Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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323 FXUS63 KJKL 280745 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place, conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS. The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily. Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO. Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty coverage. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis through the remainder of the period. At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather will continue through the end of the period and into the following weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Some MVFR fog will be possible through the rest of the night, though mostly cloudy skies and light southeast winds should limit it to just in the valleys and areas that saw heavier rainfall. Any fog will burn off by around 12z, with a return of scattered convection for Saturday afternoon. Light south to southeast winds will gradually veer to the southwest through Saturday. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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