Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011954 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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