Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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158 FXUS63 KJKL 240238 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1038 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Not much to speak of expected in the forecast for the rest of tonight. Patchy dense valley fog is still on tap across the area, with mostly clear skies and calm winds expected otherwise. Aside from ingesting the latest obs into the grids to establish new trends, no changes to the forecast were deemed necessary at this time. UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Ingested the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. Aside from that, no other changes to the forecast were necessary at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 This is largely a persistence weather forecast with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. There has been a slight increase in low level moisture as evidenced by the increased cumulus field and this build up of clouds will likely reoccur tomorrow afternoon. There could be some mid and high clouds in the mix as well tomorrow as debris clouds from convection over the Upper Midwest drops to the southeast and dissipates. The increasing low level moisture should keep our temps a degree or two warmer tonight compared to last night, with similar gains expected again Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will again climb well into the 80s to near 90. About the only weather to be concerned with will be patchy valley fog early each morning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Models have come into much better agreement with the transition to a more fall-like weather pattern next week. This occurs as the trough now over the Intermountain West splits and the northern piece transitions eastward squashing the ridge and carving out a trough over the eastern CONUS by Wednesday. At the surface, all models have trended toward the faster and drier frontal passage solution shown in the last several ECMWF runs. As for sensible weather, unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Sunday and Monday. PoPs increase by Monday afternoon in advance of what now appears to be a Monday night frontal passage. There remains some uncertainty with how widespread any shower or thunderstorm activity will be with the frontal passage, but QPF looks meager, generally less than a quarter inch. Kept in a small PoP over our eastern counties on Tuesday, but the trend in the models is for the front to be to our east by Tuesday morning and for a much cooler and drier airmass to be moving in by that time. Dry high pressure will then rule through the rest of the week with very pleasant temperatures and humidity levels. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the weekend producing VFR conditions for most areas with light and variable winds. Patchy valley fog is again expected to develop tonight but this should stay confined to the deeper river valleys, so will not be mentioning fog at any TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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