Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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196 FXUS63 KJKL 290556 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 156 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 155 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Quick update to refresh the hourly grids per recent trends. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1038 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 The cold front that dropped across the region is now well south across the TN Valley and Southwest VA this hour based on radar. The lagging line of showers continues to weaken as it propagates slowly to the east. All the short term models would suggest this is going to be the trend and leaned toward the consshort and other short term models for the POP grids. Hourly temps have also been difficult to pin down as the front has caused sharp drop offs. Overall more manual adjustments were required to deal with this. UPDATE Issued at 807 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front has dropped south across eastern KY this hour and resides across the far SE portions of the state. Behind the front a line of showers resides along the lagging mid level front at around the 700mb level. However with loss of daytime heating these showers continue to decrease in intensity. That said the CAM model guidance continues to show this same idea through the late evening hours. After this we will be left with only some more isolated shower activity through the night. Updated grids to reflect the current obs and trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 455 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front was located over the far NW portion of the JKL forecast area at mid afternoon, and was moving SE. Showers were occurring near and behind the front, with thunderstorms further northwest over IN where colder air aloft was located near an upper low center. The front will continue progressing SE tonight, bringing showers with it. However, the showers should be on a decline this evening as instability wanes. Have used categorical POP in our far NE, trimmed down to chance POP late in our SE. Decided not to continue thunder potential tonight, with very little thunder occurring any longer in the band of precip currently moving in, and instability weakening by late tonight as colder air aloft arrives after surface temps have cooled down. However, the cold pool aloft will be centered over KY on Thursday, and daytime heating will lead to instability and a potential for thunder. Instability wanes again on Thursday night, and models agree on a dry slot of sorts wrapping around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up during the night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 358 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Very blocky pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend with the upper level low continuing to spin over the Ohio river valley. Looks like eastern Kentucky will be located more or less in a semi-dry slot on Friday with showers exiting to our northeast and the main with the main low center retrograding back to the west into southern Illinois. This may keep most of the area dry on Thursday. A few showers may approach the I-75 corridor during the afternoon, but confidence is fairly low on this and thus, chance of rain will remain low. After another lull Friday night, the upper level low will make a slow track northward and send a vort max across central Kentucky. This may push a better chance for showers into central/northern Kentucky Saturday afternoon/evening. Again shower chances will likely stay across our western and northern zones. Upper level low will then slowly drift east across the great lakes and into New England over the weekend and into early next week with rain chances staying off to our north. This will spell a dry end to the weekend and dry conditions through the first half of next week. Temperatures will stay cool through the weekend with warmer weather on tap as we head through next week. Highs may climb back to around 80 or better by early to middle portion of next week as heights start to build over the area once again. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A scattered line of showers continues to push eastward through far eastern Kentucky this morning. Behind this line, CIGS have generally shown a downward trend and models have picked up on this. So have decided to take CIGS/VIS down to IFR/LIFR during the early morning period and then slowly recover them during the morning and afternoon hours. Confidence isn`t particularly high regarding the CIGS or the dense fog potential so sticking close to LAV guidance at this time. VCSH is possible this afternoon as the upper level system resides right over top of the region. Depending on the amount of low level moisture tonight and afternoon shower activity, fog will be possible again towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JVM

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