Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 071753 AAD AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL OUT NEAR THE OH RIVER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS BY IN THE FLOW. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 PM WED EVENING. A FRESH ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH GRIDS FRESHENED UP BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATION TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS MOVING NEAR THE OH RIVER AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KY. SOME OF THIS IS APPROACHING THE SOMERSET AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG EFFECTIVE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES (WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION... SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION ATTM...AND SHOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR LOZ...JKL...SJS AND SYM DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INCLUDED SEVERAL HOURS OF VCTS. IFR OR MVFR VIS AND OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR TSRA. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA OR TSRA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SATURATES...FOG AND PASSING SHRA OR TSRA SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP

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