Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO BE ISOLD AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DISSIPATING BY AROUND SUNSET. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE...MAKING IT FEEL LESS COMFORTABLE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TENDENCY TO THEM BY SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RAY

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