Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 132051
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN TODAY`S FORECAST PACKAGE
IS A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. BUT FOR NOW, IT IS A
BEAUTIFUL...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT CHILLY...DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LAND OF LINCOLN MAINTAINS COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW. FORTUNATELY, THE POLAR JET REMAINS POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, SPARING US FROM THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT IS IMPACTING MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE CREATED SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS (EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS NOTED IN NORTH AND EAST MS), THIS HAS DROPPED RH`S TO AS LOW
AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN SPITE OF THE COOL AIR IN PLACE.
THIS ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CREATED SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO A LIMITED FIRE WX RISK WAS ADDED TO THE
HWO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW
SMOKE PLUMES HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED ON RADAR IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.

THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT, BUT A NEW TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO CARVE OUT OVER THE PLAINS STATES TOMORROW. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK
AROUND TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ABOUT
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN. BY AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AS
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING RELATED TO THE UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS WILL INSTIGATE MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY. GIVEN LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER, FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. EVEN NORTH OF THE FRONT, ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ADDED TO
THE HWO FOR GENERALLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY,
CAUSING A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT TO CLIP THE AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED,
SO PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY EVEN IN THE NE PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY NOTABLE RESULT OF
THE FRONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IS LOOKING NICE AS UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO
THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO
5KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15KTS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  63  52  65 /   0   5  42  81
MERIDIAN      25  59  48  64 /   0   3  42  84
VICKSBURG     33  64  54  65 /   0   8  46  82
HATTIESBURG   30  65  52  69 /   0   3  34  78
NATCHEZ       35  65  56  67 /   0   9  41  77
GREENVILLE    34  57  51  55 /   0  15  64  85
GREENWOOD     30  57  51  56 /   0  10  59  86

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/28


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