Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 232004 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 404 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST. PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL. MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY

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