Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030747 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 347 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...KAS

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