Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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590 FXUS63 KJKL 190251 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1051 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1051 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 The forecast is still on track so far this tonight with no update needed. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 The forecast is looking good so far this evening. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. No other changes to the forecast were necessary at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Drier air is on the way in from the west and northwest late this afternoon. There were some very isolated showers yet over the eastern tip of the state, but coverage will probably end up being 10% or less, and it`s not worthy of including a 20% POP in the forecast. Otherwise, there`s nothing more than fair wx cu present, and these will dry up this evening to leave main clear skies tonight. A shortwave trough will pass through on Saturday. Forecast soundings show enough instability along with the dynamic support to warrant a low POP for thunderstorms in our far northern counties. Anything that occurs should end in the afternoon as the wave passes to the east. That will leave us with mainly clear skies again for Saturday night. Will look for our typical late summer fog each night-- developing first in the deeper valleys and then spreading. It will dissipate after sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 The upper level pattern shows good agreement from the model suites indicating rising heights to begin the forecast period. This will provide a platform for a break in the weather through Monday night. However, both Sunday and Monday we will likely see some afternoon CU, but this will not kill seeing the eclipse on Monday. Also did opt to paint a unorthodox diurnal curve to the hourly temperature grids given the eclipse and time of day. There remains some uncertainty to the amount of drop in temperature, given this will be dependent on other elements such as cloud cover and dewpoint. This will be better picked up by the HRRRX by Monday, as they have added the eclipse effects in the background of the model. Another upper level trough will be reloading in the Upper Midwest and will begin dig and suppress the upper level high by Tuesday. This along with the approaching cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms by Late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Right now timing wise the better chances of seeing rainfall will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Then the big question will be does the front make it across the region Wednesday, but right now the models are in decent agreement with this front moving east. This would lead to a overall better end to the week next week, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70 and PWAT values dropping below 1 inch. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Fog will develop in valleys late tonight and spread in breadth and depth, probably affecting most TAF sites with MVFR conditions (or perhaps worse) at times toward dawn. JKL may or not see fog early tomorrow morning, depending on how suppressed the fog is in the surrounding valleys. Fog and low clouds will dissipate after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions everywhere by late morning. Clear to mostly clear conditions and light and variable winds are expected to prevail through out the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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