


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --411 FXUS63 KJKL 151856 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 256 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist for the next week, resulting in sultry conditions. - There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms over the next week, especially in the afternoon/evening hours. && .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, and roughly extends along the I-75 corridor and west. These showers and storms are expected to progress east through the afternoon, as a 500- mb vort maxima is helping in supporting these. These scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms should taper off in coverage and intensity heading into the early evening. Winds will be light and variable at the surface overnight, however winds will remain elevated further aloft. This may mitigate the coverage and intensity of river valley fog development tonight, compared to previous nights. Places within river valleys that do receive rainfall this afternoon may have slightly better chances of fog development overnight than those that don`t. Temperatures tonight will generally remain in the low 70s. Wednesday, a second shortwave passes through the Ohio Valley bringing with it another 500-mb vorticity maxima, advancing through Kentucky. This maxima will help kick-off another round of convection tomorrow, as early as 15Z in some model solutions. Showers will be scattered to numerous with isolated thunderstorms. Any training or slow moving storms do have the potential to produce locally heavy rain rates with PWAT hovering around 2 inches. Heading into the early evening showers and storms will begin to taper off from west to east, although shower activity may linger across the Cumberland Plateau. Daytime temperatures will likely range from the upper 80s to low 90s with night-time lows in the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 440 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025 The period is expected to begin with upper level ridging centered in the Atlantic to the southeast of Bermuda and extending into the Southeast to Arklatex regions. A shortwave trough per the consensus of guidance moving around this ridging is expected to be moving across the Lower OH Valley. A tropical wave/system should be over the eastern Gulf at that point as well while upper level ridging should extend into the southwest Conus at that time. Further north, an upper level low is progged to be centered over the eastern Hudson Bay vicinity with troughing south and southwest into the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley and into portions of the Northern Rockies with multiple shortwaves likely moving through this trough. At the surface, a frontal zone is expected to be north of eastern KY from the mid Atlantic states into the southern to western Great Lakes while another frontal zone ahead of the upper low and troughing from Canada into north central parts of the Conus should extend from the Maritimes/Lower St Lawrence Valley across Quebec tot he Northern Great Lakes to upper MS Valley to Central Plains and then into portions of the western Conus. A sfc ridge of high pressure should extend from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic. Wednesday to Thursday night, upper level ridging is expected to remain from the Atlantic into sections of the Southeast/northern Gulf States tot he Arklatex vicinity while the tropical wave likely moves west or west/northwest over the Gulf or near the Gulf coast. A shortwave trough should track from the Lower to middle OH Valley on Wednesday followed by some height rises over eastern KY and the Southern Appalachians Wed night into early Thursday. Neutral 500 mb height tendencies or slight rises generally follow from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This will occur as the 500 mb trough shifts east across the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes. An additional shortwave may also move east from the western Conus to Central Conus in westerly flow and near the Lower OH Valley late Thursday night. During this timeframe, a ridge of sfc high pressure will extend form the Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians/eastern KY while the tropical wave/potential tropical system may near the Lower MS Valley region. As the shortwave troughs pass by to the north and northwest, the frontal zone initially north and northwest of the OH Valley should gradually drop south and southeast across the Great Lakes and approach the OH River by late Thursday night. Convection will be possible during this time, generally peaking each afternoon and evening. However, with some forcing from passing shortwave troughs and the approach of the front, convection cannot be ruled out at night. Fog, especially in the valleys is anticipated for Wed night and Thu night and pending the degree of clearing and where heavier rain falls each daytime period could end up with greater areal extent or dense in some areas. PW per the 00Z LREF mean is on the order of 1.7 to 1.9 inches with deterministic guidance nearer to 2 inches. Any convection during this period could produce locally heavy rain rates. Friday to Saturday night, upper level ridging per the guidance consensus should continue to extend from parts of the Atlantic into the southeast Conus and perhaps develop over the Southern Plains as well. The possible tropical system and its evolution varies from model run to model run, though moisture form this system should gradually move across sections of the Gulf coast states. Further north, westerly flow aloft should remain from the Rockies to the Central and Northern Plains to Great Lakes/OH Valley to Northeast. Multiple shortwave troughs are progged to move through the westerly flow during that time with guidance having one crossing sections of the OH Valley and eastern KY on Friday and another moving into the Great Lakes/Lower OH Valley later Saturday into Saturday night. The frontal zone north of the OH River early on Friday may tend to sag across the Northeast and mid Atlantic states and middle OH Valley and into northern sections of eastern KY Friday late Friday into Friday night before returning north as low pressure treks from the Central Plains to the Central Great Lakes. This westerly flow aloft from the Rockies to eastern Conus will occur downstream of an upper trough moving from BC into the Northwest Conus. Convection peaking in coverage each afternoon and evening with the threat of locally heavy rain as is typical of mid July is anticipated across eastern KY Friday and Saturday with the potential for some convection at night as well. Sunday to Monday, uncertainty remains with the track and possible remnants or moisture from the possible tropical system over the Southeast Conus to end the weekend and begin next week. Otherwise, generally higher heights and upper ridging should extend from the Atlantic across much of the Southeastern Conus and Southern Plains to Southwest. Shortwave troughs should continue moving east across northern sections of the Conus and southern Canada during this time. One may cross the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley later Sunday to Sunday night and reach the Great Lakes Monday while another shortwave over the Great Lakes early on Sunday tracks to the Northeast Conus Sunday to Sunday night. Associated sfc low pressure in advance of this initial shortwave is expected to pass well north of eastern KY with the trailing frontal zone sagging south of the Great Lakes and approaches the Lower and Middle OH Valley from Sunday to Sunday night though this front will likely remain north of eastern KY through the period and perhaps lift back north as the next system moves near the International border. Convection, peaking in coverage each afternoon and evening is anticipated to begin the new week as well and as in earlier timeframe in the long term period, locally heavy rain will remain a threat.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025 Showers and storms have redeveloped early this afternoon; therefore, opted to have PROB 30s for each of the sites. Showers and storms will dissipate toward sunset and some patchy river valley FG is expected tonight, although perhaps not as widespread as is the case this morning. This is contingent on if TAF sites get rain this afternoon. Modeled winds aloft are much stronger than previous nights so a stratus deck would be more favored rather than FG. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the period. Lastly, showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop Wednesday anytime after 15Z, so some PROB 30s have been reintroduced toward the tail end of the TAF period for JKL, SME, and SYM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GINNICK