Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 060340 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL FINALLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF INDIANA ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING EVEN WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEST WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS INDIANA BY SUNDAY...BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A FEW DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. THESE SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 060300Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...DRIFTING SOUTH QUICKLY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AMID LIGHT NW FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN AS DO THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. GIVEN THE LIMITED ADVECTION...WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 PLEASANT WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO DRIFT SOUTH OF INDIANA...ALLOWING WARMER AND WESTERLY FLOW TO ARRIVE CENTRAL INDIANA. AGAIN TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE FULL SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MUCH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A THERMAL RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH OF SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 15C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80...WHICH SHOULD BE REACHABLE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CHANCES FRO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND DAYTIME HEATING MAXES OUT. WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. THE PASSING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERINGS IN THE AREA. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH...WHERE THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS FAR SOUTH ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITRY TO THE STALLED FRONT. WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH...AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 MODELS DEPICT AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CONSENSUS ASIDE TO PERHAPS NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT OWING TO POTENTIAL PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER INFLUENCES. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME AC INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST 16Z-18Z. NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM...NIELD AVIATION...MK

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