495
FXUS64 KJAN 160243 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Satellite imagery showed a few high clouds that will continue to
stream across the region tonight. These high clouds will not
affect the patchy fog that will be possible close to sun rise in
the southeast. No changes were needed to the on going forecast.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will continue in the near term as shortwave ridging
builds aloft. We transition to a warm advection regime tomorrow
ahead of our next system and will see clouds build in from the west
throughout the day. By late afternoon a few showers and storms may
move into the far southwestern parts of our area as storms begin to
spread further east from west Louisiana./SAS/

Thursday-Friday....

A strengthening southern jet and positively tilted trough axis
shifting across the Southern Plains will send multiple rounds of
shortwaves and associated cold front across the area. The will
provide a good storm environment ahead of impending showers and
storms; favorable low-level moisture, increasing instability and
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Thursday evening the chances for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
steadily from west to east through Friday evening. With better
model agreement the main conscience is Thursday evening-Friday
evening will be the time frame for possible severe weather with
Friday having the best potential for severe. The primary risk will
be the heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding
extending through the weekend as rainfall totals could reach 3-5
inches from Thursday- Saturday morning with locally higher
amounts.Thus a flash flood watch has been issued from 6Z Friday-6Z
Saturday. A marginal risk for Thursday night and a slight risk
for Friday for the aforementioned severe storms has been added to
the HWO for Thursday evening through Friday evening.

Saturday: The chances for showers and storms will diminish from west
to east throughout the course of the day as a cold front passes
through the area. By Saturday evening, the upper-level trough axis
clears eastward as temperatures will trend on the warmer and dryer
side behind the front.

Sunday-Tuesday: By Sunday axis will build over the area, gradually
intensifying through the end of the period. Expect high temperatures
to steadily climb into the low 90s to end the period./KVP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

With the exception of a brief period 11-13Z where MVFR vsbys wl be
psbl in the se, VFR conditions and a light wind wl prevail through
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  87  65  83 /   0   0  80  80
Meridian      60  89  64  85 /   0   0  60  90
Vicksburg     63  88  65  83 /   0  10  90  70
Hattiesburg   63  90  67  86 /   0   0  60  80
Natchez       63  88  65  84 /   0  10  90  70
Greenville    65  88  67  81 /   0  10  70  70
Greenwood     63  88  66  81 /   0  10  60  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night
     for MSZ047>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night
     for LAZ015-016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/KP/22