Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210830 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FAR EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY... AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES /GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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