Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220759 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 259 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 259 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 A cold front is advancing southward across east Kentucky early this morning. The narrow band of precipitation along the boundary has already shifted off to the north and east with just a band of clouds now existing with the feature. As the front exits this morning, questions still surround cloud cover potential. NAM Bufr soundings still show some low cloud development. Given the upslope flow, this scenario could still play out, but as of right now, very little low clouds observed immediately behind the frontal boundary. There are some lower clouds farther back to the north (north of Cincinnati), that could filter into the area closer to daybreak. However, confidence is not high on how cloud cover will behave this morning given the tremendous clearing presently noted to our northwest. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by daybreak, and the degree of sunshine we see today will determine how to what degree we warm through the 40s for afternoon highs. More sunshine would likely yield higher values than are in the current forecast. Whatever cloud cover does develop will clear off this afternoon, with clear skies expected tonight. With the high building in across the area tonight, a cold night is anticipated with lows well into the 20s. A few upper teens may be possible in the eastern valleys. Temperature advection heading into Thanksgiving day looks very weak, so likely looking at highs in the 40s again after the very cold start. However, we should see a good deal of sunshine for Thanksgiving day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 259 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 Long term discussion will follow shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017 VFR conditions will continue over the next 3 to 4 hours...but confidence is increasing that a low deck of clouds may develop behind a departing cold front around or after 10z. Thus, will bring in some MVFR conditions around this time. Model soundings show some potential for ceilings to reach IFR, but confidence is lower in this scenario. West Winds of 5-10 knots will veer northerly overnight while diminishing below 5 knots Wednesday afternoon as clouds lift and mix out. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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