Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242051 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADVECTION OF VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD COOL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULD YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SEVERE WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO ARRIVE. EVEN SO...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES AWAY AND GETS SCOURED OUT. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE AT MIDWEEK...AND PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH...AND PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERATE PRECIP...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY...HAVE OPTED TO USE NOTHING HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS...AND ONLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF FAR EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE VIRGINIAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL END BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A TENDENCY FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG IN TOUGH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...OR REDEVELOP IF THEY BREAK UP FOR A TIME DURING THE EVENING. SO...WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...ABE

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