Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271035 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 635 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 635 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Patchy dense fog remains in place across the southern and eastern portions of the region this morning with some locations down to a quarter of a mile visibility. This fog should dissipate around 13Z this morning, leading to a pleasant fall day. In terms of the grids, did a quick refresh to the hourly temps and sky cover and sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The large upper level low currently over the western Great Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky throughout the short term. Energy from this low is expected to pivot into our area Wednesday afternoon, providing enough lift for at least a chance for showers. Decided not to include mention of thunder at this time due to model soundings showing very limited instability. In terms of sensible weather, today will finally feel like autumn with a much drier airmass in place and seasonal temperatures in the lower 70s. Patchy dense fog has developed early this morning but should dissipate/lift around 13Z. Once the fog dissipates, skies should remain mostly clear throughout the day as the upper low stays far enough to our north. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s before rebounding into the low and mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon. As the upper low approaches tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover and shower chances will increase, with shower chances peaking in the afternoon and evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The models remain in decent agreement with the amplified and blocky long wave pattern to dominate across the CONUS through the majority of the period. An upper level low will drop south out of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions through Friday, before gradually shifting back to the north and diminishing through early next week. This will result in below normal temperatures and periods of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky through the first part of the weekend. Dry weather and a gradual warm up will then ensue as the low pulls away, and 500 mb heights recover. The blended guidance came in very reasonable with the rain chances through the period, so stuck close to the given values. Sky cover did look on the high side, so dialed this back somewhat. Also allowed for slightly warmer lows at night, particularly when the system is closest to our area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Main concern during the early morning period is the potential for fog development. Current thinking is that SME will be the main TAF site to be affected due to earlier clearing and temperatures already at saturation. Some fog is already being seen in the IR fog channel just south of our border in TN and expect this to spread northward as the clouds continue to push off to the east. That being said, have introduced MVFR fog at SME but kept VFR fog at LOZ and JKL through dawn. There is the potential for lower VIS across the area but confidence remains marginal at this time. The fog should lift by 13-14Z this morning and VFR conditions will prevail with mainly clear skies. Winds will be light and variable around 5 knots or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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