Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010746 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 346 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDST OF A VERY BENIGN PATTERN. SURFACE CONDITIONS BEING A BIT DRIER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT IS PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT SOME AREAS ARE STILL SHOWING A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND THIS HAS BEEN STAVING OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT A BIT. HOWEVER...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED IN MOS DATA AND PERSISTENCE INDICATES THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FOG IN THE HWO AND THE ZONES. THAT SAID...EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A DRYING TREND AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND UP THE OH VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK SUPPORT IS TO THE EAST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS HAPPENING UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO MEAN WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH KY WEATHER DICTATED BY WEAK SUPPORT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIR. THAT SAID...THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE COUNTIES BORDERING VA WILL BECOME MOST LIKELY THE PLACES TO SEE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE LIKELY TIME WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HI RES MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COUPLING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSSIBLY SPAWN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS HARLAN AND BELL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN THE PATTERN AND THIS OCCURRING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH PERSISTENCE AND SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE VA AND WV BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS (ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HUMID AS IT COULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). DESPITE THE RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EVEN MORE REMOTE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT THERE JUST WON`T BE THAT MANY TO SPEAK OF. BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOULD BE A DECENT WEEKEND FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG WILL DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND HAVE INDICATED THIS AT THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO THE DAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS DEVELOPING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ALL DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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