Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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831 FXUS63 KJKL 201811 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 211 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW AS CLOSE AS WESTERN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. RADAR INDICATES SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY...WITH SOME THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS AND SEVERAL AWOS AND ASOS SITES ACROSS THAT AREA ARE ALSO REPORTING RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TODAY. VALLEY FOG THAT WAS PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTH FORK OF THE KY RIVER HAS DISSIPATED PER VIS SAT IMAGERY AND AWOS OBS FROM KI35 AND K1A6. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME IN MAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. A FRESH ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED TO GET RID OF ANY MENTION OF FOG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 IR SAT SHOWING SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ALLOWED MORE MIXING OVERNIGHT...SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. ALSO A FEW MAINLY RIVER VALLEY SPOTS ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT ON A COUPLE OF AREA WEBCAMS/OBS...BUT THIS WAS WANED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BY THE MIXING. DID KEEP THE PATCHY FOG GIVEN AREA WEBCAMS/OBS AND UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STAY FAIRLY MIXED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH...SO SEEING A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. DID OPT KEEP MENTION OF VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MIXING MOST PLACES WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF ISSUES TO MENTION IS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST...HOWEVER THAT SAID MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POP CHANCES WITH GFS BEING THE WEAKEST. GIVEN THIS TREND DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE OF CHANCE. ALSO DID KEEP ALL ACTIVITY AS JUST RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE TN BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES BUT WOULD THINK WE WOULD ONLY BE LOOKING AT ISOLATED CHANCES IF THAT. OTHERWISE DID BUMP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS DOWN FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE TREND FROM THE THE GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER/GENERAL NW FLOW IN PLACE. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEARING 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR 75 AT JKL AND 77 AT LOZ. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MORNING LOWS DUE TO LOW DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE AS IT ARRIVES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL SLIP AWAY OFF THE EAST COAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS EARLY IN THE WEEK...AN OVERALL INCREASE IN POPS IS ALSO FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN BY TUESDAY AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHER POPS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KY. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FEATURES CAN BE DISCERNED IN THE FLOW ALOFT...AND IT IS QUITE A DISTANCE OUT IN TIME...SO HAVE USED A DIURNAL TREND FOR PRECIP WITH PEAK POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ATTM IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z. INITIALLY WE HAVE VCSH...AND THEN PREVAILING -SHRA AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 6Z TO 7Z...THEN A DETERIORATION INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE NEARER TO 12Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS DURING THE LAST 6 HOUR PERIOD OF FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JP

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