Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301913 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST TWO PERIODS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT AND CIGS LIFTING WITH CU DEVELOPMENT ON THE INCREASE. WITH THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 10 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. AFTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BEGIN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. AND SO HAVE PUT SOME IFR AND BELOW LINES IN THE TAFS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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