Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230134 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED EXTENSIVELY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE PIKE...JOHNSON...AND FLOYD COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OUT OF FLOYD...ESTILL...AND PIKE COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING. MANY REPORTS WILL LIKELY BE RECEIVED AS OUR 24 HOUR WARNING POINTS ARE ABLE TO RELAY THEM TO US. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...SKY COVER...QPF...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT REAL TIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THE CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS. THESE CHANGES WERE MOSTLY COSMETIC AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE CHANGES TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY WASHED OUT BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS LEADS BACK WEST TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH HEIGHTS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TROUGHING IS FOUND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LEADING ONE OF THESE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING SHAPE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE PRE DAWN MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOTED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ARE MAKING FOR MISERABLE HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE PROVIDING FUEL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALOFT AS THEY ALL WOBBLE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IN THE FACE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH DROPPING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THESE LARGER FEATURES...THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...JUST ORIENTATED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THIS FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A THREAT OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING... PERHAPS LENGTHENED BY ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST THAT COULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE JKL CWA AFTER DARK... PER THE LATEST HRRR. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. AGAIN TONIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SPOTS LOCALLY GIVEN ANY CLEARING. AFTER A MUGGY NIGHT...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT FAVORING OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PWS AND INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL SET THE TABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS...THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY A GENERALLY BENIGN NORTHWEST WIND FIELD ALOFT. SIMILARLY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY AND WARM ONE WITH PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED FOR PLACES THAT WOULD HAVE SEEN RAIN DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY SUNDAY GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND NEARBY SFC BOUNDARIES. AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TERRAIN FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN BETWEEN THE MAV AND THE WETTER MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...FINALLY BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH LOW POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH DRY WEATHER EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FEW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING PRIOR TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THUS...OVERALL...LOOK FOR A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD PUT THE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS KEPT IT TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEEKS END. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH...PROBABLY GOING TO SEE WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AFFECTING JKL AND SJS THROUGH 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THAT JKL WILL EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST DURATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO FOCUS ON FOR TAF PURPOSES WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT IN CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT JKL OR SJS COULD LEAD TO MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE THE RAIN AND WINDS WITH THESE STORMS ARE. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO SET...GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM 15Z ONWARD ON SATURDAY. AS FOR TONIGHT...LOZ AND SME MIGHT BE SPARED THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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