Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000 FXUS63 KIWX 030533 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 133 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA. COLD/STABLE GREAT LAKES WILL FURTHER AID SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU CURRENTLY BEING AIDED BY SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. OBVIOUSLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT DID LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND CUT FORECAST TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY VEER INTO TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES) AND MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES ALLOWING TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 70S. A STRAY SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTIONABLE POPS. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LONG TERM TOPIC IS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH FAST MOVING AND DISJOINTED SHORT WAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE MODELS GENERALLY CAPTURE THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES...BUT THE DISPARITY LIES IN THE RESOLUTION AND PHASING. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW AND STATIONARY...DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE THE PATTERN IS UNSETTLED...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED - ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THAT SHOULD REDUCE INSOLATION/HEATING AND SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE INSTABILITY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH SUNDAY/MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 3/4 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO KFWA AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK FROM THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FISHER/AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...LEWIS AVIATION...FISHER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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