Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240058 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED. FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A 50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JJ

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