Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271104 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 704 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 704 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 Tweaked the forecast slightly to better account for this mornings cloud cover and lingering rain showers. The new forecast will reflect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with rain showers linger north of the Mountain Parkway through 12Z or so this morning. Once the rain is gone the rest of the day will feature mostly clear skies, light winds, and below normal temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 A few rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky through around dawn this morning. The showers should be out of the area by 12Z. The latest runs of the NAM12, GFS, and HRRR models, along with the latest MOS data, all support this scenario, so the forecast was modified accordingly to reflect this. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning, with the clouds expected to gradually scatter out and move out of the area by late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, near calm winds, and valley fog will be on tap for late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap for Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to run well below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated. We should see a return to closer to normal temperatures on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Highs on Wednesday should be able to climb into the lower 80s for most locations. With clear and calm conditions expected tonight, we may see some valleys fall into the upper 40s, while the surrounding ridges drop into the lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 405 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 A relatively dry air mass will still be in place at the start of the period. However, surface high pressure will be to our east, and flow around it will have advection of warm and moist air underway. With mainly clear skies, this will promote ridge/valley low temperature differences for at least the first couple of nights. The increasing moisture will eventually lead to more clouds and the possibility of precip. It begins with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Up until that point the flow aloft will be weak and zonal. An upper low dropping southeast toward the Great Lakes will cause some buckling, with the westerlies dropping southward late in the week. This allows a weakening cold front to drop to the Ohio Valley over the weekend, presenting our best chance of rain on Saturday. The upper low and trough lift out to the northeast late in the weekend, and the surface front loses momentum and definition. Even though no significant change in air mass is expected, the probability of rain will drop off with the departure of the upper level system at the start of the new week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites through the end of the period. SYM is still having issues with its observations, so AMD NOT SKED is still in effect there. A few rain showers may affect SJS early this morning. After 12 or 13Z any remaining rain showers should have dissipated or moved out of the area. Winds should be light and variable through out the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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