Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 251927
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE BROAD MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO WARM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS WILL CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY NEAR LOW LYING
AREAS AND WATER SOURCES...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRENT PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON MONDAY
TO AROUND ONE INCH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE INCREASE WITH PWATS. WITH THIS QUIET PATTERN LOOKING AT A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS WITH THE MEAN RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS
50S AND SOME 60S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR INCLUDE
HIGHS IN MID 70S WITH LOWS NEAR 50.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN CUT MAV GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR MONDAY
FOR GMOS GUIDANCE. /17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LONGTERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW
AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID
LEVEL SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.

MAJORITY OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT DOES LOOK AS
THOUGH IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THEY DIFFER FROM HERE FORWARD. ECMWF WANTS TO RAPIDLY MOVE THE
PRECIP OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT SEEMINGLY COMES
FROM NOWHERE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION
ALONG WASHING OUT BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY. THE ECWMF DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS WE
PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LARGE
SYSTEM DIGS OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
GIVING THE AREA A RETURN OF COOL/DRY AIR./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY AREAS
OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   5
MERIDIAN      49  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   5
VICKSBURG     48  88  53  87 /   0   0   0   5
HATTIESBURG   50  88  55  86 /   0   0   0   5
NATCHEZ       50  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   5
GREENVILLE    55  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   5
GREENWOOD     53  88  58  86 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/EC/26













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