Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172040 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 340 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MORE EFFECTIVELY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO FAR TODAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE IS MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT. DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE CLOSED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A RATHER DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND THAT NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BRIEF TIME OF CLEARING THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND PUT A CAP ON THE COOLING...LIMITING FURTHER TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRYING TAKING PLACE ATTM. ACCORDINGLY... HAVE UNDERCUT QPF AND POPS FROM THE NAM/MET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN THREAT WILL DAMPEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND FADE OUT BY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN THREAT TO JUST FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A BIT UNDER THE MET NUMBERS AND CLOSER TO THE DRIER MAV ONES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH AT LEAST TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT US THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STORM OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS BY A LITTLE MORE SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS JUST NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY OCCUR AT ALL. A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP IN THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MID WEEK. THIS CAUSES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER US OR VERY CLOSE TO US ON ITS WAY NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER WE WILL BE DEALING WITH...BUT RAIN...WIND AND SNOW ARE ALL ON THE TABLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 DRIER AIR IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS WILL BRING THE LIGHT PCPN TO END...BUT BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE SHOULD BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOW SUCCESSFULLY IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO ANY REAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY KSME AND KLOZ. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR THE PCPN TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY BE OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS DEPARTING THE AREA TAKING ITS STRONG WESTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GREIF

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