Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260843 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 343 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT 8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2 ECMWF RUNS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ

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