Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 161940 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 340 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .UPDATE...
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The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.
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&& .SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A frontal system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana through Thursday evening. After that dry weather will move in to end the week, but the weekend could begin with a shower or storm on Saturday. After that look for dry conditions and mostly clear skies until late Monday night, along with slowly increasing temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
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Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Will see chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the next few hours initially, then drop off, then increase again later tonight from the west as a surface frontal system impacts the area. With the forcing and ample moisture should see some precip coverage and mostly cloudy skies, but capping over the area is keeping extent limited thus far and will likely continue to impede development. Convection allowing models continue to show development over Illinois moving this way but deteriorating as it gets close to the forecast area, likely due to the aforementioned capping. Better potential for more shower coverage will arrive late during the overnight ahead of the approaching cold front, but with that time of day thunder should be only isolated to widely scattered. Low temperatures should remain in the low 70s with southerly flow and more cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
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Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A cold front will be moving through the area on Thursday and it will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Could see some instability build ahead of the front, and should there be breaks in the clouds could develop some steep lapse rates rather quickly. That said, dynamics are not impressive over this area, so expect severe threat to be limited. For the western counties, expect the front to move through during the morning with less of an opportunity for much development other than showers with embedded thunderstorms, but the eastern counties could see more thunderstorm coverage. Expect temperatures to reach the mid 80s under warm southwesterly flow but not a lot of sunshine. Confidence is moderate, with some model differences in timing and coverage. After the front passes, could still see some showers in its wake with the passage of the upper trough early Thursday night, but by late Thursday night have removed all pops. High pressure will briefly pass through, but another upper wave could bring a slight chance for a shower or storm on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper trough exiting the region Saturday will bring precipitation chances with it, and dry weather will prevail Saturday night into Monday night. The next short wave trough will approach Monday night with a low chance of precipitation. It`s associated surface trough and increased moisture flow ahead of it will bring more widespread showers and scattered storms Tuesday that will exit the area Wednesday. Temperatures through the period will be should be within just a few degrees above seasonal norms, and blended initialization handled this well. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 161800z TAF issuance/... Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Prevailing VFR conditions at the sites today and tonight with chances for showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon on. Scattered cu decks may go broken, but they are above 3000 ft. If a shower/storm moves over a site, expect to see MVFR/IFR visibilities for a brief time, but the probability of this is fairly low. May include some mention of thunder and possibly a tempo vsby reduction at KHUF given current radar trends, but elsewhere probability for impact at a site is low. Chances for rain and storms will increase Thursday as a cold front approaches, but for now will include this as either VCSH or -SHRA and a broken VFR deck. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....Tucek AVIATION...CP

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