Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 280232
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
932 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...The CWA remains situated on the western edge of a 594dam
ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva with a southern stream
upper-level low and trough over the Desert SW. Another upper-level
low is also located off the TX/LA coast. Convection was hard to come
by this afternoon as drier air, characteristic of 1.25 inches in the
east and 1.75 inches in the west, was advected into the CWA with the
easterly flow around the ridge. Very moist tropical air to our SW
associated with the upper low just off the TX/LA coast resulted in a
tight moisture gradient across our far SW counties/parishes and
helped keep the best precip coverage confined to this area. As of 2z,
a few lingering showers were still located across the far SW, but
this activity should dissipate within the next few hours. Lowered
overnight temps a few degrees area wide in line with latest
guidance/persistence. Kept the coolest overnight lows in the east
where lower dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and clear skies will help
maximize radiational cooling. Otherwise, added patchy fog across the
SW and portions of the NW/Delta where it has been more prevalent over
the last few days. /TW/


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR vsbys will develop after 06Z and mainly in the southeast and
west. Conditions wl improve by 13Z and VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through Sunday evening. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

For the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening, there will
continue to be a strong moisture gradient over the forecast area
with shower/thunderstorm chances mostly confined to south of the
Highway 84 corridor. Otherwise, expect quiet weather overnight with a
few patchy areas of fog.

Going from Sunday through Monday, the ArkLaMiss will remain between
a strong subtropical high centered to the northeast and a relatively
weaker trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The southeast flow
between these features will maintain the strong moisture gradient
from southwest to northeast over the area, and this is reflected in
our rain chance forecasts. Given plenty of sun the next couple of
days, we will see afternoon temperatures a few degrees above climatic
normal, but afternoon surface dewpoints will continue to mix down
into the mid/upper 60s at many locations, and this will keep heat
stress from getting overly excessive.

Concerning tropics, Invest 99L remains weak and there is much
uncertainty regarding future development over the next couple of days
as it approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, let alone the prospects
for any potential impacts to the ArkLaMiss later in the week. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center outlooks for this disturbance.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  94  73  94 /   1  10   8  16
Meridian      70  93  73  93 /   1  10   8  14
Vicksburg     72  94  73  95 /   4  21  14  16
Hattiesburg   73  92  73  92 /   1  33  12  26
Natchez       73  90  73  89 /  19  38  15  30
Greenville    71  95  73  94 /   1  10   6  17
Greenwood     71  94  74  94 /   1  10   5  21

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


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