Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311219 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT IN EARNEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND IS MOVING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MEASURING IN THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY MEASURING IN THE SOUTH. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALOFT... TROUGHING REMAINS POISED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING RESIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. A MUCH MORE INTENSE SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SPIRALING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT WAVE...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR IS PULLED IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. DETAILS ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO VARY WITHIN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WARMER TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT THE SNOWFALL TOTALS UNCHANGED...WITH THE CHANGEOVER TIMING ALSO PRETTY SIMILAR COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSES IN THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE STUCK ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MOST LOCATION SETTLING AT EITHER SIDE OF THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT FILLS IN RAPIDLY AGAIN AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG BLACK MOUNTAIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER DUSK...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATIONS NEAR THE 1500 FOOT MARK STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT OF A SLUSHY INCH ACCUMULATION...WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN WINDING UP WITH AROUND A HALF FOOT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ELSEWHERE...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL RESIST THE ACCUMULATION...WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHS...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL COMBINE WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT...LEADING TO LOSS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY TO PRODUCE SNOWFLAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO NIGHTS OVERALL...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED. OUR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS WILL BE THE COLDEST SPOTS AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER...SO ONLY GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WITH THE GFS MODEL WASHING OUT THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY...DECIDED NOT TO GO GANG BUSTERS WITH POPS FOR THE TIME BEING...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MODEST WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...AS THE MERCURY RISES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING MVFR STATUS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...FIRST IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CLOSER TO 00Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DOWN TO THE VALLEYS WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE...WITH LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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