Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010706 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 306 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BEHIND A WASHED OUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THESE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING WITH THE AREAS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER STAYING MILDER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THESE CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW WITH NO DEPTH. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S...ONLY THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL RAPIDLY YIELD TO A LARGE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BULL DOZE ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE FRIDAY...SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A SOLID SHOT OF COLDER AUTUMN LIKE AIR AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...OR MORE SPECIFICALLY THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES THROUGH OUR AREA. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FOCUS MAINLY AROUND STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. A FEW IMPULSES BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL SERVE MAINLY TO REINFORCE THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SHOULD FORECAST SOUNDINGS BE REALIZED AND IN PARTICULAR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH H850 LLJ APPROACHING 50 KTS COMBINED WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT... LIS OF -3/CAPES ABOUT 1000 J/KG...THOUGHTS ARE THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SHEAR PROFILES SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE BULK SHEAR EXISTING IN THE LOWER 3 KM OF THE SOUNDING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOWING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...GREATER SFC BASED INSTABILITY WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING IN LATE FRIDAY. WITH STRONG MIXING THESE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY MODERATE FROM THERE AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...THE NEXT MOST IMMEDIATE BEING A FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A THEME OF THE GFS BEING WARMER AND THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE WARMER GFS IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER ECMWF OVERALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND IT. THIS PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS CLOUDING OVER WITH AN IFR/MVFR LAYER OF CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG THREAT...WHILE...STILL POSING AVIATION CONCERNS. GIVEN MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE STRATUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SAFE TO SAY...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE WE SEE CONDITIONS GO BACK TO VFR. SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. AFTER THE STRATUS BURNS OFF TOMORROW...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...KAS

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