430
FXUS63 KIWX 151032
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
632 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers diminishing today then a short dry period tonight.

- More showers with scattered storms at times Thursday through
  the middle of next week. Locally downpours possible, but
  severe storms are not expected through Saturday.

- Better chances for severe storms next week Monday through
  Wednesday.

- Highs in the 70s to low 80s into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A cluster of smaller systems were associated with the upper low
that was drifting east over the Ohio River. Part of the energy
with this system was over the forecast area and had produced
locally heavy rainfall over 2" yesterday into last night. SPC
mesoanalysis showed precipitable water values values ranged from
1.25 to 1.35 inches which were close to the 95th percentile for
this time of year. Saturation was near 100% per HRRR and GFS
BUFKIT sounding up to 250 mb. The atmosphere will remain very
efficient in producing rain, although the upper level system
will continue to accelerate east in reaction to teleconnections
energy upstream. The next upper level system will reach the area
Thursday and is expected to produce local downpours into early
Saturday will basically have same environment as today. An EML
(Elevated Mixed Layer) should arrive Sunday ahead another system
in the series of upper level trofs as the main/longwave trof
lingers over western North America. While is is still quite a
ways out, initial thoughts include an environment that may be
favorable for severe storms next week Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A relatively low confidence forecast today regarding more
precise timing of improving trends at terminals. A couple of
smaller scale vort centers rotating through broad Ohio Valley
upper level circulation will continue to promote unsettled
weather in terms of rain showers this morning, but focus for
these rain showers will continue to shift south of the
terminals. Best near term coverage of rain showers should remain
confined to far northwest/west central Indiana where an axis of
stronger 925-850 mb moisture convergence persists through mid
morning. Northeast flow and fairly strong morning inversion may
allow IFR/lower end MVFR cigs to persist a bit longer than
previously forecasted, with longest duration cigs below 2k feet
anticipated at KFWA. Diurnal mixing and departure of negative
upper height anomaly should allow for transition to VFR
conditions from northwest to southeast this afternoon/early
evening. Clearing skies tonight and weakening winds could yield
some patchy fog potential tonight, particularly across KFWA.
Confidence remains relatively low in this scenario however, and
will hold with VFR conditions at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili