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000
FXUS63 KIWX 052117
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
417 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EVENING.
EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGELINE
SETTLES THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INTO LWR OH VLY BY DAYBREAK.
RAMPED SRLY SFC FLOW ASSOCD WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN HUDSON BAY
LATE FRI AFTN. ELEVATED ERLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO LIKELY AFFORD
MIXOUT OF GUSTS INTO LWR/MID 20KTS IN ERLY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


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