Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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680 FXUS63 KJKL 292035 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 435 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The models are in good agreement with cyclonic flow aloft and continuing to suppress the upper level ridging to the south. This will interact with the nearby boundary to bring chances of storms through the short term period. This afternoon WSR-88D showing showers and thunderstorms are moving east mostly across areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway. Some of these storms will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds. These storms are expected to spread east into the early evening hours. HRRR has a decent handle on the main area of precip across the southern half of the CWA. Therefore blended pops in that direction given the reasonable timing. It does look like much of the convection will be diurnally driven, but given the pattern keep isolated pops through the night. Another issue that remains in question tonight will be fog and how much we see. Right now will go with at least patchy fog in the valleys but cloud cover could help mitigate some locales. Then another stormy day on tap for Saturday, as higher PWATS remain in place and quasi stationary boundary remains near. Right now once again going scattered coverage in the afternoon hours. Not really favoring any certain model at this point and went toward a blend approach at this point given the scattered coverage. Once again expecting more in the way of diurnally driven activity and therefore lessen the coverage once again on Saturday evening. Temperatures through the short term period will run near normal. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 435 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all depict a retreat of the Great Lakes trough through the start of next week while strong mid level ridging reloads over the southern plains and east through the Deep South/Tennessee Valley. As this happens, though, plenty of energy will drift through the Ohio Valley from Sunday through Monday before higher heights shunt it all off to the northeast, temporarily. After this, the ridge does retreat to the southwest a tad and subsequently allow for more ridge riding energy packets to potentially target eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday, most clearly evident in the latest ECMWF. Given the general agreement, a model blend looks to be a reasonable place to start for gridded forecast purposes. Sensible weather will feature rounds of mainly diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Heat will gradually rebuild through the area for the start of the week with some 90 degree readings anticipated for the latter part of the forecast. However, the worst of this round of heat will likely be tempered by scattered convection from Wednesday to Friday. It looks like the lowest PoPs will be from Monday night through Wednesday morning as the core of the ridge is closest to our area and SFC high pressure builds in briefly from the northeast. For the CR initialization: made some minor changes to MinT and hourly T each night with some terrain differences anticipated due to radiational cooling in the valleys. Did make some mainly diurnal adjustments to PoPs through the forecast period, as well. The rest came in real good.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 There is a mix of VFR and MVFR to start the period. WSR-88D radar shows that showers and storms have expended across the region as expected. This will make TAFs difficult given the scattered nature and uncertainty attached. Right now will add a TEMPO group to SME/LOZ where activity will be more prevalent. The storms will be mostly diurnally driven and we should see activity wane by this evening. Then we will see potential for fog/stratus issues overnight into the AM hours once again. The question is to what extent given cloud cover and therefore kept most MVFR. Did opt to go lower at SME/LOZ where more storm activity is expected. Light winds will be the story, but any storm could produce a brief higher gust. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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