Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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136 FXUS63 KJKL 301752 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 152 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 152 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 WSR-88D radar showing a few more showers have developed this afternoon and for the most part our isolated in nature. These should become more scattered in nature through the afternoon as additional convection moves east out of north central KY. Mostly a maintenance update to deal with current obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1044 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 WSR-88D radar shows much of the rain shower activity has exited the CWA into the SW VA region. Mesoanalysis shows weak PVA residing across portions of northern KY, and this will combine with warm airmass and weak boundary along the Ohio River to bring scattered showers and storms this afternoon. The CAMS suggest this activity will be more prevalent in the northern half of the CWA, so kept pops slightly higher as you move toward to Mountain Parkway and I-64 area. Updated grids to reflect latest thoughts and obs/trends. UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent radar and observation trends. This led to slightly higher pops near the VA border over the next couple of hours. A relative lull in activity is anticipated late this morning into the early afternoon before daytime heating and the next approaching shortwave should combine with the moist airmass in place to bring scattered redevelopment.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Early this morning, the area was under the influence of broad troughing in between ridging form the Eastern Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and another ridge over the Desert Southwest. The westerlies are a bit stronger than earlier in the week with periodic shortwaves passing through the flow. The atmosphere remains more moist than climatology for late July. PW is currently analyzed near 1.75 inches on average across Eastern KY with the highest values nearer to the OH River from Northern KY east into the mid OH Valley region. The region is generally expected to remain under the influence of the trough through the period although heights will begin to rise a bit by Sunday as ridging builds into the Southeastern states. Although convection cannot be ruled out at any time given the moist airmass in place with weak shortwaves passing by from time to time, convection is expected to peak diurnally each afternoon and evening both today and on Sunday. Scattered coverage is expected during both periods, with the higher chances today and a bit lower chances on Sunday as moisture will not be as deep, atmosphere a bit more stable, and rising heights will be less favorable for development. PW is progged to remain near 1.75 inches on average today across Eastern and south Central KY and may be a tad higher at times and this combined with shortwaves rotating through the OH Valley and the nearly stalled out boundary from SW OH southwest near the OH River, an isolated location or two might experience training of storms or multiple stronger storms. Shear is a bit stronger than earlier in the week and PW is not as high, however, if or where any training or a location experiences a couple of stronger storms, locally heavy rain and the threat of high water issues would ensure given that most of the area has been on the wet side since mid week. PW is progged to decrease this evening and remain nearer to 1.5 inches on Sunday. Thus, the threat of locally heavy rain should decrease a bit to end the weekend. With the trough in place, and considerable cloud cover from time to time, diurnal ranges will be on the limited side. Temperatures will average near normal for the end of July through the short term period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 The extended period will feature a chance of showers and storms to begin the period, a short lived dry period from late Monday night through late Tuesday night, and off and on showers and storms from Wednesday through the end of the week. A meandering frontal boundary will provide the necessary lift to spark showers and storms during the period. Daily highs are expected to max out in the mid to upper 80s, with nightly lows in the mid to upper 60s across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Starting off with a mix VFR/MVFR this TAF issuance. WSR-88D radar showing a few showers our beginning to develop generally along and north of the I-64 corridor. Additional convection is setup across north central KY and will also spread east through the afternoon. For now only went with VCTS given the more unknown on who will actually receive a storm within the TAF site area. Would expect based on short term models that the best chances would be generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Then the next issue will be the potential for fog/stratus overnight. This will depend on cloud cover and early convection. Right now will keep sites in the MVFR to IFR range for vis restrictions around 5Z to 8Z and only going SCT low deck at this point. Again winds will remain light but gusty conditions with storms can not be ruled out. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ

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