Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010005 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 705 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 704 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 BASED UPON MODEL SOUNDINGS...THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS VERY LOW. IF ANYTHING DOES MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES OF ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND WILL BE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND WILL BE WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL RESIDE. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SLEET...ALTHOUGH IF WE CAN WET BULB ENOUGH...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN. REGARDLESS...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERALL AS WE WILL REMAIN SO DRY BELOW 10KFT. FREEZING RAIN WAS REMOVED AS THE BEST PERIOD OF POPS WILL COINCIDE DURING THE TIME THAT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RAIN NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 A SHORTWAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT EJECTS QUICKLY SE INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THE LOW AND CARRY IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PULL THE DRY SLOT INTO OUR SE MORE...AND PREVENT MOISTURE FROM MOVING IN QUITE AS FAST INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS SINCE OVERNIGHT ARE CONTINUING TO BRING THE WARM NOSE FURTHER NORTH AS WELL /ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...ASSUMING ANY PRECIP IS ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. THAT BEING SAID...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS NEEDED BASED ON TEMPS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS AFTER THIS POINT TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE LINE OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 3 AND 10Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY WORK IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING OFF THE BEST QPF POTENTIAL. IT WILL ALSO QUICKLY TURN THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSITION US TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE ROADS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AT THIS POINT...AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AS WELL AS WHEN AND WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO HOWEVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A SHARP TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THAN THE GFS...SINKING ITS INFLUENCE TOWARD KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE ALSO MOVES QUICKLY TO THE COAST BY THAT EVENING LEAVING WEAKER ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE MIDWEST THAT TAKES THE FORM OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE. WITH THIS TROUGH THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH EXTRA POCKETS OF ENERGY DRIFTING BY THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY...HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING MORE REASONABLE THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTING OUR HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVAL WILL BE KEY TO OUR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. FOLLOWING A BLEND HAVE BROUGHT FREEZING TEMPS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY DAWN WITH THE REST OF THE EASTERN KENTUCKY FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MAXIMIZED OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES NEAR VIRGINIA. THE REST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOUND ON THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS THAT NIGHT. AFTER THE HIGH MOVES OUT THE NEXT ITERATION OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. THE PREFERRED ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS KEEPING ITS SNOW TOTALS TO A MINIMUM. ANOTHER HIGH FOLLOWS CLEARING OUT THE SNOW AND DRYING OUT THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AND HOLDS THERE...OVER THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE EARLY ON FOR UPSLOPE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW AND ALSO SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 704 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AFTER THIS TIME...WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY COMING ON DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...KAS

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