Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 100852 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 352 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Stratocumulus continues to slowly drift eastward with a slight jog to the north as surface ridging builds overhead. This should keep overnight lows a touch cooler in the Cumberland Valley where clear skies will prevail as opposed to the Big Sandy region who will see radiational cooling somewhat limited. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 327 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Surface high pressure will continue to build east through the night. While the primary high will remain in Canada, but lobes of the high will progress east into the region and will crest around 09 to 12Z time frame. This combined with cold air mass in place and clearing skies will lead widespread teens across the region. The valleys in the SW will have the best chance of seeing lower teens given the high timing and placement. We will probably see a few clouds in the north where Stratocu remains this afternoon and perhaps you could see a flurry. However the moisture in the growth layer is not nearly as much as advertised for last nights snowfall. Surface high will move east through the day Saturday and upper level pattern will flatten out. While most of the area will get above freezing some spots could remain around freezing. There will also be some high to mid clouds sliding across the region. That said even though the high continues to shift east would think we could see upper teens in the far eastern valley locales once again for Saturday night. The question will be clouds given moisture moves across the Northern Ohio Valley region, but the precip stays well north of eastern KY through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 352 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 The extended period looks to start off wet with near normal temperatures Sunday night and Monday. A cold front is forecast to move across the region from the west to being the period. This boundary will bring widespread rain showers with it as it moves off to the east. The best chance for rain will occur from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. The rain is then expected to taper from west to east Monday evening, with the last shower exiting eastern Kentucky late Monday evening. We can expect a break from the wet weather Tuesday, Tuesday night and most of Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over the region. The air mass associated with this ridge will bring near normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. The ridge will begin to break down and move off to our east late in the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a trough of low pressure ejects from the Plains and heads our way. This trough will be a bit disorganized, however, and will be a somewhat starved for moisture, so only isolated to scattered showers and are expected as this system moves across the region Wednesday afternoon and night. A mix of rain and snow is possible late Wednesday night, as colder air filters into the region. The precipitation may even transition to all snow by dawn on Thursday. The precipitation should be out of the area by early Thursday morning. A second ridge of high pressure will settle over the region Thursday through Friday morning. This system is forecast to bring another very cold air mass to the region to end out the week. In fact, we may see highs only in the 20s and 30s on Thursday and Friday. We will see another chance for precipitation Friday and Friday night, as an area of low pressure approaches from the south. The precipitation should start out as rain initially, but a quick transition to a rain/snow mix and then all snow is possible during the day on Friday, as surge of cold air associated with a northern stream trough pushes into our area. Some snowfall accumulations are possible Friday and Friday night, but confidence in the forecast that far out is very low at this time, so no specific snow amounts will be mentioned for now. Overall temperatures will start out near normal, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s Monday and Tuesday, with Monday being the warmer of the two days. A cool down should begin on Wednesday, with highs expected to top out at below normal values between the mid 30s and mid 40s. The end of the week will see a dramatic chill occur, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday. Nightly lows will also vary greatly, with min values in the upper 30s and lower 40s possible Sunday night and in the 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. After that, we can expected progressively colder temperatures, with lows bottoming out in the teens and 20s from Wednesday night through Friday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Only aviation note of concern will be a stratocumulus deck slowly tracking east and northward. MVFR ceilings should persist at SJS/SYM for another few hours, before VFR conditions return for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable with high pressure parked overhead. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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