Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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032 FXUS63 KJKL 101835 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 135 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 135 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Skies have mostly cleared now and temperatures for most spots have at least made it to near 30 degrees with another couple of degrees possible. Have fine tuned the sky grids and T/Td ones per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 14z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky. This led to a chilly start to the day with most locations in the teens at sunup. There was even some patches of locally dense fog around the Somerset area. The fog is now starting to break up while a band of slow to clear out lower clouds are still plaguing northeast parts of the area. Satellite trends and the latest near term model data suggest that these will dissipate by noon for most of the places currently stuck under the clouds. A return of sunshine should help temperatures to recover more completely later this afternoon. Current readings in the low to mid 20s most places will climb into the low and mid 30s by mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, dewpoints will stay fairly steady in the upper teens and lower 20s along with light and variable winds. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune sky cover through the afternoon and also to adjust the T and Td ones per the latest obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 649 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Pesky stratus continues to linger about, but should see this lift and mix out by mid morning. Nonetheless, the coldest morning of the season thus far has materialized with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 20s across northeast Kentucky underneath this stratus, to very near single digits in valleys across southeast Kentucky.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 West/northwest flow will be in place aloft today following Friday`s upper trough. Remnant energy will remain across southern Canada into the Ohio Valley today, but precipitation will be limited to across the northern Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes in closer proximity to shortwave energy traversing Ontario and the Great Lakes along with an attendant surface low. Surface ridging will keep dry low levels in play locally, thus making for a dry Saturday across all of eastern Kentucky. Once any lingering low stratocumulus mixes out and/or lifts north this morning, cloud cover will be confined to above roughly 7k feet as some altocumulus and cirrus stream in. Although heights will slowly rise aloft as warmer air trickles in, high pressure overhead will keep cold air entrenched, spelling a chilly day once again with high temperatures only making it into the low-mid 30s. High pressure will shift east tonight, veering winds southeasterly as return flow ushers in yet warmer air aloft. However, given low wind speeds overnight, still expecting temperatures to fall through this evening and tonight following atmospheric decoupling. Will have to monitor mid-high clouds regarding exactly how far temperatures will be able to fall by daybreak Sunday, but currently expecting low-mid 20s for the most part. Far eastern Kentucky may see a better ridge/valley split nearer the departing ridge, but cloud cover may again put somewhat of a damper on this. Nonetheless, a few sheltered valleys should be able to reach the upper teens in the Big Sandy region. Backing southwesterly flow aloft on Sunday, downstream of an upper trough riding through the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, will bring much warmer air in aloft. Temperatures should make a run at climatology as highs rebound into the mid-upper 40s. Some gusty south winds will be likely in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions as the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low moving through the upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Not expecting much in the way if any rainfall prior to Sunday evening as better height falls and low level moisture recovery look to occur then. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 The extended period looks to start off wet with near normal temperatures Sunday night and Monday. A cold front is forecast to move across the region from the west to begin the period. This boundary will bring widespread rain showers with it as it moves off to the east. The best chance for rain will occur from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. The rain is then expected to taper from west to east Monday evening, with the last shower exiting eastern Kentucky late Monday evening. We can expect a break from the wet weather Tuesday, Tuesday night and most of Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over the region. The air mass associated with this ridge will bring near normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. The ridge will begin to break down and move off to our east late in the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a trough of low pressure ejects from the Plains and heads our way. This trough will be a bit disorganized, however, and will be a somewhat starved for moisture, so only isolated to scattered showers and are expected as this system moves across the region Wednesday afternoon and night. A mix of rain and snow is possible late Wednesday night, as colder air filters into the region. The precipitation may even transition to all snow by dawn on Thursday. The precipitation should be out of the area by early Thursday morning. A second ridge of high pressure will settle over the region Thursday through Friday morning. This system is forecast to bring another very cold air mass to the region to end out the week. In fact, we may see highs only in the 20s and 30s on Thursday and Friday. We will see another chance for precipitation Friday and Friday night, as an area of low pressure approaches from the south. The precipitation should start out as rain initially, but a quick transition to a rain/snow mix and then all snow is possible during the day on Friday, as surge of cold air associated with a northern stream trough pushes into our area. Some snowfall accumulations are possible Friday and Friday night, but confidence in the forecast that far out is very low at this time, so no specific snow amounts will be mentioned for now. Overall temperatures will start out near normal, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s Monday and Tuesday, with Monday being the warmer of the two days. A cool down should begin on Wednesday, with highs expected to top out at below normal values between the mid 30s and mid 40s. The end of the week will see a dramatic chill occur, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday. Nightly lows will also vary greatly, with min values in the upper 30s and lower 40s possible Sunday night and in the 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. After that, we can expected progressively colder temperatures, with lows bottoming out in the teens and 20s from Wednesday night through Friday night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Only aviation note of concern will be the remnants of a low stratus cloud batch across the north that is quickly eroding early this afternoon. This and subsequent MVFR ceilings should be gone over the next hour, leading to the return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable with high pressure parked overhead through the overnight hours with a pick up from the southwest on Sunday morning at 5 to 10 kts.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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