Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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431
FXUS63 KIWX 292346
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
746 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring quiet weather to
the area tonight and Thursday. Temperatures will continue to
moderate for Thursday, with highs expected around 80 for most
locations. For Thursday night, a cold front will drop across the
region bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the overnight hours into early Friday morning.
Breezy and cooler conditions are then in store for Friday behind
the front, with highs expected to range from around 70 near the
Lake Michigan shoreline, to the upper 70s across most of northwest
Ohio.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A weak upper level short wave will be slowly progressing across
the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley tonight with mainly just some
passing high level clouds. High clouds may be just a slight
hinderance to optimal radiational cooling, but should be scattered
enough for another night of fairly sharp evening temp drops given
dry air mass and light/calm winds. Not much change made to
previously forecasted mins in the 50s, with perhaps just some
slight downward adjustment in a few spots based on trending LAMP
guidance. Evening update to be sent shortly, mainly just to
refresh late afternoon wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Water vapor imagery depicting upper trof over the NE US with
ridge over the mountain west...leaving our area in a cool dry NW
flow. Pleasant weather will continue through Thursday as surface
high pressure remains over the region. Dry airmass has dewpoints
45-50 across the area which will support overnight lows around 50.
Return flow on backside of the high will see temps moderate on
Thursday with highs near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Upper low dropping south out of the Hudson Bay into northern Ontario
will have trof axis and short wave energy rotating through the great
lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Surface frontal
boundary hung up along the SE US will block deep moisture return
from the gulf as associated cold front move through the area.
Nocturnal timing will limit instability with CAPE`s generally less
than 500J/kg...and with limited moisture in a weakly forced
environment believe chance pops still in order with this system.
High pressure then builds back into the region and will provide a
great start to the holiday weekend. Short wave energy ejecting out
of the four corners on Saturday could be problematic for the latter
part of the holiday weekend. 12Z runs of the GFS and GEM are both
trending further north with associated surface wave and convective
complex that is expected to form in the mid Mississippi valley
Sunday night and track eastward along Theta-E ridge while the 00Z
run of the ECMWF still has a more suppressed soln tracking through
central Indiana. This further north trend is also reflected in the
blend and now has pops extending up through our entire CWA by
Monday. Frontal boundary remains just to our south through the end
of the forecast period keeping a slight chance over much of the area
through Wednesday. Temperatures expected to remain rather
comfortable through the weekend with upper 70s to around 80...then
warmer and more humid toward the end of the period with mid-upper
80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Low level anticyclone will continue to provide quiet aviation
weather and VFR conditions through this forecast cycle. A weak
moisture starved upper level short wave should bring mainly just
some cirrus across northern Indiana tonight. Winds will become
light and variable or calm under the influence of high pressure,
with lingering effects of lake breeze this afternoon at KSBN
quickly diminishing by around 01Z. A more substantial upper trough
and associated cold front will bring in the next chance of
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday night, but well
after this forecast valid period toward 06Z Thursday night.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Logsdon
LONG TERM...Logsdon
AVIATION...Marsili


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