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000
FXUS63 KIWX 202011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL STILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH SRN SASK/NE MT THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO
ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY MONDAY EVE AND PHASE WITH SRN PLAINS UPR LOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SCT SHOWERS DVLPG MON AFTN. WK INSTABILITY AND
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN... SO A FEW
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NW 1/2 OF CWA.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, DRY LOW LEVELS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FOLLOWING AFTN HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. WARMER START TO THE
DAY MONDAY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE M70S DESPITE INCRSG CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ONGOING FCST/GRIDS REFLECT
THE LATEST HANDLING BY THE GFS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE GFS WITH CORRESPONDING MODEL
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE GENERATING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THE GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WELL. REJECTED ALLBLEND TEMPS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE ALLBLEND WAS FINALLY CATCHING UP TO THE GFS AFTER BEING
APPARENTLY TOO WARM EARLIER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CAN NOT
BUY ALLBLEND RAIN CHANCES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...ONE OF
THE FEW SUPPORTING WET RUNS HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO KEPT THIS WEEKEND DRY. THE GFS ADVERTISES A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF
CANADA. STILL ON BOARD WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL
GRDLY INCREASE ACROSS NRN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS SHRTWVS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS MOVE EAST. EXPECT MAINLY BKN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CU MONDAY. SCT SHRA EXPECTED MON
AFTN AS WK INSTABILITY DVLPS AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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