Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 190525 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 125 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS/ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT... THOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRBLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. IN FAR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TODAY AND GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MINS BLO FREEZING. WHILE OUR FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING SEASON WON`T BEGIN TIL MAY 1ST... ADDED FROST TO FCST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW SINCE SOME COMMERCIAL/HOME GROWERS/GARDENERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED OUTDOOR GROWING OPERATIONS. ONLY FCST FROST TO BE PATCHY WHERE MINS <=32F SINCE SOME WIND AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST COVERAGE. DRY AIRMASS WILL CONT TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH H85 THERMAL TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DECENT GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO... GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U50S NE TO THE U60S SW. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD...THE FIRST BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE SECOND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ABOUT THURSDAY. BRIEF WARMUPS WILL PRECEDE THESE SYSTEMS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WHICH MIRRORS THE LATEST ALLBLEND TEMPS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FCST AREA FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CAPE VALUES. GFS/BUFKIT CAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR SPECIFICS...MASSIVE DIURNAL RANGES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS/MAV RISES OF 30 TO 40 REASONABLE. KEPT HIGHS OPTIMISTIC INTO THE 70S SUNDAY GIVEN NEARLY FULL LATE APRIL SUN AND 850/925 MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 14C. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S. FROST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/T SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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