Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 020150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS CONVECTION FROM EARLIER SURGE OF MOISTURE
MOVING TO THE N HAS WINDED DOWN. PWATS HAVE CLIMBED TO ~2.1-2.2
INCHES IN REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/BLENDED SATELLITE TOTALS AND SOME OF
THESE HIGHER CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LEFT ONLY WORDING
OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR SW BUT ENDING BY 02Z. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
LINGER IN THE AREA BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN THE S/SW AS THE RUC/HRRR
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL COULD
HAVE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE S/SE NEAR
MCB/HBG...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
WX GRIDS DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HRRR DOES INDICATES SOME LOW
STRATUS MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUDS. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR FLIGHT CATS IS HIGHEST AT PIB/HBG AREA OF THE
PINE BELT. FLIGHT CATS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
TOMORROW...AS IS TYPICAL...WITH MORE MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATER TUESDAY. /BB/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CWA BUT THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS TWO INCH
PWS SURGING BACK NORTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.
THIS INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE WAS COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S TO DEVELOP A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH ISOLATED COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST SITES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE OUR CWA FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY TUESDAY PWS WILL BE BACK AT OR
ABOVE TWO INCHES AREAWIDE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MORNING
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP RAPIDLY. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE
OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL...PARAMETERS DO NOT
LOOK THAT FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS.
/22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD IN THAT PATTERN OVER THE LOWER CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
FLAT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS
LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTH MS...FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN EASTERLY AND AFFECTED BY ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS WELL SERVING TO KEEP
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL WITH PW/S REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES.

HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO BENEFIT MOST FROM THE WARMING FROM
THE RIDGE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL (NEAR -10C AT
H5) ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S. BELIEVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH...BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT EACH DAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIP INTO NORTHERN MS ON SUNDAY
SERVING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH BY THAT
TIME./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  94  73  95 /  12  39  23  31
MERIDIAN      73  94  71  95 /   9  28  24  29
VICKSBURG     74  94  72  94 /  12  43  20  30
HATTIESBURG   74  95  75  96 /  12  33  24  33
NATCHEZ       74  92  74  93 /  13  44  22  30
GREENVILLE    75  93  73  95 /   9  41  19  30
GREENWOOD     74  94  73  95 /   7  41  24  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/EC/22/26




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