Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 230900
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILTER INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY.  SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING..WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST DAYS AS THEY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE 40S.  THEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WHILE LOWS AGAIN FALL
INTO THE 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. DRY NW FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILIBILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      73  41  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     71  40  76  45 /   2   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   74  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       71  44  76  48 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    68  45  75  49 /   5   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     68  42  74  49 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





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