Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110313 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1013 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1013 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Temperature fall has slowed down a bit over the past few hours with some thicker mid clouds pushing over. A few locations have dipped into the low to mid 20s. Would expect clouds to thin a bit over the second half of the night allowing temperatures to dip into the teens in a few valley locations. With the slower fall over the past few hours, have opted to bring temperatures back up a bit, especially in the far eastern valleys. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 With temperatures already approaching their overnight lows, had to do a quick update to lower temperatures across the board by 5 to 6 degrees. Eastern valleys will likely make it into the mid teens. There are some mid clouds, but they should generally stay along or north of I-64, limiting the impacts for most of the area. Also tweaked dewpoints into the day Sunday to be much lower until we can get some better return flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 20z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over Kentucky with mostly sunny skies now in place along with light winds. This has helped our area recover from the chilly start this morning, but still only made it to the lower 30s for most spots by mid afternoon. Dewpoints, meanwhile, have held in the teens with even some values mixing down to near 10 degrees across the south. Winds have been, and remain, light across the area this afternoon. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict fast and zonal flow through the breadth of the nation. This will carry, mainly weak, packets of energy through the region until Sunday evening. At this time, amplification to the longwave pattern associated with a trough moving through the Northern Plains. As this happens, more energy will start to dive into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley along and ahead of the 5h trough axis. Only minor differences are noted among the models with these key features so a blended solution looks good. Did favor the solution from the higher resolution models for the near term portion of the forecast. Sensible weather will feature a night of increasing and thickening high clouds, but still likely not thick enough to prevent a decent ridge to valley difference from showing up. Have added this distinction into the T grids through the night. The high will move off to the east on Sunday with low pressure progressing into the Upper Midwest and a cold front crossing the Mississippi River. Clouds will lower through the day as temperatures warm up on southwest winds. This will scour out all the sub freezing air fairly early in the day before any risk of pcpn moves in late in from the northwest. The cold front pushes into the state Sunday night with a slug of soaking rain showers expected to cross the CWA through the night propping temperatures up into the low to mid 40s most places - keeping everything liquid. Only late in the night will CAA start to kick in for the northwest parts of the area with readings starting to fall toward 40 degrees there by dawn Monday. Started with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for the grids through the short term with significant temperature adjustments tonight for the ridge to valley differences. Also adjusted the PoPs up by about 10 percent during the fropa Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 405 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 The period begins with precip moving out of the region through the day on Monday. This as a cold front and upper level feature progress east out of the region. High pressure is poised to build into the region by Monday evening but the region will remain under some clouds with low stratus possible based on the latest sounding data. There is a hint of a southern disturbance getting close enough to add some slight POPs in the far south, however this will be fighting with a stronger surface high that will begin build SE. Overall support is low with the ECMWF being the only advertiser at this stage and we begin to see more inconsistencies as we move forward into the rest of the forecast. The next chance of seeing precip will be Wednesday into Wednesday night and this is where we see more differences. That said the models have continued to go back and forth on this system, but the GFS has come in drier this run. Overall keep best POPs in the east and looks like fairly low amounts given the speed of this clipper feature. After this feature we see surface high pressure once again build into the region and consequently cold temperatures. Highs on Thu struggle to make it above freezing area wide and most seeing teens come Wed and Thu night. This surface high progresses quickly east by Friday and again we begin to see issues with timing on the next system. The ECMWF is the faster solution and for now given the uncertainty will stick with the blend. That said there is a chance of more snow and mixed precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning if some of the current blend remains the same, but the uncertainty at this point is high of the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Light winds and VFR conditions will be seen through Sunday evening. We will have some high/mid clouds working across the area through the period, but cig heights should stay at or above 12kft. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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