Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300815 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 405 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 07z SFC analysis shows a weak cold front setting through Central Kentucky. A cluster of more organized storms were spawned by the front and affected the I-64 corridor earlier in the night with heavy rains and a potential for flooding. A few of these advisory and warning products remain in effect over Fleming and Rowan Counties, but if trends hold they should be allowed to expire on time. Elsewhere, the approach of the front has triggered more isolated cells of convection south of I-64. Expect these to gradually wane in time as they trek east through the CWA. The front, convection, and clouds are keeping the valley fog in the patchy range for most places in the western 2/3rds of east Kentucky that report obs. Skies are clear to the east, though, and some dense fog is being reported closer to the Virginia border. Meanwhile, temperature differences have mostly mixed out with the front`s arrival, except in the far southeast where they still vary from the mid 60s on ridges and near 60 degrees in the deeper valleys. Dewpoints remain in the muggy category across the CWA, generally within a degree of dry bulb temps - in the low to mid 60s. Outside of any localized shower or storm, winds are light and variable across the area at this hour. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict rather flat and slow flow at mid levels through Kentucky with just a few weakening patches of energy passing by. This should allow SFC features to dominate the weather pattern and keep things rather benign after the front passes this morning. As such, have favored the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 for weather details through Tuesday. This Memorial Day will feature some early morning showers and thunderstorms around through dawn, but likely fading out shortly thereafter as they depart to the east. Additionally, patchy dense fog can be anticipated over southeastern parts of the CWA, unless disrupted by a stray shower or storm. For this reason, will go with a pre-first period zone issuance to capture the activity through dawn. All this extra weather clears up quickly after sunrise with partly to mostly sunny skies, pleasant conditions, and somewhat lower humidity expected. Cannot completely rule out a stay storm or shower right along the Virginia border during peak heating thanks to the still lingering front, but for gridded forecast purposes have kept it dry. For tonight, patchy valley fog is the main wx concern as conditions may not be so muggy and a small ridge to valley temperature split develops. Similarly nice weather follows for Tuesday under the tenuous influence of weak high pressure. Once again used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of the weather elements with small to moderate adjustments made to temperatures at night for ridge to valley splits. Also, upped temps a notch today and Tuesday, per the recent trends. As for PoPs, ended up similarly low with all guidance, outside of the pre-dawn hours this morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 410 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A northern stream trough and low pressure system over the northern plains will make its way east towards the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. This system will drag a cold front across Kentucky Thursday but then get a bit hung up over the area on Friday. Unlike previous runs, the models now show the front pushing southeast out of the region by Saturday morning. This means that the weekend looks a bit drier than in previous runs. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be at play, however, from Wednesday afternoon through Friday night. There will be little forcing on Wednesday afternoon so thinking that any shower activity will be contained to the higher terrain. Showers and thunderstorms should be more widespread and stronger along and ahead of the cold front on Thursday. Models indicate plenty of instability in place for strong to severe storms but shear appears to be lacking. So will have to keep an eye on this as the week progresses. There will also be chances for thunderstorms on Friday mainly along the frontal boundary but positioning is still uncertain at this time. If the front does push out of the area Friday night then most locations should be dry on Saturday. Shower chances increase again on Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough over the Great Lakes deepens, sending plenty of energy into our area. Temperatures will start out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the cold frontal passage, cooler and less humid air will infiltrate East Kentucky, helping to drop high temperatures into the mid 70s for the remainder of the period. Morning lows are expected to remain mild, in the low 60s, through the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten the northern portion of the area through 09z as a weak cold front passes through. Following the front, and in some cases in the valleys ahead of it, fog will form, likely becoming dense in the deeper valleys as well as across locations that saw more significant rainfall. Have included a period of MVFR conditions for most TAF locations, generally between 09 and 13z. Once the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will return. Light and variable winds will become northerly at 5 to 10 kts on Memorial Day. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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