Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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766 FXUS63 KJKL 121948 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 WHILE THE LAST OF THE MORE STEADY AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST...IT WOULD STILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW SETTLES DOWN IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LAST BURST OF SNOW WHILE ALLOWING THE WESTERN PORTION TO EXPIRE. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS ALONG WITH FINE TUNING THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. THE WSW...HWO...AND ZONES WERE ALSO UPDATED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUICK HITTING BUT RELATIVELY WEAK CLIPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A ROUND OR TWO OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. IN THESE AREAS... VISIBILITY HAS BEEN BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES WITH PERIODIC ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADS...SO AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH OUR CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED. TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 10 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY... THOUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TO T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LIGHT SNOW GETTING SET TO PUSH INTO WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS THIS SWATH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. AREAS NORTH OF THIS MAY STILL SEE A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 MAIN SNOW BAND WAS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OBSERVED VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE SUGGEST SOME MODERATE POCKETS OF SNOW CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. A SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING UP TO HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NOTHING NORTH. WILL CURRENTLY OPT TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLAY THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT MAY VERY WELL END UP DROPPING AREAS FROM PRESTONSBURG WEST THROUGH JACKSON AND BOONEVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE FLAKES BEGIN TO FALL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE BRUNT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WET-BULBING AND BELOW FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION FROZEN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW POCKET OF SATURATION AHEAD OF A STRONGER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF A POTENT HUDSON BAY LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO KEEP LINGERING FLAKES IN THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AS SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS MATERIALIZE SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION COULD SEE THESE DROP TO AS LOW AS -5F WHILE A FEW RIDGETOPS MAY BE EVEN COLDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST WITH A STOUT COLD DOME IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE AND NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ...CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAYINCREASING... A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ONSUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TRANSPORTINGMOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONTNORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPINGSUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING UP THEENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWDEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHTHE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOWFALL RATES BEINGSOMEWHAT LIMITED BY LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WE SHOULD BELOOKING AT GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAYMORNING. AT THAT POINT...MODELS STILL IN NOT GREAT AGREEMENT FORMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS/NAM SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OFSNOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACHANGEOVER TO RAIN. THUS...SITUATION REMAINS VERY MUDDLED...ANDWILL STICK WITH A MENTION OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FROM LATE MONDAYMORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PER THE GFS ANDNAM WOULD OBVIOUSLY GIVE US MORE SNOW FOR THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUETO TRACK THIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARYWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHERSHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWS TO THE AREA. AGAIN...MODELS ARE FAR APARTON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...LIKELY CAUSED BY THEUNCERTAINTY IN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...WILL KEEP SNOWCHANCES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATEWEEK PERIOD...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE WARMING UP AS THE UPPERLEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 THE STEADIER SNOW WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY ON...VIS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO IFR AT LOZ AND TO MVFR AT JKL AND SJS. OTHERWISE...VCSH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT MOST SITES WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. CIGS...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING RUNNING GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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