Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 241052 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 652 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer conditions are expected today, as highs this afternoon reach into the 60`s and low 70`s. Expect mostly cloudy skies with gusty southwest winds. Rain will move in tonight and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather is not expected. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 50`s and 60`s. Lows will be in the 40`s and 50`s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 The main story for today will be high temperatures, cloud cover, and gusty winds. Rain moves in tonight. A Ridge at 300mb/500mb builds over the CWA through tonight, with a cut off low situated over the central plains. Under south-southwest return flow from the Gulf, we`ll see moisture and warm temps advect into the region this afternoon and tonight. While low levels continue to moisten through the day, drier air exists aloft with associated subsidence from the upper level ridge. At the surface today, a warm front will lift northeastward into Michigan. It stalls out and remains stationary through roughly Saturday as the low to our west approaches and occludes. Some models kick of precipitation, but think this is overdone given the drier mid levels. I think the main thing we will see out of this activity is cloud cover giving limited forcing, given the stronger inversion just below 850 hPa. With stronger winds aloft, have gusts up to 25-30 knots out of the southwest as we mix out the inversion later in the afternoon. Forecast highs will be in the upper 60`s and low 70`s today, and could reach a bit higher if we manage to breakout of some of the cloud cover. It doesn`t look like we`ll come close to breaking any daily records at FWA today...with 86 (1910), 80 (1939), 74 (2000), and 73 (1987) holding the records for highest temp at FWA on 3/24. At SBN we would be close to tying the third place daily high temp record, with 82 (1907), 75 (2003/1910), and 73 (2000/1928)holding the top spots right now. Rain moves in shortly after sunset in the western half of the CWA, then gradually spreads eastward overnight as forcing associated with the low to our west moves into the region. Wouldn`t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder either, with 100-300 J/Kg of MUCAPE overspreading the region. Expect some areas of fog to develop over Lake Michigan, with perhaps a few dense spots given the stronger WAA/Moisture Advection in the low levels and a deepening inversion overnight. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Above to near normal temps continue, with chances for rain in the long term The occluding low pressure system...over western MO by 12Z Saturday...will continue to lift northeastward into Lake Huron and weaken through Monday. As they say, upper level low look out below. I have rain expected or likely for the CWA Sat-Sun, with chances for a few thunderstorms as well (non-severe). During this period we receive abundant moisture from that return flow mentioned in the short term-with PWATS expected to be upwards of 150% of normal, especially in the NW CWA. In the NW we have stronger forcing as well, with a coupled jet structure associated with the low to our west and another branch to the north over Lake Superior/Upper Michigan. As a result, I have higher POPS/QPF in this region. In the wake of the low Monday AM, models have a ridge building aloft as a secondary low pressure trough (or center, depending on the model) moves into MO. Have likely POPS Monday afternoon as this models are in agreement as far as bringing this area of low pressure through our CWA (though they differ slightly in terms of strength and exact placement). We get a break in precipitation for most of Tuesday into Wednesday night before the next chances move in Thursday and Friday. Temperatures throughout the period will be in the 50`s and low 60`s, which is above normal for most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 638 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Tight s-sw gradient between strong high off east coast and deep low over the srn plains will result in strong wind fields over nrn IN today. Sfc based inversion will promote LLWS early in the fcst but diurnal heating/mixing should allow sfc gusts of 25-30kt by late morning continuing until this eve. Otrws, vfr conditions should cont through the morning with southerly flow advecting mvfr cigs into the area by early evening. Combination of backdoor cdfnt dropping into far nrn IN late tonight and closed low lifting slowly ne from the srn plains should cause shra to spread into SBN area late in the period, prbly holding off at FWA until after daybreak. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

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