Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 170825 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 424 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .UPDATE...
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THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
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&& .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH. ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT... THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEEKEND FRONTAL SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY AND REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SYSTEM STILL TO THE WEST. CURRENT RUNS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING SO ADDED SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST THEN. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
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ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING EXPECTED BY AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY 00Z.
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&& .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...50/CP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

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