Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060036 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING TONIGHT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO RECEDE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10- 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ

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