Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301046 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 646 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SAT AND OB DATA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THEN DIMINISH IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALSO UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 THIS MORNING OBS AND SAT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLOUD DECK DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY SKIRT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS BY LATER THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE NW BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FROM NW TO SE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO LATE AFTERNOON WE WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE SO A ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LESSER ACROSS SW WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 A COMPLEX FORECAST IS ON TAP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXPECTED FIRST SNOW AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL. WHILE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT...STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...IT COULD CHANGE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER. FOR NOW...OPTING TO GO WITH A MORE COMPROMISED SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS. AS IT STANDS NOW... THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATER IN THE NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK BACK UP. THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...TRAILING OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH COLD ADVECTION ALREADY INTO FULL GEAR AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...EVENTUALLY EVEN THE VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM GROUND...NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PLAN TO GO WITH AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES FOR AREAS ON BLACK MOUNTAIN...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND A HALF INCH ON RIDGES ABOVE 1000 FEET...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO A TENTH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS. IT IS POSSIBLE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW COULD PUT DOWN A BIT MORE SNOW IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME ACCUMULATING ON THE WARM GROUND. WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE AREA...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...MAKING IT LOOK MORE LIKE WINTER THAN FALL ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FROM READINGS IN TH LOW 30S EARLY IN THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY RIDGE LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET BACK TO 40. FORTUNATELY...THE SLIGHT WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW IN THE MORNING BACK OVER TO RAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS OF QUESTION STILL SURROUNDING HOW FAST WE WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...MAY LIMIT ANY FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND KEEP US FROM HAVING A HARD FREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HARD FREEZE WOULD BE TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST CHANCE AT CLEARING WILL RESIDE. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD FINALLY BE CLEAR AREAWIDE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH READINGS AROUND 30 ON THE RIDGES. PLAN TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN THE HWO AND SPS. ALSO PLAN TO INCLUDE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EXPECTED SNOW IN THE SPS. STRONG RIDGING WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CREEPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER WEATHER TO RETURN AND EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING IN THE MODELS...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK...EXACTLY WHEN IS THE QUESTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT APPEARS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS AT ABOUT THE 3K FT AGL LEVEL AND WOULD AGREE WITH UPSTREAM OBS AS A LARGE AREA OF SC IS ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTEND. THIS APPEARS TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO SYM AND SJS. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER...LOZ AND SME...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND WILL DROP VIS FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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