Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172024 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 324 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 208 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Hourly grids have been updated based on KFGX observation and social media reports to lower temperatures in mainly far northern Fleming County to near or just above freezing. Some mixed precipitation has been falling further south to locations north of I 64. Generally a dusting to one half of an inch should fall in most of this area. With a half of an inch to one inch possible in northern Fleming County. The snow could come down hard enough, mainly in northern Fleming County for a bit of slush on the roadways at times. With accumulations expected to remain at no more than an inch due to temperatures at or above freezing, and locations nearing an inch expected to only be a fraction of far northern Fleming County, an SPS was issued for the next couple of hours for the far northwest counties. The heavier rainfall closer to the TN border continues to remain the main concern with rain rates having picked up over the past couple of hours. Some locations are nearing an inch of rain if not having exceeded an inch of rain already. Flooding of low lying areas near the TN and VA borders is anticipated with rises on area rivers. UPDATE Issued at 1205 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Rain continues to overspread the region late this morning with KFGX observation pointing toward the possibility of mixed rain and snow or even just plain snow and above freezing temperatures in far northern Fleming County. Any snow or mixed rain and snow in the far north should change to just plain rain in the next 1 to 2 hours. Rainfall rates so far have not been that intense, although heavier rainfall rates recent in the 0.2 to 0.3 inch per hour rain over parts of middle TN are upstream. Most of the guidance points toward that activity to move into the Upper Cumberland portions of the near the TN border and then spread northeast along the VA border. The 6Z and 12Z model guidance, especially from the NAM and GFS have higher qpf near the VA and TN borders, especially in the Bell, Harlan, and Letcher county area. With this in mind, QPF has been increased a third to a half of an inch across the southernmost counties. The Flood Watch remains valid with no changes at this time. Radar trends and rainfall rates will continue to be monitored for any changes that might be needed. Instances of rock and mudslides as well as ponding of water on roadways are expected. Rises on creeks and streams may lead to low lying area flooding with rises on several points on the rivers expected. Confidence is greatest of downstream points reaching flood stage on the Cumberland and Kentucky basins, but this is all dependent on QPF. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Isolated rain showers will be moving into the southwestern portion of the forecast area early this morning. The forecast is still on track with this for the most part, so major update is required at this time. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. && .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to eastern Kentucky today, as it makes it way across the Tennessee valley. There may be a slushy mix of rain and snow along the leading edge of the precipitation this morning, as it moves from south to north across eastern Kentucky. There may be some light slushy accumulations in isolated locations, but all in all the snow should have very few if any impacts. The snow should be gone by around noon today, as temperatures will have warmed well above freezing by then. The rain should taper off quickly this afternoon and evening, and should be gone by around dawn on Sunday. Another weather system may bring a second round of rain to the area by early Sunday evening. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 40s on tap across the area. Tonight`s lows will likely be above normal, due to the influence of cloud cover and a brief period of southwest flow. A warm up is in store for Sunday, as winds shift around to the southeast and south, which could lead to some downslope warming during the day across eastern Kentucky. We should see highs on Sunday rise into the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 324 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 A warm front will lift north at the start of the period with some showers ongoing to start the day Monday. However, as the ridge over the eastern CONUS builds, heights will shoot upwards early in the week. With downslope flow and very anomalous high heights over the area on Tuesday, we could be looking at easily breaking some record highs and perhaps all time February record highs. The February record highs sit at 79 for Jackson and 81 at London. We have a pretty good chance to break that at Jackson, but London may be closer. A slow moving front will eventually push east by midweek, with rain chances spreading back into the area. Instability doesn`t look fantastic, but shear is great. Thus, we could see a potential for a few strong storms come Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially if the instability trends upwards. This will be something to monitor over the next several days, especially with the record warmth already in place across the region. Still some question how long the frontal zone may linger over the area late next week, so will maintain some rain chances through the end of the week and into next weekend. With ground already very saturated with near record February rainfall and rivers running high into early next week, more flooding concerns may return by mid to late next week. Looks like the mild weather will continue through the remainder of the extended as well.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 MVFR to IFR with rain showers are currently affecting the TAF sites with this persisting in most areas through around 21Z to 01Z. Some locations may fall to near or below airport mins at times. Although the rain will taper off by 3Z in all locations MVFR and IFR should prevail in most locations through 9Z, with improvements to VFR from northwest across the entire area thereafter. Winds should be generally light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ080-084>088-110- 113-115>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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