Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 130550 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1235 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 The current forecast is on track for a chilly morning with a west to northwest wind adding to the chill. Outside of Black Mountain wind chills will well stay above zero through dawn. Did update the T and Td grids through the rest of the night per the latest obs and trends. also cleared out the sky cover even more based on the latest obs and satellite images. These minor updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1031 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2017 Tweaked temperatures down a couple more degrees tonight given the degree of both dry air and clearing filtering into eastern Kentucky. Expect lows to generally bottom out in the mid teens to near 20 degrees by daybreak Wednesday. UPDATE Issued at 652 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2017 Radar continues to show some light returns across portions of far eastern and northeastern Kentucky. However, dewpoints crashing into the single digits will likely result in any snow shower activity remaining as virga early this evening before exiting the Commonwealth. Clearing skies underneath the influence of surface ridging approaching from the west will lead to a cold night with temperatures bottoming out in the mid teens to lower 20s. While isolated slick spots will certainly be a possibility this evening and tonight, feel that the threat is far too limited to warrant any headlines given the degree of drying. This drying influence will be further exacerbated by ongoing gusty winds for the next couple of hours until the pressure gradient relaxes.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 352 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2017 Scattered snow showers were ongoing over the eastern portion of the forecast area late this afternoon in upslope cold air advection, but the back edge of the activity was shifting eastward as drier air advected into the area and the low level moisture mixed away. The last of the snow should end from west to east this evening, and no appreciable accumulation should occur. Clouds were already diminishing from west to east as well late this afternoon, and this trend will continue through most of the night as surface ridging builds in from the west and low level cold air advection eases, and warm air advection begins. Warm air advection will continue on Wednesday as a potent clipper type system moves southeast toward Ohio. Mid level clouds will likely show up at times over the northeast part of the forecast area, but dry low levels should prevent any precip. The low will pass to our north on Wednesday night, and all significant precip associated with the system will be to our north. However, the trailing cold front will bring another quick burst of colder air to the region beginning late Wednesday night. Once again, low level lapse rates will steepen, and forecast soundings suggest that the top of the shallow, moist convective layer may reach temperatures cold enough for ice production overnight over the northeast part of the forecast area. A low POP for snow showers will be included there. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with an amplified meridional pattern in place. The period begins with the OH Valley in northwest flow as a weak wave is in the process of swinging through the area. The next wave passes through the area by Friday afternoon but stays a tad further north than the previous. By the weekend timeframe, the pattern seems to become more progressive and less amplified as the closed low over the southwest CONUS ejects east into the lower MS Valley, this shifts east as another stronger wave moves through the Central Plains and into the Midwest. These features seem to combine over the OH Valley with the next shot of precip arriving for Sunday and Monday. Concerning the lower levels, the waves expected to impact eastern Kentucky on Thursday and again on Friday, while in upslope flow, still appear to be starved for moisture. A slight chance of snow showers will still be on tap for Thursday despite the lack of moisture but the Friday wave appears to be a tad too far north with a small chance over the far northern counties. Also expected, the daytime high temperatures will be a bit too warm for snow all day so will expect a mix and or change over to rain. A surge of moisture ahead of the stronger system Sunday evening into Monday will provide the next best chance for rainfall. As temperatures cool Sunday night into Monday, a few spots, especially the higher terrain may change over to snow before changing back to liquid by the daytime on Monday. At this point, there is little consistency to pin point any accumulation. Even so, it will be little to none at this point. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017 VFR conditions will persist through the period as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Look for west/northwest winds to persist at 5 to 10 kts through the night, before backing southwesterly and increasing to near 10-15 knots late Wednesday morning/afternoon as a low pressure system moves toward the upper Ohio Valley. Gusts Wednesday afternoon could reach 20-25 kts. Later Wednesday night wind shear looks to be a concern. Will examine that further for the 12z TAF cycle.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GUSEMAN/GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.