Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211545 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE STRATOCU DECK PLAGUING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THINNING...HOWEVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN LONGER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ACTUALLY REDUCED THE SKY A BIT...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REIGN UNTIL RETURN FLOW ADVECTS IN LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S. WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 A FEW THINGS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SME HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE THIS FOG PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AFTER THAT THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. SJS...LOZ...AND JKL ARE ALL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS SYM. A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAS KEPT SYM BLANKETED WITH MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TREND IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16 OR 17Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AROUND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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