Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 271720 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY... CAUSING MORE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP SHOULD RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH AND HAS JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES HAD TEMPORARILY CLEARED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WAS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED THE 12KM NAM THAT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERNS THAT THE NAM DRYS OUT THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS TOO FAST. THE RAIN CHANCE DIFFERENCE IS NOTICEABLE AT HILLSDALE MICHIGAN WITH A MET RAIN CHANCE OF 4 PERCENT VS A GFS RAIN CHANCE OF 31 PERCENT. FOR NOW... HAVE KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC AND DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES LATER TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH WITH ONE LAST NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF WITH ANY FROST ADVISORY GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED AND GIVEN RECENT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS JUST A FEW NIGHTS AGO. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 UPR RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUE PROVIDING FAIR WX AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE L-M60S. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MID-WEEK UPR LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS... THOUGH SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT DOES SEEM LIKELY IS THAT THE LOW OVER TX TODAY WILL MOVE TO TN/KY WED AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GRTLKS. 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NE PORTION OF OUR CWA WED... BUT WAS DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. DID FCST A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WED NGT AND THU WITH COOLER TEMPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPER GFS. THE OH VALLEY LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRI WITH ROCKIES RIDGE MOVG TO THE GRTLKS AS ZONAL FLOW DVLPS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX WITH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WK SHRTWV`S MOVG EAST THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING ALBEIT WK INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST A LOW BUT SLOWLY INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA BUT LATEST OBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OVERNIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR.
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&& .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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