Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 201157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
557 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion


12Z TAF discussion:

The primary concern early this morning will be for LIFR category
fog/stratus in the HBG area. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to
prevail until a frontal system approaches tonight. MVFR category
ceilings/visibilies will be the main concern with aviation
conditions deteriorating as SHRA slowly moves in from west to
east across the forecast area. Dense fog could reform late
tonight into early Tuesday morning in the HBG area before the rain
moves in there. /EC/



Today through tonight,

Areas of dense fog are advecting into the Pine Belt region early
this morning in southeast flow and have issued a dense fog advisory
accordingly. Latest trends suggest the northward extent of the fog
will be limited and have confined the advisory to locations
along/south of the Highway 84 corridor. After the fog
lifts/dissipates later this morning, expect another dry and
unseasonably warm day across the ArkLaMiss with high temperatures
potentially breaking records again in some locations.

Forecast thinking generally remains unchanged regarding the
approaching shortwave trough. The southern end of the trough is
expected to cut off from the primary westerlies and form a closed
low that will slowly move across the region early this week. While a
few showers could moving into western portions of the forecast area
late this afternoon, the greater rain threat should hold off until
tonight as the preceding ridge will tend to delay the onset of
showers. As has been discussed in previous days, anomalous
moisture and slow system movement could support some locally heavy
rainfall beginning late tonight, but low instability should limit
convective rainfall and the potential for much heavier rainfall
rates that could lead to flash flooding. /EC/

Tuesday through Sunday night:

A warm pattern will be the general rule for the remainder of the
work week. This will be followed by a cooler pattern for the weekend
as temps dip toward normal levels. Our best chance of rain will
continue Tuesday into Tuesday night followed by some more rain
chances for Friday then on Sunday night.

Widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will be
occurring Tuesday. The combination of the slow-moving system and
very moist air will continue to promote the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, but the lack of instability and deep convection
will tend to keep rainfall amounts from getting too heavy. WPC has
average rainfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches across the
region. Will continue to monitor the southwest portion of the
forecast area for any flooding potential and hold off on including
any such threat in the HWO/graphics. The upper closed low will
push southward into the gulf which will end the heavy rain
potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday as better ascent shifts
into the gulf. The models and their ensembles were generally
similar with the southward track of the upper closed low.

Shortwave ridging will bring a return to dry weather during the
middle of the week. The next less amplified shortwave trough is
expected to approach Friday. There will not be much return moisture
as pwats will only be around one inch. The airmass will be
supportive on some isolated convection as a cold front pushes across
the region on Friday night. Dry weather will come back to the region
on Saturday through Sunday in the wake of the front with cooler more
seasonable temperatures. Another shortwave will approach the region
on Sunday which will give the ArkLaMiss a chance of rain across the
west on Sunday night./17/


Jackson       81  59  70  57 /   3  77  82  42
Meridian      82  57  69  57 /   1  42  89  46
Vicksburg     81  60  71  57 /   9  82  77  32
Hattiesburg   82  59  71  58 /   3  57  88  43
Natchez       79  61  71  58 /  21  86  76  36
Greenville    78  58  70  55 /   8  73  65  26
Greenwood     81  58  70  56 /   4  72  83  34


MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ061>066-



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