Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170725 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS. FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY BUILD DOWN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH THE RIDGE TOPS REALLY GETTING SOCKED IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOG MAY BE MORE SPORADIC IN THE VALLEYS AND NOT QUITE AS DENSE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MANY OF THE RIDGETOP AIRPORTS...THIS WILL BRING MANY SPOTS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS LATE TONIGHT. FOG/STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAY TAKE A GOOD 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE THIS PROCESS IS COMPLETE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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