Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH ZONE TO A
STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FARTHER NE
STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO ST.
JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW SLIGHTLY
ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT SBN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMDAR DATA SUPPORTED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ABOUT 4000
WITH CLOUDS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE INVERSION...SO VFR
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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