Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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614 FXUS63 KJKL 230001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 801 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 801 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Have updated to blend in early evening obs and represent the latest trends. That said, it has not resulted in any significant changes to the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350| PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Quiet weather expected through the short term making it basically a temperature and fog forecast. Persistence will be a decent forecaster through the period and tended to follow that line of thinking while working the grids. Each night should see the development of fog, mainly in the valley areas and near sources of water but with slight improvements each night. Temperatures will remain warm in general, especially afternoon highs. Increasingly drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 331 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 A surface high pressure and upper level high will remain in control of the sensible weather for much of the long range period. However, the upper level high will begin breaking down as we move toward midweek. Then a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley but the upper level ridging will still be in place. This will likely aid in mitigating much if any precipitation By Thursday, with isolated showers possible mainly far southeast. The other issue in seeing precipitation will be the attendant low pressure will be northeast of Maine by late Wednesday. Despite model divergence by the end of the week, we do stand the chance of seeing some much cooler air filter into the region behind this cold front. This could lead to a 15 to 20 degree lowering of afternoon high temperatures by Friday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 The only concern during the period will be dense late night/early morning fog. As usual, it will start in deep valleys and grow in breadth and depth through sunrise. Do not have high confidence in TAF forecasts involving the fog, and have depended to a large extent on persistence from last night. Fog will dissipate by late morning in most locations. Aside from the fog, conditions will be VFR. Winds will be 5 kts or less.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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