Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190203 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY... SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER... CAMPING ANYONE? && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...HAL

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