Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290708 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 308 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 The ridge of high pressure that has brought dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the past few days will finally break down enough to allow a few showers and storms to move across the Tennessee border and into eastern Kentucky later today. An area of low pressure passing by to the south of the area will be the trigger for any showers and storms that we see today. The first precipitation should begin moving across the TN state line and into our southern counties by late this morning. This activity will increase in coverage this afternoon, and we may see scattered showers and storms for a few hours along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. The rain should be gone by 0Z, as we lost daytime heating and low pressure moves off to our southeast. Another better shot of rain is expected on Friday, as a second better organized weather system moves out of the Tennessee valley and across portions of eastern Kentucky. The best chance of rain with this second system should be Friday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be around normal today and tomorrow, with max values in the mid to upper 80s expected today, and the lower 80s on Friday. Tonights lows will be a bit warmer as well, with minimum readings in the mid to upper 60s expected along ridges while the surrounding valleys fall into the lower 60s. Winds should be out of the south at 5 to 10mph for most locations. A few locations along and north of I-64 could see sustained winds later today of around 10mph. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Friday with a fairly active upper level pattern in place. Expect a shortwave trough to be diving southeast into the OH Valley. Southwesterly flow near the surface will bring ample moisture into the lower levels with precip chances on the increase by Friday afternoon and increased forcing as the front approaches. As the potent shortwave and increased forcing approaches, increased moisture evident by the lower 70 degree dew points entering the area by Saturday afternoon, will greatly destabilize the airmass with roughly 2000 J/KG expected. This will also be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday into Saturday evening. At this point for Saturday, based upon the model profiles, there certainly is a possibility for a few strong storms. Waning instability will mean the thunderstorm potential will dissipate with only showers expected for Saturday night into Sunday. Much lessened instability ahead of the slowed and weakened front for Sunday will allow just enough for a few thunderstorms and mainly shower activity as CAPE values will struggle to reach 500. Stout ridging nudging into the lee side of the Appalachians will keep the weakened boundary parked over the Appalachian range and a slight chance of thunderstorms for Sunday evening through Monday evening. The super blend shows a lot of agreement in this pattern with the newest run of the Euro. The final day of the extended on Tuesday seems to feature the models showing a break down in the pattern as precip chances will be pending on a strong wave undercutting the western ridge and moving into the area from the Mid MS Valley. Overall, a pretty active pattern is in store for the extended.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 VFR conditions will generally continue through early this morning. Some patchy MVFR or worse fog will likely occur once again between through 12z; however, this will be confined to the deepest river valleys. Warm and moist return flow will bring some scattered cumulus back into the area during the afternoon. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly along and west of I-75; however, given the expected limited areal coverage, will continue to not mention at LOZ and SME. Light south winds through Thursday morning will become south southwest at near 10 kts by the afternoon hours. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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