Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200735 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 STORMS HAVE EXPANDED ALONG SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 2:30 AND 4 AM...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER TIME THE APPROACHING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO TIME IN THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE HRRR ...EXTRAPOLATION AND A MODEL CONSENSUS TO TRY AND TIME A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE 0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 12 MPH AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 1.6 INCHES TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES. THE INSTABILITY IS CLEARLY SUFFICIENT FOR ANY CONVECTION TO RESULT IN THUNDER. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A LINE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. && .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO WANE. EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NO THUNDER...FOR THE EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS A NEARLY CONSTANT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND A SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ESE ACROSS IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EAST KY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AFTER SUNSET AS THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. EVEN SO WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR VICINITY...AND MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. THE MUGGY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DIGGING TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THIS PERIOD...QUITE A FEW STRONG SHORTWAVES TRAVEL OVER THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF NOTE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. AFTER THIS...THE PATTERN TURNS INTO A MORE MCS DRIVEN PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY CENTERED AROUND WHAT THE DAYS CONVECTION BRINGS AND IS DIURNALLY AFFECTED. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. CONCERNING THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND EURO LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THOUGH...THE EURO LOOKS TO CUT OFF ANY CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LEADING TO AN END TO ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND DISPLACING THE TRACK OF THE MCS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT...IT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD CONSENSUS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE ALL BLEND MODEL. THOUGH DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z EURO DOES ON THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE AREA...MAY DROP POPS BELOW THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE ALL MODEL BLEND...THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND LESS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN EARNEST AS SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE SUMMER WILL BEGIN TO SET IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURPASS 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAWN. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...HAVE HANDLED MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCTS/VCSH AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOG TO SET IN BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z AS WELL...WITH THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ALONG WITH ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUSTAINED RAINFALL SEEING IFR OR WORSE FOG. THERE SHOULD BE A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY THREATEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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