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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 171812 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AS TEMPERATURES ARE
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHERE THICKER CLOUDS
ARE HANGING TOUGH. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE NORTH OF
I-64...WHERE A FEW PLACES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO
THESE AREAS TONIGHT...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR LESS OF A DIURNAL DROP
OFF...WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 30S. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS DRIED UP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOW STRATUS LIKELY
HOLDING IN ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY GIVEN THE LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 40S BORDERING TENNESSEE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

CANCELLED THE LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WHILE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY AREAS OF SLEET CONTINUE...ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. DID ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE DRIZZLE
AND SLICK ROADS THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING...ENDING THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION
THREAT. UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. THE WINTRY THREAT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO ENDING...BUT SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY WHILE LETTING EVERYONE ELSE DROP
OUT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE COUNTIES WHERE THE ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER. HOWEVER...WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. THUS...A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE SEEN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE STUBBORN TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW LIKELY WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SKIES SLOWLY TURNING CLEAR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING...THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS DOWNSLOPING
FLOW HELPS TO WIPE OUT THE LAST OF THE CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW 60S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. PUT
SOME SCATTERED RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH RAIN FROM THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE...SO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS. AFTER DAY 7...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. FOR
TEMPERATURES NUDGED THE MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE RAW OPERATION ECMWF
MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY RAISE UP THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS WE COOL OFF.
CEILINGS COULD REACH CLOSE TO LIFR ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF JKL. CEILINGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER OUT TUESDAY
MORNING...AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN