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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 171904
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING. TODAY IS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN
YESTERDAY AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. THE HRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTION STARTING TO BLOSSOM SOON ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FORECAST IS ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS ARE MORE SLOW
MOVING THIS EVENING SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH SOME DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL BLEND EXCEPT FOR TOMORROW WHICH IS
A BIT WARMER THAN THE BLEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON ANY
ONE SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PRODUCING ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING DIFFERENT PERIODS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS ALSO FALLING IN LINE WITH THIS TYPE OF NEBULOUS
PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID...WITH WARM MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND
WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BASED ON THE SPARSE EVIDENCE AVAILABLE. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANYTIME DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 60S. VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSER FOG CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE TODAY AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS. THIS IS
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO BE WELL
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SO EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED TODAY EVEN
WITH THE STORMS BEING A FEW MILES AWAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
THERE IS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG/MIST FORMING IN THE
MORNING. THE FORECAST PRESUPPOSES THERE WILL BE AMPLE RAINFALL
TONIGHT. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR...THEN THE FOG WILL NOT BE AS BAD
AS IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ