Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KIND 250342 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/... ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM. MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL START AT 06Z. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THEY WILL DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50/JAS SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...TDUD AVIATION...KOCH VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.