Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 202040 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 249 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 Current conditions across the OH Valley feature cloud cover developing and moving into eastern Kentucky from the west. Southwest flow continues to advect warm air into the area this afternoon with some spots warming into the middle 50s for highs today. Cloud cover will continue to thicken heading into tonight. Heading into tonight, with low level moisture on the increase, some rain will eventually develop into our area mainly in the north as the next system develops out in the central Plains. By the day on Sunday, a present but somewhat shallow moisture layer will keep instances of rain over the area through the day. The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of the area taking the rainfall with it. With this, the warm sector settles into the area for Sunday night with a continued inversion at 700mb. Thus will keep Sunday night with above normal low temps and dry as the cold front will not approach the area until Monday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Monday with an active progressive pattern in place. A well developed closed low crosses the central Plains into the Mid MS Valley during the day on Monday. During this time, a cold front crosses Kentucky into the eastern portion of the state. Strong low level winds with this approaching front will make for gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph possibly during the day on Monday and into Monday night. Instability will be at a minimum as well with showers expected to move into the area Monday morning and continue into Monday night. The amount of dry air in place may keep precip from developing into the area until the afternoon in some eastern locations. Given the overall dry pattern, rainfall totals at this point look to be less than a half an inch. Cold frontal passage will likely occur Tuesday morning. Post frontal winds look to be strong as well with some continued 30 mph winds possible. Unlike previous air masses following passage, this air mass lacks the extreme cold the previous ones have and a change over to snow may only happen on top of Black Mountain. In fact, lows on Wednesday morning will only drop into the mid 20s for lows and highs on Wednesday being right around average in the mid 40s. High pressure settles into the area by Wednesday and stays in place through the end of the period with temps being right around normal, if not slightly above. Forecast concerns seem to be with the onset of rainfall on Monday with the dry low levels to overcome. Any delay will cut down on rainfall totals. At this point, the only concerning weather seems to be with the wind potential Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 Expect a developed mainly MVFR cigs to hang over the area through the day today as a warm front develops to the south and slowly tracks northward tonight. As this feature moves north, a more prominent cloud deck at around 2 kft to 4 kft hangs over the area. Some showers will eventually develop over the area later tonight with little reduction to visibility. Winds will be southwest to west through this afternoon with some gusts up to 20 knots before switching around to the south later tonight with passage of the warm front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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