Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281802 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 202 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Have received a few reports of flooding in the Bluegrass region this morning prompting a flash flood warning to be issued. Fortunately, the heaviest axis of rain has pushed eastward and per recent IR imagery, has weakened slightly. The Bath county mesonet reported about 1.5" in two hours where about 1.0" fell in 30 minutes time. This affirms that any storm or shower is capable of producing high rainfall rates. The next area of rainfall looks like its enhancing just southwest of the area, per recent satellite imagery, and is expected to lift across the central and southern portions of the area. In terms of the grids, did a quick refresh to the hourlies and sent updates to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 948 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Recent radar trends have shown a slow eastward push to the rainfall swath so backed off on some of the pops in the far east for the next couple of hours. In the Bluegrass region, some training of moderate to heavy rain is occurring so this will be the primary area to watch this morning for potential flooding. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with several rounds of rain expected today. Additionally, there is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather in the far east this afternoon but this might hinge on how much cloud cover they experience throughout the morning. UPDATE Issued at 759 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations. Recent HRRR runs generally support the ongoing forecast so no pop adjustments have been made so far, though they could be a touch fast over the next hour or two. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A warm front continues to lift north and generally resides near the OH then southeast into WV. A warm and moist airmass is in place across the region with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. PW is analyzed around 2 inches across the northern half of the area with 1.75 to 2 inches across the southwest part of the area. A mid and upper level low is meandering up the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley. Isentropic lift in advance of this system is producing areas of convection across the Appalachians and OH Valley at this time. At present, nearly all of Eastern KY is rain free. However, patchy fog has developed in the wake of afternoon and evening convection. Mid and high level clouds however have kept the fog in check so far. To the east of the mid and upper low is a ridge of high pressure centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over Western Conus. A closed low is over northern Quebec with disturbances rotating down into the northern Plains and Great Lakes as they move around the Western Conus ridge. The mid and upper low/trough nearing the Lower OH Valley will move into the Central Appalachian region this evening with this system interacting with another weak shortwave that is currently nearing the Kansas City, MO area. This system will have a moist airmass in place to work with and with nearly stalled a frontal zone in place just north of the region, heavy rain remains a concern from the convection. PW is expected to climb over 2 inches today across most of this morning, with the possible exception of the VA border counties where it might not reach those levels until late this afternoon or this evening. PW is expected to remain at 2 inches or greater along and north of the Mountain parkway the longest, peaking near or a bit above 2.25 inches near the I 64 corridor today. PW though should begin to decrease this evening into the overnight as the mid level wave departs. With a slightly drier airmass and the potential for more solar insolation this morning into early afternoon, locations south of the Mountain Parkway corridor and east of Interstate 75 will have the highest chances of stronger to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts being the greatest threat. However, any of the strongest storms will be able to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph due to precipitation loading. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 12Z (8 AM on Friday) although the threat should diminish by late Thursday evening across much of the area. Convection may linger longer in the higher terrain near the VA border. The sfc frontal zone should move little through the period, perhaps moving a bit further southeast. A broad trough/weakness is expected to extend from the Great Lakes down into the MS Valley region to end the period in between the two ridge centers. This favors unsettled weather for Friday with a diurnal peak in convection with weak disturbances interacting with a lingering moist, but not quite as moist airmass, with PW generally averaging in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Considerable cloud cover and cooler 850 mb temps compared to earlier in the week should lead to highs closer to climatological normals for late July during the short term period. Overnight lows will be mild with the airmass remaining moist, however. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Based on the latest model data, the weather will remain unsettled through out the extended period, with almost daily chances of showers and storms across the area. A stalled out frontal boundary, along with a series of disturbances aloft moving along it, will be the weather makers for days 3 through 7. The best chance for rain in the extended looks to be on Saturday as a front moves across the area. This boundary then looks like it will get hung up in the Tennessee Valley, but will be close enough to our area to spark additional showers and storms for several days across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s each day, and bottom out in the upper 60s to around 70 each night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Several rounds of heavy rainfall moving northeast through Eastern Kentucky today has led to variable conditions across the forecast area. The initial round of rainfall is now in far east KY, affecting SJS. Behind this, some breaks in the rainfall can be expected before a surface low brings more rainfall to the central and eastern portions of the area later this afternoon and evening. With these showers, can expect any heavier shower or thunderstorm that passes over a TAF site to drop conditions down to or below LIFR. Depending on the rain coverage overnight tonight, development of patchy dense fog is possible with a very moist airmass in place. Tomorrow, rain should taper off from southwest to northeast prior to dawn, with additional scattered showers and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon hours. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JVM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.