Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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826 FXUS63 KJKL 222057 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 357 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017 Nothing but cool and dry weather in the forecast in the short term. A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week and beyond. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap across eastern Kentucky. The weather feature of note in the short term will be ridge/valley temperature differences tonight and tomorrow night. The more well defined split should occur tonight, with valleys bottoming out in the lower 20s, with the surrounding ridges coming it in the mid 20s. A split will occur to some degree Thursday night, but should not be quite as well defined as tonight`s as some warming will occur during the day on Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017 The significant features during the period consist of two cold fronts. The models are in good agreement for the passage of the first front, but are showing terrible disagreement for the second one. The first one should pass during the day Saturday. Forecast soundings suggest moistening will occur from the top down along the front, but will not be able to completely overcome dry mid levels before the upper level support passes/wanes. A notable increase in cloud cover will be carried, but a dry forecast will be maintained. High pressure and a cooler air mass will build into the region behind the front and bring clear skies and a brief downturn in temperatures to start the new week. Another cold front is expected to reach the area around the middle of next week. Unfortunately, the models have become even more disparate in the 12z runs than they were before. The 12z GFS and Canadian bring the front through on Tuesday night, the GFS ensemble mean brings it through on Wednesday, and the ECMWF brings it through on Thursday. All models show at least light precip with the front. However, due to very low confidence in timing, nothing more than 30% POP will be carried in any given 12 hour period at this point. Timing of the front will also impact temperatures. Have followed a blend for the time being. That being the case, will expect the temperature forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday to change (possibly a considerable amount) as confidence in timing increases.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the end of the TAF period. SCT to BKN low level clouds will persist across the area through early this evening before finally scattering out and dissipating. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be on tap tonight through the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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