Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281802 AAC AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 202 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and trends. This led to very little change in forecast high temperatures, but pops were adjusted based on radar and short term model trends. This led to scattered pops over the western counties and slight chance for southeastern locations. UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and trends. The ZFP was updated to remove the valley fog as the valley fog has dissipated in all locations over the past hour or so. Recent HRRR runs continue to have a bit more convection at midday into the early afternoon across the southeast counties where convection occurred on Friday. Cu fields will continue to be monitored in that area for the need for some slight pop adjustments. Overall, the previous forecast was on target and no significant changes were needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Just a quick update to touch up the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place, conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS. The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily. Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO. Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty coverage. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis through the remainder of the period. At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather will continue through the end of the period and into the following weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Outside of heavier showers and any thunderstorms as well as fog between 6z and 14z, VFR should prevail. Isolated to scattered convection is anticipated, mainly through 0Z and then again late in the period after 9Z. As previously noted, the renewed potential for fog later tonight, should mainly be dictated by places that experience any rain this afternoon or evening and the typically favored valley locations. Winds will remain light through the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP

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