Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 010356 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH 23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET. PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE AGAIN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE ORGANIZED SOLUTION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z. CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD/50 SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...MB/CP AVIATION...JP

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