Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KJAN 250929
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM W/SW TO NW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT NRN/ERN TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS POSSIBLE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.