Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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901 FXUS63 KIWX 270937 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 437 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of systems will impact the region starting late tonight. Each one will bring increasing moisture and rain chances. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It will remain mild through midweek. Highs today will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s and into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. Colder air will arrive by later Wednesday into Thursday with chances for snow showers lingering through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Weak disturbance passing through with little more than some increase clouds and locally gusty winds. Conditions should remain dry with clearing skies/diminishing winds tonight. Highs will be several more degrees warmer on Monday with highs in the middle 40s to around 50. Clouds will increase in the SE with an area of light rain passing just outside out area. Kept a mention of some sprinkles at best in the far SE. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Warm front will surge north Monday night into Tuesday and bring at least a chance of showers with it. Differences then begin after this point with track of surface low and resultant thermal/moisture profiles key to rain/storm chances into Wednesday. Models agree on sharp trough digging into the region in response to 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak with some indications of a period of a coupled jet structure. This will cause rapid cyclogenesis somewhere across the Great Lakes with track of surface from anywhere from U.P. of Michigan to across our NW areas. SWODY3 has the area in a marginal risk for severe Tuesday night. While the chance exists, concerned that best moisture may be cut off to the south along the Ohio River where convection may be ongoing (and likely stronger). Have changed little from overall forecast for now, leaving mention of thunder in Tuesday night and adding on Wednesday in the SE. Colder air will stream southeast behind the system and bring snow showers chances back to the area. Exact evolution of lake effect potential still up in the air with fast moving wave dropping SE in the flow to bring a chance for snow to the area. Models still vary on impacts from the system, but should bring at least some enhancement to any lake effect precip that may be ongoing. Chances diminish quickly into the weekend as flow becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1045 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 A few very light rain showers or sprinkles across northeast Illinois will continue to diminish over next few hours as weak fgen forcing associated with northern stream trough passage wanes. Low/mid level moisture advection will continue through Monday morning in advance of next short wave approaching the central Rockies with VFR cigs expected to overspread northeast Indiana overnight into Monday. Precip associated with this wave should remain south of the terminals on Monday with a weaker southerly gradient persisting across the region. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Murphy SHORT TERM...Murphy LONG TERM...Murphy AVIATION...Marsili Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

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