Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020830 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 430 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A CLOSED LOW TRACKING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. THIS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE MAIN LIFT AND INSTABILITY HANGING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRODUCED WILL ALSO HINDER HEATING. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TODAY. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LACK OF HEATING FROM TODAY WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. WITH SOME CLEARING...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AND POSSIBLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SHOWERS MOVE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MORE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN RANGE AND BRINGS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY A BIT MORE ABUNDANT. ESPECIALLY WITH MAX TEMPS POISED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WINDS STILL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STILL LOOK TO SEE A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH PWATS AT 1.30. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN TN AND SOUTHEAST KY BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL RESIDE IN THIS LOCATION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH IT HAS KEPT THIS TREND OVER THE LAST 2 MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN SUCH STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. THE CLOSED LOW WILL START TO SHIFT SE BY FRIDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT DOES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DOWNSLOPING PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AND AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG RANGE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING IS STILL QUITE VARYING IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...HELD ON TO A MODEL BLEND OF THE LONG RANGE ECMWF AND GFS...UNDERCUTTING POPS AT TIMES WHEN ONE MODEL HAD TOO MUCH INFLUENCE OVER THE OTHER. AS FOR EXPECTANT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA...THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS /WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KY/...AND AN ENE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE TO FLOW IN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH DAY DAY. DID GO AHEAD AND REINTRODUCE ISL THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...JUST BECAUSE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A ROUGE THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE /CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K RANGE/. EVEN IF WEAK AND SHORT LIVED...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. BY EVENING...THE FIRST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION...MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING A RESURGE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SURFACE FRONT TRAVERSING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS KY SOMETIME BETWEEN 0Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE BETTER DEFINED AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO THE ONSET. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HOLD ON WHEN...WHERE...AND TO WHAT MAGNITUDE THE PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE CWA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP THUNDER MENTION THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. ONCE THE COLD FRONT DOES PASS THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST TO OUR SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF SRLY FLOW AND CONTINUED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCORDING OT THE GFS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS DECENT FROM THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY JUST AFTER THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH SPECIFICS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNDEFINED...IT IS LIKELY THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF THIS PATTERN PANS OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP FIELD MIN CIGS AT NEARLY ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THIS...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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