Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252136 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 436 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2 ECMWF RUNS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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