPF PROGS PLACE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN RAINFALL APPROACHING ONE INCH MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. USED CONSENSUS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 PM SUN MAR 1 2015 LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE EURO AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS A COUPLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -17 CELSIUS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME OVER THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. IN MOST CASES A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MVFR WITH KBMG REMAINING IFR FOR MOST THE NIGHT. THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY LATER MONDAY MORNING ALL SITES. THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND/OR DROP S/SE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY AT KBMG) WILL HANG ON THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...SMF VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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