Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 211043 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
543 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the day. VCTS will begin
developing after 21/15Z at MEI and HBG, and after 21/18Z at JAN
and HKS which could briefly lower ceilings and visibilities if
impacted. The convection will end during the evening followed by
MVFR visibilities in fog developing after midnight./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Mid/upper level high center will become situated
over the Mid-South region this morning and continue to provide
another hot day for much of the area. Some reprieve from the heat
does look possible today as a mid level cold core low over FL slowly
tries to move in underneath ridge axis. Already, a slug of high PW
(1.75 to 2 inches) air has been rotating into the area from AL. With
the expected heat and deeper moisture, fatter CAPEs should result in
better convective potential over the east central and south mainly
this afternoon and evening. Over the north and west, better
influence from the ridge will suppress most convection and give
another hot and humid afternoon. Mid to upper 90s heat with mid 70s
dewpoints will lead to heat indices in the 106-110 range once again
this afternoon. Have expanded the heat advisory to the
northeast./26/

Saturday through Thursday: The upper ridge will continue to weaken
across the area on Saturday, and this combined with PWATS ranging
from 1.8 to 2.0 inches and afternoon heating, will allow for
another round of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be a little
cooler across most of the area with highs around 90.

A weak mid level low will rotate around the subtropical ridge on
Sunday and move up over the area Sunday night into Monday. A surge
of moisture will accompany this low with PWATS around 2.0 inches
moving up over the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop once again Sunday afternoon. Little will change on Monday
with abundant moisture continuing over the area. The GFS suggests
a weak frontal boundary dropping down into the area Monday into
Tuesday with the EC and Canadian a little slower with this
feature. Either way it looks like a daily dose of scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across the area. With
abundant moisture and insulation from cloud cover, expect
temperatures to continue in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  75  90  74 /  35  23  38  14
Meridian      93  74  91  74 /  40  23  36  14
Vicksburg     95  75  90  74 /  24  20  39  12
Hattiesburg   93  73  90  72 /  46  34  41  18
Natchez       93  74  90  72 /  32  30  42  18
Greenville    97  76  91  75 /  22  13  29   6
Greenwood     95  76  91  75 /  23  16  34  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>042-047.

LA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$



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