Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251948 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. This airmass has led to isolated shower and embedded thunderstorm activity this afternoon along a weak moisture gradient. Will see these diminish into late afternoon as this gradient and subsequent low level forcing decrease. Decay of diurnal cumulus field and increasing subsidence will allow for patchy fog development tonight and Friday morning, especially in sheltered valleys. An influx of relatively drier air coupled with another generally precipitation free day should limit more widespread development. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday. An upper shortwave trough and weak cool front look to remain confined to the Ohio Valley and north as ridging holds strong locally. Best chance of any development would be off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border, but a theta-e minimum in place along with subsidence aloft should preclude mentionable chances. This will allow for a hot afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Not the best agreement amongst the extended this time around. The ECMWF was consistently drier through out the period than the GFS. The blended model data settled around a solution that features showers and storms moving into the area Saturday afternoon, and persisting Monday afternoon, with the most active periods being the afternoon and evening hours. It then appears that a ridge of high pressure will settle over the area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, bringing a brief respite from shower and storm activity. A sluggish cold front will attempt to push into the area from early Tuesday afternoon onward. This boundary may spark a few showers and storms in our far western counties on Tuesday. After that, another ridge of high pressure is progged to spread over the area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. More showers and storms are then expected to plague the area from late Tuesday night through the end of the week. With the amount of uncertainty in the model data, decided to keep only very low rain chances in the forecast, at least until the models have a better handle on things. Hot and muggy conditions are expected to persist through out the period, with highs around 90 expected from Saturday through Wednesday. The expected clouds and precipitation should allow temperatures on Thursday to not be quite as warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on that day.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, but will likely remain outside of the vicinity of any terminal. Generally, light west to southwest winds of near 5 knots this afternoon will diminish this evening. Will see speeds a little higher, in the 5-10 knot range, near SYM with a few gusts of up to near 15 knots. Attention will then turn to fog potential tonight. Subsidence moving in will promote clearing skies after the diurnal cumulus field decays. Light winds and low level moisture pooling will promote typical valley fog, but more widespread development should be hindered by an influx of relatively drier air overnight combined with a lack of precipitation near any site. Quicker clearing and persistence perhaps points to the best chance of sub-VFR conditions near LOZ/SME. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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