Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 240229 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 929 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 927 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will persist into tonight and early Tuesday morning, but coverage of the rain should gradually diminish overnight. Tuesday will feature mostly dry and cloudy conditions with highs generally in the low to mid 40s. Low pressure will move into the region Wednesday bringing chances for rain showers and mild temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. A pattern more typical for late January will set up for the second half of the week into next weekend with several chances for lake enhanced snow showers.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued at 923 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 The combination of inverted low level trough and persistent mid level deformation axis has allowed an area of rain to remain anchored along and east of Interstate 69 this evening, with precip more in the form of drizzle across north central Indiana/southwest lower Michigan. Inverted trough and narrow enhanced low level moisture axis will finally be shifting east during the overnight hours which should cause steady decline in rain coverage/intensity overnight which is covered well with previous forecasts necessitating only minor tweaks to account for current trends. Influx of slightly drier low level air west of the inverted trough should limit any dense fog concerns tonight, with any possibility of localized dense fog limited to far east/northeast locations into early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Light rain/drizzle will continue to impact ne IN/sc Lower MI/nw OH into tonight given lingering moist boundary layer under mid level deformation axis/inverted trough. These moist conditions will also continue to support areas of fog, though expect just enough of a gradient and weak dry advection into western portions of the forecast area to preclude widespread dense fog formation. Shortwave ridging overspreads in between systems on Tuesday. Quiet/dry wx should result outside of low chances for some lingering drizzle near exiting inverted trough in the morning. Some guidance suggest a few breaks in cloud cover possible but would not be surprised to see low clouds hang in through the day under subsidence inversion. Temperatures will remain on the mild side otherwise with lows in the 30s tonight and highs into the low-mid 40s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 A more progressive/positively tilted upper trough will send low pressure ene into central MI by Wednesday. Brief shot of theta-e adv in system warm sector may generate rain showers later Tuesday night into Wednesday locally, with a gradual changeover to snow showers Wednesday night as deformation/trough axis pivots through and colder air wraps in. A colder (more typical for late January) and at times unsettled northwest flow pattern will take shape for the remainder of the long term. This perturbed/cyclonic flow regime over relatively warmer Lake MI waters will allow for several opportunities for snow showers through the period, especially in favored wnw flow snow belts where some accumulation will be possible late in the week and weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 654 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 The lingering low level inverted trough axis and mid level deformation axis will shift east of the area tonight which will result in gradual decrease of light rain across northeast Indiana. Some low probs at KSBN for some light rain but bulk of rain chances over the next several hours are expected to continue to affect KFWA. Conditions may fluctuate between LIFR/IFR through the evening hours, but should tend to favor IFR/MVFR late overnight/early Tuesday as slightly drier air begins to get ingested across the southern Great Lakes. Persistence of inversion, trapped near low level moisture, and overall weak low level flow should allow low clouds to linger through the day Tuesday and have indicated gradual MVFR improvement through the afternoon hours. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

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