Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281935 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Latest surface analysis shows a surface low just southwest of the forecast area, along the central KY/TN border. This surface low should continue to lift northeast through the evening and early overnight hours, spreading showers and thunderstorms across the area. Looks like these showers will be lighter overall than rainfall earlier in the day. However, still cannot rule out locally heavy rain mainly in the eastern portions of East Kentucky. Fortunately, the Bluegrass region looks to be spared from additional heavy rainfall as drier air is quickly building east towards Lexington, per latest Visible imagery. The surface low should be east of the area prior to 12Z tomorrow with showers exiting southwest to northeast during the overnight hours. Depending on rainfall coverage overnight, in conjunction with a very saturated ground, there is the potential for dense fog to develop. This will be the primary concern overnight tonight. Additional upper level waves will move through the broad trough that is situated over the area. This will allow for continued shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon through the end of the period. Though, coverage will be more scattered in nature compared to today. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s tomorrow with more sunshine in place, whereas morning lows will stay mild, around 70 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level wise a large scale trough will setup across much of the Eastern CONUS, meanwhile the upper level high will be suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to hang on through much of the period before a ridge builds back east from the Southern and Central Plains by mid to late week. Overall models are in decent agreement with the overall large scale upper level pattern. Now in terms of the surface we are looking at a pesky front to be the feature of interest at least through Tuesday. This will interact with upper level waves riding through the flow to bring chances of storms to the region. Overall best chances for pops right now will be Saturday before signals become less defined. Particularly as the quasi stationary front drops south of the region by Tuesday. The best chances after this look to be more in the far east and southern portion of the CWA. All this said for most days this will be diurnally driven convection. The temperatures will be near to slightly below average before climbing back to bit above average by the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Several rounds of heavy rainfall moving northeast through Eastern Kentucky today has led to variable conditions across the forecast area. The initial round of rainfall is now in far east KY, affecting SJS. Behind this, some breaks in the rainfall can be expected before a surface low brings more rainfall to the central and eastern portions of the area later this afternoon and evening. With these showers, can expect any heavier shower or thunderstorm that passes over a TAF site to drop conditions down to or below LIFR. Depending on the rain coverage overnight tonight, development of patchy dense fog is possible with a very moist airmass in place. Tomorrow, rain should taper off from southwest to northeast prior to dawn, with additional scattered showers and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon hours. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JVM

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