Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS63 KJKL 010757
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
357 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016
-- Changed Discussion --(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016
Upper low continues to slowly propagate north, now located just
about directly over Cincinnati. This will keep isolated shower
chances confined to the Bluegrass region down toward Lake
Cumberland as upper forcing continues to depart off toward the
lower Great Lakes today. Thunder chances still looking anemic
with surface-based instability of perhaps a couple hundred J/kg
complete with a stout temperature inversion near 700 mb.
Increasing heights/thicknesses and warmer air advecting in on
southwesterly flow will be somewhat offset by increasing cloud
cover rotating into the region this morning and afternoon, keeping
high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Weak surface ridging will build north tonight across southeastern
Kentucky, allowing for another appreciable ridge/valley split as
valley temperatures dip into the upper 40s with ridgetops
remaining in the low-mid 50s. Shower chances will continue as
energy skirts around the southern flank of the upper low riding
through the southern Great Lakes. Valley fog will also be in the
offing, especially across southeastern Kentucky where quicker
clearing will take place.
Sunday will offer up one final day of isolated showers, mainly
north of Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 in closer vicinity to any
impulses which may clip eastern Kentucky. Cloud cover will slowly
diminish from south to north through the day with warmer air once
again kicking in aloft, allowing for high temperatures to reach
normal values in the low-mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016
The Long Term Discussion will be issued shortly.
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.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016
An upper level low continues to meander across the Lower Ohio
Valley. This will lead to bands of clouds through the period and
the threat of isolated showers, moreso at SYM. Patchy valley fog
will continue to develop as clearing has been robust early on, but
will see clouds fill in through the morning from the west. This
should inhibit much in the way of dense fog development as stratus
and associated ceilings may become more of a concern. MVFR
visibilities/ceilings continue to look probable through the night
for most sites, with VFR conditions returning by mid Saturday
morning. Showers look to dissipate before reaching SYM at this
time, but will continue to monitor for additional development.
Southwest winds will increase to near 5-10 knots this morning
before diminishing this evening.