Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 170900
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES TODAY AGAIN
LOOK CONFINED TO LOCALES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 84 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
AGAIN A SLIGHTLY AIRMASS WILL NOW RESIDE.  EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER
90S SOUTH.  MEANWHILE LOWS TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE...WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SPARK SOME CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE MORE SOUTH TRACKING DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH THE STILL STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THAT AREA.  HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT MOST SITES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG...VISIBILITIES
AT A COUPLE OF SITES ARE BEING REDUCED TO MVFR STATUS.  THIS PATCHY
FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM LATER TONIGHT. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  68  91  65 /   6   4  10   3
MERIDIAN      91  64  91  63 /   6   4   5   4
VICKSBURG     91  66  91  65 /   7   5  15   2
HATTIESBURG   93  70  92  67 /  12   9  15  14
NATCHEZ       90  69  88  66 /  13  15  27  12
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  67 /   1   7  20   2
GREENWOOD     88  65  89  65 /   2   6  13   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/CME




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