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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190540
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 805 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Dry conditions will continue this evening but chances for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase later
tonight into Saturday morning. Lows tonight will drop into the
60s, with highs on Saturday near 80 degrees. High pressure then
builds in later Saturday through Monday with dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures. Monday night through Tuesday evening will
feature the next chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold
front moves through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Convection has developed this evening across west central Illinois
downstream of a fairly strong upper level vort max moving into
central Iowa. Subtle backing of low level flow in advance of this
feature will allow a weak low level theta-e ridge to push into
northern Indiana providing some weak elevated instability.
Previous forecasted PoPs focusing on the 05Z-12Z time period from
west to east still appear to be on track given this setup, with
weak nature of elevated instability keeping thunder more isolated.
Other than some minor tweaks to current sky cover trends, no
appreciable forecast changes are anticipated at this time for the
first period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A shortwave over the Upper Midwest will sharpen southeast into
leftover longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region later
tonight into early Saturday. Backing low-mid level flow with this
seasonably strong wave will tighten the downstream moisture/thermal
gradient over nrn IN/nw OH with a 3-6 hour window for rain...best
chances 5-11z across nrn IN/Lower MI and nw OH 8-14z. Elevated
instability into the developing frontal slope may support a few
thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. The overall moisture
quality does appear to be somewhat lacking with this system
despite good deep layer dynamics. This may keep precipitation more
showery.

Subsident northwest flow in wake of the upper wave will allow for
quick drying and clearing from west to east by later Saturday
morning and afternoon. This clearing should allow afternoon highs to
recover to near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The synoptic pattern will briefly transition to a more zonal flow
configuration Sunday into Monday. This will promote mainly dry and
warmer conditions with weak low level ridging dominating during this
time.

Upper level longwave trough amplification into the Eastern US mid-
late week then brings a strong cold through around Tuesday/Tuesday
night, followed by cooler/dry wx Wednesday through Friday. A
couple rounds of showers/storms may accompany the frontal passage
Monday night through Tuesday night with severe weather not out of
the question Tuesday aftn/eve given ample pre-frontal moisture
return under increasing wsw flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Coverage of showers/isolated thunder has been trying to expand
somewhat over past hour or so, but still amounting to no more than
scattered in nature. Current trends suggest precip will remain
just to the south of KSBN, but close enough to hold onto VCSH for
a few hours. Tougher call at KFWA given potential for activity to
die out before reaching there. Opted to remove tempo group
overnight and stick with VCSH. If coverage expands further, then
will amend as needed.

Once this activity departs (after 09-11Z at KSBN and 11-13Z KFWA)
not much going on the remainder of the period with VFR conditions.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher


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