Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 112326 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 726 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MADE A SLIGHT UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM OUR NE. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH FOG MAINLY CONFINED TO RIVER AND STREAM VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSW ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL STILL NOT BE AS HUMID AS IT COULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 AFTER A PERIOD OF GOOD AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED SOLUTIONS...THE 12Z GFS HAS TAKEN A SUDDEN TURN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS INTO THE EXTENDED. THIS CLOUDS UP MUCH OF THE DETAILS SURROUNDING THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE TIMING OR PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FROM A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT THAT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. OVERALL TRENDS ARE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS... WITH PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FALLING BACK FROM MOVING FROM EARLY TUESDAY TO LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. AT PRESENT BULK SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE SPEED OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THESE SYSTEMS AND CONTRASTING AIR MASSES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MARGINAL LEVELS OF BULK SHEAR REQUIRED FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS PLACE OUR AREA IN A DY4 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TO START THE EXTENDED...PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE RIPPLE WILL TRANSIT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH...ALLOWING A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS OVER CANADA AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE ENERGY DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A LARGE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS BY TUE/WED. THIS WOULD ENSURE THE INVASION OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO THE HEART OF THE CONUS DURING THE PEAK OF SUMMER HEATING. FROM ALL APPEARANCES...THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TRENDS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THIS MAY ESTABLISH A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WINDOW AND JUST BEYOND AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY TRACKING SYSTEMS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD BE SIMILAR IN EXTENT...DURATION AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITIES TO LAST NIGHT. MOST FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT LOZ...SME AND SJS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.