Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260554 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 154 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST DOWN THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS HAVING ALREADY MADE IT DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...WILL AWAIT WEAKENING CONVECTION OUT WEST TOWARDS DAWN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA. ALLOWED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIT THE POPS HARDEST WITH RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS WERE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP AND MOISTURE ALOFT AT -10C LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PULL OUT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPDATED TO BLEND LATE DAY OBS INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED TIMING/RATE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO MIN OR MAX TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WINDS HAVE OBTAINED A MORE SW HEADING WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING IN GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NORTHERN TX. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IT WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN KY AFTER 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER EXPECTED INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...A STRONG PULL OF COLDER NW AIR WILL STREAM IN...QUICKLY DROPPING NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AND CREATING A STRONG LLVL INVERSION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND LIKELY PREVENT ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AS TEMPS DROPPED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLETE LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY 21Z. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SO QUICKLY...LOW TO MID 30S CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO POTENTIALLY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW. THIS IDEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...AND SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STICKING TO SURFACES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 85H TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -14 C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST AND THE MEAN FLOW DEAMPLIFIES OVER OUR REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z...WITH JUST SOME CU AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL FROM TIME TO TIME. CONVECTION WILL THEN THREATEN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z...WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TOWARDS DAWN AND ESPECIALLY BY MID- MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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