Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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864 FXUS63 KJKL 260250 CCA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1048 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Lack of instability and lingering subsidence has effectively brought an end to showers across the area this evening with the exception of a few light showers in the southwest. Otherwise, the shower activity has ended at least for the beginning of the night. Later tonight towards dawn, a weak disturbance combined with a weak low level jet may be enough for a few showers to pop up later tonight. Models are not handling this well and lack of instability bring up a few questions tonight. For now, went with slight chance of showers and changed from coverage to probability. A new zfp has been sent. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Current conditions across the area feature scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through eastern Kentucky. Most of this activity is on the wane as surface high pressure still just to the west is enough to break down this activity as it moves into the area. Have increased pops to the southwest as the incoming area should make it into the southwest counties before dissipating. With this...there should be a period later tonight with no activity before another wave moves into the area just before dawn. Updated the forecast and sent out a new zfp.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 329 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A cluster of showers, originating off the Cumberland Plateau and currently approaching the I-75 corridor, will continue to track northeast this afternoon. Surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG has developed and led to an afternoon cumulus field amid a steady stream of increasing mid to high clouds moving in from the west ahead of a disturbance stretching from southeast Saskatchewan through the Mississippi Valley. May see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bluegrass region, as this energy propagates toward eastern Kentucky. Further development will be possible across the higher terrain as additional low level forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Will see this pulse-type activity quickly dissipate as poor deep layer shear will lead to cold pools quickly overwhelming updrafts. Lingering shower activity will be possible through the night as southwest flow aloft will be characterized by microscale shortwave impulses. Instability looks to be low enough to negate thunder mention with a diurnally cooling boundary layer. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will only allow overnight lows to fall into a similar range as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains in place. Despite mid to high cloud cover persisting, patchy valley fog will be possible given near-surface saturation. A similar story continues for Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in a weakly forced environment. Highs rising into the mid 80s will again provide ample enough instability for pulse storms in a weakly-sheared environment. Following any lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in a moist environment. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 More summer like weather will remain the story for a good portion of the long term period. This is brought to us by a upper level ridge that will reside along the east coast, meanwhile a upper level closed low will be in place near the front range. This upper level ridge will keep the trough well west of the region. The issue here is we will reside on the periphery of this upper level ridge. This will result in the potential for a few weak waves, but right now models are remaining in little agreement overall. Given no definitive lifting features will stick with isolated showers and storms for now through much of the long term. There is another caveat as we move into early next week focus shifts to the tropics. There is a surface low that develops off the Carolina Coast this weekend and then remains quasi stationary with little if any steering flow. The NHC does paint the region in a 50% chance for tropical development in latest outlook. The GFS continues to and now the latest ECMWF bring a bit more moisture into the region, as a result of the tropical system by Wednesday. Therefore opt to introduce high chance pops along the VA border. Also given increased moisture and summer like pattern will see the potential for patchy valley fog in the mornings. Also areas that see any storms would expect a better chances of fog formation given increased moisture. Overall temps through the period will remain above normal, with highs topping out in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will be across the area through this evening before dissipating after midnight. Some showers moving into the area early this evening will impact a few TAF sites before finally dissipating. Locations that received rainfall this evening may see a bit of fog develop tonight but nothing that will sock in areas besides the normal river valleys. Another chance of showers will move into the area towards dawn. The chance is limited so at least put some vicinity showers in the TAFs. Winds are expected to be light through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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