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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 231841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO TN AND WV. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THIS EVENING...EXPECTING STRATUS TO FORM
THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF FOG. THE TAF STATIONS WILL SEE SOME LIFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING BY 12-13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ

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