Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271900 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Hot and muggy weather will continue across eastern Kentucky through the weekend, as the ridge of high pressure that is currently parked over the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid Mississippi valley regions, continues to exert some influence on the region. A few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon in the humid and unstable air mass that is in place. These should remain confined to an area generally along and west of the I-75 corridor. A few showers and storms will also be present along and north of the western end of the Mountain Parkway in our forecast area through sunset this evening. Any showers and storms that form today should dissipate quickly once the sun goes down. Another round of showers and storms is expected on Sunday, as the aforementioned ridge weakens and allows height falls to occur over the region. The persistently warm and humid air mass will still be in place, however, and with the ridge weakening, conditions will be bit more favorable for shower and storm formation on Sunday. That being said, still only went with 20-40 percent chance of rain across the area on Sunday, with the best time for rain being during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain should taper off Sunday night, with only a few showers or storms ongoing along and north of I-64 by early Monday morning. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be very warm and uncomfortable yet again, with min readings around 70 expected. Highs on Sunday should easily reach 90 or slightly above for the entire area once again. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period, and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great Lakes.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through around 5Z tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds also on tap. More fog is expected to begin forming between 6 and 8Z for most of the area. Due to dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon, the fog should not be quite as extensive tonight, with less dense fog expected as well. The best time for fog will be between 8 and 12Z tomorrow, with the most extensive fog expected at SME and SJS. Mostly MVFR conditions will be expected, with a few spots perhaps seeing IFR conditions in the worst of the fog. Any fog that does form should be gone by between 13 and 14Z on Sunday. Isolated showers and storms will also be possible today along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. The coverage should be minimal enough to make mention of thunder in the TAFs unwarranted at this time. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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