Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240145 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 945 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 944 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Continuing to monitor and update pops/weather for latest radar trends over the last couple of hours. It looks as though there is a scattering out/back edge starting to move into our SW counties now, and across portions of central KY. With this last update, went ahead and knocked pops down across the west a bit faster based on these latest trends, though will keep isolated to scattered POPs in through much of the night until we have a better idea of the latest radar and CAM trends. Also loaded in the latest observations to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. All changes have been been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will issue an update on the zones as well as the HWO. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Made a few more tweeks to pops and weather based on latest radar trends over the last couple of hours. Also loaded in the most up to date observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with current conditions. A band of heavy rain is now impacting our northern CWA with reports of flash flooding now coming in. Will continue to monitor this and make adjustments in the grids as needed. As of now all grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web with no updates to the forecast package needed. UPDATE Issued at 502 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Small update to freshen up the near term grids to make sure they were on track with current conditions. Also updated pops and weather based on the latest radar trends and hi-res model data, with more widespread precipitation now entering into the western CWA and expected to continue and progress eastward throughout the afternoon/evening. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Since the afternoon package ZFP started with tonight wording, these updates should not impact the current product.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Severe weather and flash flood threat continue this evening. Center of tropical depression Cindy has moved into western KY while cold front now stretches from southeast MI through northwest IN to OK. The low pressure center will continue to move ENE while the front advances southeast. The interaction of these systems will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area this evening and early tonight. Higher precipitable water is now advancing into eastern KY in advance of the remnants of Cindy. Precipitable water will increase to 2 to 2.25 inches so showers and thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers. Rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. It does appear the heavy rain threat will mainly be confined to the time frame before midnight, but will allow the flash flood watch to continue as is, though it will likely be able to be cancelled early. As noted earlier today the surface to 1 KM storm relative helicity will approach or exceed 400 m2/s2 this afternoon and evening. Some rotating storms are likely and with rather low lifting condensation levels a rotating storm could result in a brief tornado touchdown. While breaks in the clouds this afternoon have allowed for low level lapse rates to increase, mid level instability remains rather limited. While a damaging wind and tornado threat exist, any occurrences of severe weather are expected to be isolated. After the frontal passage tonight cooler and drier air will begin to move into the area for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 The long term portion of the forecast will be highlighted by a stretch of dry weather with well below normal temperatures resulting from a mean upper level ridge in the western part of the U.S. and a trough in the eastern part of the country. 850 mb temperatures will drop to the single digits Celsius early next week, and we`ll see a multi-day stretch with maximum temperatures in the 70s and and minimums in the 50s. Dewpoints will be around 50 degrees for the first part of the week. By the end of the week the trough will be lifting out and flow will become more zonal and temperatures will warm and dewpoints will increase back into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 TAFS are currently being impacted by a combination of moisture from tropical depression Cindy, combining with an approaching cold front, producing widespread heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms to much of eastern Kentucky. The heaviest rain is currently aligned in a band along the northeast portion of the state, impacting KSYM. Over the next few hours, expect this rain to continue to shift eastward as it slowly loses strength through about 6Z. Winds will generally be from the S to SW and a bit gusty, especially in any of the heavier rain/storms. After 6Z, the rain will become less of a factor, and winds will diminish, however residual moisture will likely lead to fog at the TAF sites, and continued cloud cover throughout the night. Have included a slow deterioration to below airport mins (mainly for VIS) between 9Z and 11Z at all TAF sites, however timing and exact impacts may need to be tweaked as fog sets up. By tomorrow, a drier airmass will begin to take hold. Once fog lifts and dissipates in the morning, expect only a few VFR fair weather CU throughout the afternoon. Winds will generally be from the west under 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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