Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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746 FXUS63 KIWX 302324 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 724 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 OCCASIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY... MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 DEEP MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WITH COGENT I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT LENDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT CWA. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD OR AT LEAST TRANSITION TO LIGHTER/MORE SPOTTY RAINFALL TO THEN ENTER SWRN CWA THIS EVE/LIFTING NEWD AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO SWRN UPR GREAT LAKES AND ISENT UVM DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH BEST AXIS LIFTING NWD THROUGH MI. WHILE CWA REMAINS LARGELY ON COLD SIDE OF FRONTAL OCCLUSION AS YET ANOTHER SLOWLY FILLING MID LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS/FILLS FROM CNTL PLAINS INTO THE SWRN UPR GRTLKS...DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THICK IFR STRATUS DECK TO CAP RADIATIVE EFFECTS AND AT MINIMUM COLD LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW/ESPCLY ACRS SRN CWA. THIS AREA WILL BODE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. STILL SUSPECT DESTABILIZATION QUITE CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINTY FOR TSRA NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. AFFORDED SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DELINEATION WRT TSRA CHANCES...WITH HIEST CHANCES 21-24 UTC SUN OVER SERN QUARTER CWA. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY OPEN/SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LAST SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE TRENDED LESS SHEARED WITH MORE FOCUSED ASCENT DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT BUMPED POPS UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCT-NUM SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG SE SINKING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN SOUTH AS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ARIZONA SHEARS QUICKLY ENE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. WITH THAT SAID THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MID LVL FGEN/PVA RESPONSE TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT OPTED TO RETAIN OPTIMISTIC (MAINLY DRY...10-20 POPS) FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY/COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY. BLOCKY PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST MID-LATE WEEK AS CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS EVENTUALLY EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN US AND SOUTHWEST US...WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN ACROSS HIGH PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS TRANSITION AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. COULD EVEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY ON WESTERN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION. AS FOR TEMPS...TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SLIDES IN PRE-FRONTAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LARGE BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SRN IL/IN SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MO MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL INDIANA. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DIURNAL MIXING SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH IN THE AFTN CAUSING SHRA TO MOVE BACK INTO NRN INDIANA BY EVENING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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