Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201950 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Current radar mosaic is showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region with slightly better coverage across central portions of the Commonwealth. Expect this activity will continue for a few more hours before waning around sunset. Models are in good agreement through the short term. Additional short wave energy will drop down into the area tomorrow on the south side of a developing mid/upper level ridge. This ridge will nose its way northeastward through the period, expanding from the southern plains into the mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and then into the Great Lakes by end of the day Thursday. Sensible weather will see another night with fog. However, while the fog will be locally dense in places expectations are that the overall coverage and intensity should not be quite as bad as last night. With short wave energy riding along the southeastern edge of the ridge Thursday, can not rule out another day of isolated convection across the area tomorrow, similar to the last couple of afternoons. Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees above normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 The period will be controlled by upper level ridging moving across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and surface high nosing south from time to time. This well established ridge will keep the tropical systems well away from the Ohio Valley. The only issue will be the potential for mainly valley fog and slight ridge valley temperature splits in the morning. However, towards the end of the long term period we do see signs of the eastern lower 48 ridge breaking down, and this will allow for slightly cooler afternoon temperatures (closer to average for this time of year) and lowering heights.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Respectful CU field out there this afternoon but considerably less coverage in shower activity as compared to yesterday at this time. Just the same we are seeing convection firing across the far east and in the south-southwest where there is a bit better instability and shear. Coverage is not widespread enough to include mention in the TAFs but will amend should something threaten any terminals. Otherwise, expecting the redevelopment of fog overnight, becoming locally dense in places. Expectations are that fog will not be quite as bad as last night. Followed guidance closely but tended to go slightly more optimistic overall. Winds will be light and variable through the entire period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY

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