Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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244 FXUS63 KJKL 241940 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 The afternoon surface analysis does show a surface high to our northeast, and this remains one of the main controlling factors of the sensible weather across the Ohio Valley. We have had some CU develop mainly in the Cumberland Valley region this afternoon and this CU will dissipate through the evening. This surface high and upper level high remains in general control through the period. This will continue to be a good platform for valley fog in the overnight and early morning hours. That said, think the overall better mixing in the Bluegrass should limit fog production similar to this this morning. Then forecast time heights and soundings do show better upper level moisture working into the region as we move toward Monday, and this will provide more high clouds to the region. We will probably see a few CU in the afternoon Monday, but this will again dissipate in the evening. Overall models have handled the forecast well in the short term. Did hold off on bringing temperatures up too much Monday given the higher cloud potential. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Abnormally warm and dry conditions will remain in play through midweek ahead of an approaching cool front set to bring near normal temperatures back to eastern Kentucky Thursday. This will occur as a northern stream upper low translates through Ontario and breaks down ridging across the eastern CONUS as Hurricane Maria slowly migrates north off the mid-Atlantic coast. Will maintain a dry forecast at this time as the upper low lifts north and shears out with little in the way if any surface convergence along the front as it passes late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will enter eastern Kentucky later Friday into Friday night ahead of a ~1030 mb surface ridge. Currently expecting dry conditions to continue into and through the weekend without any appreciable moisture return behind the previous system. Additionally, the positively tilted nature of the second trough will likely keep the bulk of any precipitation east of the Commonwealth. Fall-like temperatures will begin to take hold as lows begin to fall into the 40s, including a few valleys in the low 40s by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday only look to warm into the mid-upper 60s before rebounding a few degrees Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 The VFR conditions will continue to be the story for most sites through the TAF period. We have seen a few CU pop up across the Lake Cumberland region and therefore did add few at 3 kft. However, Don`t think the coverage will be enough to add MVFR in the TAF sites of SME/LOZ. There will be the potential for fog again tonight, but this be confined to the deeper valley locales once again. Did opt to put some MVFR fog at SJS given the better placement surface high nosing. The surface high will also keep winds light through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...DJ

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