Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260931
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
531 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 60S TODAY. WARMER YET ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY...LEAVING TEMPS AS THE MAIN FOCUS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS A BIT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO SHALLOW WITH MIXING DEPTHS (900 MB) GIVEN
FULL SUN AND MOIST INITIALIZATION OF SFC DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT
CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE PREV FCST. THIS DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS UNDER PASSING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET INTO THE 40S THIS EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS WAA COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT PUSH OF ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THE NOSE OF A MID MS VALLEY
30-40 KT LLJ...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO QUESTION TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW GIVEN PROGGED HIGH
CPD`S/WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS...WITH MORE
FOCUSED MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP WNW OF THE FA ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

STG SW TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PACNW WILL OVERTOP WRN RIDGE TDA
AND AMPLIFY EWD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX INDUCING
CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW PATTN ALOFT.
AND AGAIN TONIGHT...MULTIDAY TRENDS CONT FASTER ALOFT W/EWD
PROGRESSING SYS. IN LIGHT OF GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE
ADDNL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON AFTN-TUE AFTN WHILE SCRAPPING
TUE NIGHT MENTION ALTOGETHER.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD OF JAMES BAY LT PD. DISPARATE SOLUTIONS ALOFT CONT HWVR EWD
AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH THROUGH THE ERN LAKES MOST LIKELY AND AS
SUCH PRECIP CHCS LOOK DISMAL OUTSIDE THU NIGHT IN ASSOCN/W SFC FNTL
PASSAGE. IN THE LEAST PRONOUNCED BLOW OF CAA LIKELY FRI WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN. DRY WX AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS XPCD
THEREAFTER AS NEW ENGLAND CNTRD NEG HGT ANOMALY ERODES AND MID LVL
HGTS BLD BACK THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY DYS8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE/LOWER (YET REMAIN VFR) LATER TONIGHT AS WAA
COMMENCES IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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