Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300756 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 356 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 An upper level ridge will be in place across the region today and tonight, keeping subsidence and calm weather across the region during this time. Meanwhile, a closed upper level low will push southeast along the shores of the Hudson Bay today. This will result in upper level troughing as the low continues on into James Bay overnight, and lowering heights across the eastern US during the day Wednesday. As for sensible weather... High pressure across the region has led to clear skies and light winds early this morning. Locations that received rain yesterday have been prone to patchy dense fog overnight, as have many of the deeper river valleys. This fog will slowly dissipate through the morning hours as temperatures begin to warm. Generally clear conditions are expected through the day today under continued light NE to N flow. That being said, afternoon heating could lead to a few diurnal cumulus, and possibly an isolated shower or thunderstorm. All hi-res CAM models are pointing at the best potential for this occurring along the highest terrain in the far southeast portion of the state, so did include some isolated pops here. Under strong subsidence, temperatures will be similar to that of yesterday, nearing 90 degrees by the afternoon. Thankfully with the NE to N flow in place, this will keep some of the humidity levels down, and apparent temps will remain close to the actual temp values. Any diurnal clouds will clear out once again tonight, with valley fog formation being the only weather concern. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to near 70, similar to that of this morning. The big change will come during the day Wednesday. A surface low pressure system associated with the above mentioned upper level closed low will track southeast across Canada, pulling with it a cold front. This cold front is expected to push eastward and towards KY, reaching just north of the Ohio River by Wednesday afternoon. An interesting thing to note, however, is that the winds never turn southerly ahead of this front, instead they will shift from NE to NW along and behind the frontal passage. That being said, a lot of the convection along the frontal boundary will actually be diurnally driven, with the aid of afternoon heat/instability. Clouds really won`t start building in until just ahead of the frontal zone, along with the best convection, given the lack of moisture. Did keep some isl to sct pops in during the afternoon, though coverage may be limited to the far northern portion of the CWA (closer to the actual frontal zone), as well as in the high terrain as a result of upslope NW flow across the CWA. Overall, much of the CWA should see minimal impacts during the day Wednesday, and much of the convection should cease by Wednesday night with the loss of diurnally induced lift. Temperatures Wednesday will still manage to boost back into the upper 80s, though if cloud cover winds up being more extensive than originally thought, this may keep temps a degree or two cooler. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The long term period will offer a reprieve from the heat and humidity that has plagued the area over the past few weeks. At upper levels, a long wave trough in place over Kentucky (through the work week) will shift east, being replaced with ridging for Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a weakening cold front will drop through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. This late timing of the frontal passage along with limited instability should keep precipitation to a minimum with only a slight chance for showers or storms. A cooler and much drier air mass will then push into the area as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will fall from the upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the front beginning Thursday and lasting through the first half of the weekend. Humidity levels will also be lower and more comfortable. Temperatures and humidity start moderating back towards summer- time levels Sunday as the surface high shifts to our east and southerly flow returns. Labor Day looks to be warm and muggy with dew points in the mid 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. No precipitation is expected beyond Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Skies have cleared across eastern KY, and should remain clear through the morning before some few/sct afternoon CU develops around 4k ft. Given the rains of yesterday, and the ongoing clear/calm conditions, patchy dense fog has formed across many of the valley locations in eastern KY. While most of the TAF sites should remain fog free, KJKL did receive a good dowsing of rain yesterday and therefore may continue to see off and on fog throughout the night. As such, LIFR VIS will be possible at times into the morning, with off and on CIGs below airport mins. Can`t also rule out some brief lowering of VIS and CIGS at other airports near daybreak as fog lifts before dissipating. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the period...generally 5 knots or less. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JVM/ABE AVIATION...JMW

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