Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 222029 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 329 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 Current conditions across the area feature a break in the precip as much of the incoming precip has dissipated as it passed through to the north. With this, cloud cover is and will continue to be in abundance and as such, temps have been slow to warm up across the region this afternoon. Due to this, have lowered highs for today a couple of degrees. Heading into this evening and tonight, as expected, the ongoing event along the Gulf Coast has robbed alot of moisture from advecting northward into the eastern Kentucky and central Appalachian region. While some moisture will eventually make it north as the parent low pressure system begins to track up the coast, the lessened rainfall would not be as much of a concern as once thought. Thus, will reintroduce pops into the area again tonight as the low tracks up the coast after 00z. With some lift moving in as well, will keep a slight chance of thunder in the forecast but do not expect is to be very prevalent. While rainfall is not as much as previously expected, will leave the mention of brief heavy rainfall in the HWO for over the head waters as a period of banded precip may still move over eastern Kentucky but residence time will be short as the feature will exit rather quickly. This and the NAM and GFS still hint at a period of banded precip moving over this region. This as well, while WPC keeps the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall marginal risk east of Kentucky, Day 1 and 2 QPF totals still range in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch total. The last of the wrap around moisture will exit eastern Kentucky late Monday night with the bulk of the deep moisture exiting well before cold enough air moving into the region will change the rain over to a rain and snow mix on top of Black Mountain. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal temperatures. The intense storm system currently in the deep south will have progressed to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, and its last influence in the form of cloudiness and perhaps a few showers will be pulling out of the JKL forecast area during the day. Ridging at all levels will pass over Tuesday night, with warm air advection beginning before dawn. This will likely lead to ridge/valley differences for lows. An intense low pressure system heading northeast toward the Great Lakes will bring a tightening pressure gradient locally, which could bring rising temperatures by dawn on Wednesday, even in many valleys. One more mild day will occur on Wednesday, ahead of the system`s cold front. That cold front will arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. Only modest moisture return is expected before the front arrives, and little or no precipitation is expected with fropa. Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for clouds and when it`s cold enough, flurries and snow showers. There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft. Trying to time these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves passing through the large scale trough. One peak is on Thursday, and another on Sunday. On Thursday, temps will still could be warm enough for rain or rain mixed with snow. However, any precip in the remainder of the period should be snow.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 A few bands of rainfall will continue to push north through eastern Kentucky as a low pressure winds up off the southeast CONUS and moves up the east coast. This will mean heavier showers later this afternoon and into tonight moving into the area. This will drop cigs and vis at all the TAF sites through tonight. Will expect field minimums at all the sites by tomorrow morning. Also, a rumble of thunder within the stronger bands can not be ruled out as well. IFR and below conditions can be expected to end the TAF period. Winds will be light through much of the period before increasing out of the north by the end of the TAF period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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