Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260148 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 948 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL LATER INTO THE NIGHT WHERE SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS AND ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWERED THE TEMPS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED AN UPDATED ZFP AS CONVECTION WANES LATER TONIGHT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OT THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 LONG LIVED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTH TO THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGIME AND ITS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. ONCE ACTIVITY PEAKS THIS EVENING...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE PRECIP MOST PLACES TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN ENHANCE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT. AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IN PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THIS...SOME TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTION DIES OFF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AND HAVE PUT SOME VCTS IN THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT WITH THE TIMING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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