Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040739 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND. THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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