Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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084 FXUS63 KJKL 302005 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS AREA LIFTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST...A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE SOME PONDING ON ROADS ARE POSSIBLE...THE AREA IS FULLY GREENED UP AND WITH PWATS ONLY REACHING JUST BELOW THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. CONCERNING THE STRONG STORM THREAT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. IN FACT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 60S. FOR SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...ANOTHER INSTANCE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT STOUT. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...IF INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND CAN OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AREA...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE THREAT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER THE EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE AGAIN BY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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