Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161950 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 350 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS A COOL AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY WHILE THEY ARE HOLDING TIGHT OVER JKL AND POINTS NORTH. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POCKETS OF LIGHT PCPN KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM A CHILLY 60 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS HAVE SHOWN UP TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE ADDING TO THE CHILL THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH EAST KENTUCKY STILL IN THE GRIP OF A BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE HEALTHIEST OF THESE ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A KINK IN THE FLOW LINES. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES ALOFT HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND WHILE FAVORING THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE DRYING UP BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...RESTRICTING VISIBILITY IN MOST PLACES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BY DAWN. HAVE HIT THIS HARD IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO THE HWO. WILL LEAVE IT TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE CLEARING... ADVECTION...AND PRELIMINARY FOG PRODUCTION FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY OR SPS. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY BRING IN MORE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. IN FACT...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORE SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AS THIS WAVE MOVES BY ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THOUGH...HAVE KEPT THE POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONING. THE WAKE OF THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE FORMING LATE AT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDER OF THE NIGHTS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE IF THE CLEARING AND FOG ALLOW IT. AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE LOADING THE SUPER BLEND THEREAFTER. DID NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP HIGHER THAN MOS IN THE NEAR TERM AND ALSO FOR LATER WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE KEPT THE POPS LOW SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 THURSDAY MORNING STARTS THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. STRONG TROUGHING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE...HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS KY...WITH SRLY WINDS PULLING UP WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...REACHING MORE SEASONABLE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN KY REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LEFT...AS WELL AS VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR PWAT VALUES. MODELS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NEIGHBORING OFFICES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FACT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME THUNDER. AS SUCH...KEPT IN ONLY SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE LINE MAKES IT THROUGH KY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT SEEMS THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND THEREFORE CHANCES WERE INCLUDED. TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN OVERHEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...AS STRONG W/NW WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE BY THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MANY OF THE TAF SITES EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE DAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ANY CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE FLEETING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE BROUGHT ALL THE SITES DOWN FOR THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

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