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000
FXUS64 KJAN 200912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE
NOSING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND A LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WAS
MAINTAINING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THAT WAS HELPING TO SPREAD A
LAYER OF STRATUS NORTHWARD AGAIN THIS EARLY MORNING AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRATUS DECK. THUS...WL
START OFF WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS MORNING AND TOP OUT WARMER THAN
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS OUR CWA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TODAY AND THE EXPECTED INSOLATION SHOULD HELP TEMPS TOP
OUT NEAR 90 AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

COME TUESDAY MORNING A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORCING NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOWER 70 DEGREE
DEW POINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AROUND 2500J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 30KTS BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM...LI OF
-10 AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS NW OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HWO.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PWATS
FALL WELL BE LOW AN INCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER RH`S ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
80S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WERE BEING REPORTED AT 08Z AND
A BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR CATEGORY IS POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SE-S WINDS 10-14KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY 17Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  68  89  68 /   2   5  25  30
MERIDIAN      90  65  90  65 /   2   3  17  14
VICKSBURG     90  71  88  69 /   3   9  30  40
HATTIESBURG   90  68  91  66 /   3   3  11  10
NATCHEZ       88  70  88  69 /   5   5  16  29
GREENVILLE    89  71  88  70 /   3  14  41  60
GREENWOOD     90  69  89  69 /   3  12  33  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15/22