Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012034 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS GO ROUND...WITH EACH RESPECTIVE MODEL HAVING VARYING DEGREES OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...SO THOSE TWO MODELS WERE USED TO FORMULATE THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS AN DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 4Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT...MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW ON AVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RISING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ALSO CUT OFF UNTIL AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT POPS BEING INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH MEAGER MOISTURE...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS REINFORCING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO BREAKS DOWN. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A TRANSITION...AND FLOW OFF THE GULF SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. LOW POPS WERE USED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT ONLY WEAK FEATURES ALOFT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL BE ON TAP BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THE RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JKL AND SJS. LOZ AND SME COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IF THE FOG BECOME DENSE AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH AFTER 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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