Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 262335 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 635 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S. THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 STRATUS WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE IN SW SECTIONS AND A NARROW AREA OF DRIER AIR WAS WINNING OUT. UPPER LOW OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST REACHING PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURS. CLOUD COVER WILL FILL BACK IN AGAIN THIS EVENING PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND AS NEXT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPS SE AND FORCES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HI RES MODELS SHOW A NICE BAND OF FOCUSED OMEGA AND MSTR WHICH WILL START OVER PORTION OF NE ILLINOIS AND THEN DRIFT EAST INTO NW PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 9 TO 12Z THU WINDOW AND THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH 18Z THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE AND EXPAND INLAND AS FAVORABLE FETCH BETWEEN 290 AND 320 DEGREES SETS THE STAGE FOR LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS US 6 AND FAR EAST AS ROUTE 13/US 131. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE MORNING BUT FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS ABOVE 7000 FT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF 1) LACK OF CO-LOCATION OF DGZ AND BEST LIFT...2)LIMITED MSTR...3) SFC TEMPS IN 30 TO 33 DEGREE RANGE. AS A RESULT...LOCAL ACCUMS OF MAYBE AN INCH OR 2 HAVE BEEN GRIDDED UP WITH FOCUS THURS AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NAM/LOCAL WRF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ON BANDS SETTING UP INTO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT BANDS THAT COULD MOVE WELL INLAND AND DROP INTO PORTIONS OF KOSCIUSKO AND NOBLE COUNTIES. INVERSION HGTS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING BY THIS TIME WHICH WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMS (HOPEFULLY). HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC THURS EVE WITH LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS OF MODELS. LOCAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY THURS EVENING. IDEA OF AN ADVISORY WAS TOSSED AROUND BETWEEN HERE AND KGRR BUT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT EXACT POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF BANDS. REGARDLESS...MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER RAPID CHANGES IN VSBYS THURS INTO THURS EVENING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA SO ALLOW A BIT OF EXTRA TIME AND MONITOR SPEEDS WHEN APPROACHING SNOW BANDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY HEADING TOWARDS FREEZING. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 STILL LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE QUESTIONS AND FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED. LONG TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA SO ALLOWED MID CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM SLOWLY BUT EXPECT READINGS ON SATURDAY TO REACH WELL INTO 40S WITH 50S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN WARM SECTOR. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT COMING INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATION. MODELS NOW HINTING AT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT MAY KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WED. ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER THAN GFS AND ALSO MUCH WEAKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID WEEK SYSTEM. GFS INDICATING A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL POSSIBLE WED INTO THU. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND INITS AND GENERAL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 MVFR CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS EVE SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER NWLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ESE FROM MO AND STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NNE. SHRTWV MOVG ESE ACROSS THE GRTLKS SHOULD CAUSE SCT -SHSN ACROSS NRN INDIANA BY THU WITH LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT RESULTING IN HIGHEST IMPACT AT KSBN WHERE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCRSG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS THU WITH SOME NW GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FISHER SHORT TERM...FISHER LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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