Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 240450 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1250 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Breezy conditions diminish in the early overnight. Expecting a quiet night with some clouds around especially by the lake and lows in the 40`s. Monday will be dry with highs in the 50s and approaching the low 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Main question this evening is if any lake effect rain showers will develop overnight and early Monday. Not much change in previous shift`s expectations with latest guidance suggesting minimal lake induced cape with equilibrium levels 6-7kft. One factor that is looking more favorable is winds fcst to veer nnw creating a long fetch, albeit for a fairly short period. Latest NAM/HRRR/ARW are indicating some light qpf over Berrien County around daybreak while RAP is dry. Given negatives discussed above and lack of upstream development attm, maintained dry fcst. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Compact shortwave will move through the northern Great Lakes into tonight. Rain was covering much of the U.P of Michigan with more widely scattered showers into northern Lower Michigan. Further south, effects of the wave will more limited, mainly in the form of increased clouds overnight, breezy conditions this afternoon and evening and maybe a chance for some light lake effect rain showers after 6z as delta t`s drop to around 13 C with a NW fetch. Several negatives for measurable precip with the lake effect including low inversion heights, lack of deep moisture and limited residence time given NW flow. Will maintain no more than 14 pops for now and defer to eve shift to see if more materializes upstream than current depicted by hi res models. Otherwise forecast will become tranquil as cold front pushes through the area, trimming about 10 degrees off of today highs for expected afternoon temps on Monday. && .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Focus remains on approaching system to move out of the Dakotas towards the region. Best chance for rainfall has been pushed back somewhat with mainly NW areas seeing chances increase Weds afternoon and then across the entire area Weds night. Have expanded slight chance of thunder to all areas Weds night with at least some instability to allow for an embedded storm or 2. Trough lingers into Friday, but deeper moisture should be shunted east with the main energy. This should result in a brief dry period Thursday afternoon into Friday before another wave drops in and brings chances of showers back. Temperatures will stay seasonable in the wake of the mid week trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1250 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 VFR/dry conditions expected through the period. Will likely see a SCT/BKN stratocu deck btw 3-7 kft into northern Indiana later this morning through early afternoon given post-frontal saturation/cooling and shallow lake response in veered nnw flow. Clearing later this afternoon/evening with nnw winds topping out near 10 knots today. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ UPDATE...JT SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...Steinwedel Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.