Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 100129 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 829 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8 HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES. GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 739 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 9Z. MOST SITES WILL AVERAGE THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE TO MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. DURING THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP

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