Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 222059 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 359 PM EST MON JAN 22 2018 Rain showers currently cover much of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with amounts of generally one tenth of an inch or less thus far. An additional round of showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder or two, is expected to arrive this evening immediately ahead of a cold front currently positioned from about Springfield, Illinois south through Jackson, Tennessee. Some partial clearing has worked into portions of western and central Kentucky, potentially helping to increase what meager instability exists. Lightning continues to be on the overall downward trend, but will have to monitor this clearing as the front makes closer approach downstream of a potent stacked low moving between Interstates 70/80 toward Illinois. Any updrafts that can sustain themselves in a high shear/low instability environment will have the potential to develop downdrafts capable of bringing 50+ mph winds within the lowest 2000 feet off the deck down toward the surface. The available instability and narrow window of any true surface rooted storms will keep this possibility limited, although gradient gusts of 35 mph or so will remain possible through the night. Showers will taper off through the night as gusty winds and cold air advection continue in wake of the front as the core of the low passes across the lower Great Lakes. Although winds will remain more west/southwesterly behind the front as opposed to northwesterly due to the lack of a strong surface ridge building in from the north, an upslope flow component to the low level flow along with a weak secondary ripple of energy will support isolated showers lingering through the day. Temperatures will primarily hold steady in the upper 30s to low 40s with cloud cover holding strong. Some of this rain will mix with and eventually transition to light snow showers as temperatures further drop late Tuesday into Wednesday. Not expecting enough moisture to allow for any impactful measurable accumulations as shallow saturation struggles to reach into the dendritic growth zone. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 359 PM EST MON JAN 22 2018 The beginning of the extended period will be the coldest part of the entire period, with a nice warm up expected from Thursday onward. Isolated snow flurries will be exiting the area from southwest to northeast on Wednesday, with the last precipitation forecast to be out of the area by early Wednesday night. After that, we should see a couple of days of warmer and dry weather on Thursday and Friday, as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region, and winds shift around to he south. Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to max out in the mid to upper 40s and mid to upper 50s respectively. The warm weather will continue on Saturday in persistent southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Another batch of rain showers will accompany this front, as it makes its way from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley`s Friday night through Sunday. The best chance for rain will be during the passage of the front across our area from late Saturday afternoon through late Sunday afternoon. Precipitation is then expected to linger across eastern Kentucky Sunday night, before finally moving out of the area by early Monday morning. Temperatures will gradually cool on Saturday and Sunday, as extensive cloud cover and precipitation move across the area. Cooler air will spill into the area behind the front on Sunday, with post frontal precipitation on tap for Sunday evening and night. Highs on Sunday are expected to top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Monday will be even cooler, with highs on that day forecast to only reach the low to mid 40s for most locations. A few snow showers may mix with the rain Sunday night. Lows should be in the 20s and 30s Wednesday and Thursday nights, with nightly minimums in the 30s and 40s expected Friday and Saturday nights. The end of the period will see closer to normal temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s for Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EST MON JAN 22 2018 Ceilings will thicken and lower this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance set to bring rain showers to all of eastern Kentucky. Thunder chances have decreased locally, with a stray lightning strike/CB possible through early evening. Initial VFR conditions will lower toward MVFR criteria this evening and early tonight along the front, prior to a possible period of low-end VFR ceilings returning overnight behind the front. A secondary wave of energy aloft combined with upslope flow will likely lower these back toward the MVFR range Tuesday morning. Winds will be gusty through much of the period, with sustained speeds of 10-20 knots gusting to near 25 knots at times, while veering south to southwesterly. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.