Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172351 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 651 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 651 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018 Updated to beef up sky cover in southeast Kentucky where latest Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel shows plenty of cloud cover still persisting. Latest trends looks like the cloud cover may hold on through much of the night, but the back edge is making a very slow migration to the southeast. However, its just going to take some time. Thus, will go with a sharp gradient in clouds and this will likely be reflected in temperatures staying up in the southeast, while dropping off in the northwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 502 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018 A deep trough, currently aligned along the Appalachians will shift east through the short term, with heights recovering across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered near the Arklatex region, will gradually dampen and shift to the southeast through Friday morning. For eastern Kentucky, flurries will gradually come to an end this evening, as moisture continues to shallow. Clouds will thin out, with clearing expected for the second half of the night. This will allow for another cold night across the area, with temperatures dipping to below zero for many valley locations, given the clearing and snow pack in place. Temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 30s on Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and winds backing to the southwest. Lows Thursday night will modify; however, given the linger snow pack, have still allowed for single digits in the normally colder valleys. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 502 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018 The pattern for the long term has been fairly consistent, showing discrete northern stream flow and southern stream flow. The northern stream starts with a ridge over the Great Lakes region and the southern shows a cutoff low over the ARKLATEX region. The northern flow is more stagnant, with ridging to more zonal flow, whereas the cutoff low progresses through the southern stream, located southeast of the Commonwealth towards the end of this weekend. Both of these set up fairly zonal flow through eastern KY through Sunday. However, a disturbance will make its way into the CWA by the end of the weekend and into Monday. The models are in decent agreement with the overall pattern through the weekend. However, they start to deviate with the main system of focus in terms of timing and intensity. The ECMWF is less progressive, but is more amplified with more precip forecasted. The GFS is more progressive, but is less amplified with a bit less precip at this time. Therefore, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with this main system. Looking closer to the surface, a high pressure system still looks to build in to the SW of eastern KY and progress to the east. This pattern will bring WAA into the region with southerly winds, ushering in warmer temps for the weekend. Also, the southerly winds coupled with clear skies Friday night will lead to a ridge/valley temperature split. Before the main cold front moves in to our region Monday, an inverted trough/warm front ahead of the main system will help bring some chances for precip Sunday. Overall, the warm temps during the day will keep the precip mostly rain, but there is a possibility of a rain/snow mix in the higher elevations as precipitation comes to an end Tuesday morning. After the system passes, cooler temps will be the main theme into mid- week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018 Broken MVFR stratocu will slowly scatter late this evening, with VFR conditions expected thereafter as high pressure builds into the region. Light winds are expected through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...KAS

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