Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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330 FXUS63 KJKL 281223 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 823 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 759 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations. Recent HRRR runs generally support the ongoing forecast so no pop adjustments have been made so far, though they could be a touch fast over the next hour or two.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A warm front continues to lift north and generally resides near the OH then southeast into WV. A warm and moist airmass is in place across the region with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. PW is analyzed around 2 inches across the northern half of the area with 1.75 to 2 inches across the southwest part of the area. A mid and upper level low is meandering up the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley. Isentropic lift in advance of this system is producing areas of convection across the Appalachians and OH Valley at this time. At present, nearly all of Eastern KY is rain free. However, patchy fog has developed in the wake of afternoon and evening convection. Mid and high level clouds however have kept the fog in check so far. To the east of the mid and upper low is a ridge of high pressure centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over Western Conus. A closed low is over northern Quebec with disturbances rotating down into the northern Plains and Great Lakes as they move around the Western Conus ridge. The mid and upper low/trough nearing the Lower OH Valley will move into the Central Appalachian region this evening with this system interacting with another weak shortwave that is currently nearing the Kansas City, MO area. This system will have a moist airmass in place to work with and with nearly stalled a frontal zone in place just north of the region, heavy rain remains a concern from the convection. PW is expected to climb over 2 inches today across most of this morning, with the possible exception of the VA border counties where it might not reach those levels until late this afternoon or this evening. PW is expected to remain at 2 inches or greater along and north of the Mountain parkway the longest, peaking near or a bit above 2.25 inches near the I 64 corridor today. PW though should begin to decrease this evening into the overnight as the mid level wave departs. With a slightly drier airmass and the potential for more solar insolation this morning into early afternoon, locations south of the Mountain Parkway corridor and east of Interstate 75 will have the highest chances of stronger to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts being the greatest threat. However, any of the strongest storms will be able to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph due to precipitation loading. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 12Z (8 AM on Friday) although the threat should diminish by late Thursday evening across much of the area. Convection may linger longer in the higher terrain near the VA border. The sfc frontal zone should move little through the period, perhaps moving a bit further southeast. A broad trough/weakness is expected to extend from the Great Lakes down into the MS Valley region to end the period in between the two ridge centers. This favors unsettled weather for Friday with a diurnal peak in convection with weak disturbances interacting with a lingering moist, but not quite as moist airmass, with PW generally averaging in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Considerable cloud cover and cooler 850 mb temps compared to earlier in the week should lead to highs closer to climatological normals for late July during the short term period. Overnight lows will be mild with the airmass remaining moist, however. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Based on the latest model data, the weather will remain unsettled through out the extended period, with almost daily chances of showers and storms across the area. A stalled out frontal boundary, along with a series of disturbances aloft moving along it, will be the weather makers for days 3 through 7. The best chance for rain in the extended looks to be on Saturday as a front moves across the area. This boundary then looks like it will get hung up in the Tennessee Valley, but will be close enough to our area to spark additional showers and storms for several days across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s each day, and bottom out in the upper 60s to around 70 each night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak disturbance is nearing the lower OH Valley and another upstream over MO should combine to bring convection across the area through about 6Z or so. The atmosphere is moist as well so MVFR vis and or CIGS have been kept through at least the 20Z to 0Z period, with further reductions possible thereafter at all sites. If partial clearing occurs late, fog could become an issue by the 6Z to 12Z period. There will likely be varying conditions and some at least brief VFR in between showers and storms cannot be ruled out between 12Z and 18Z at most sites, with IFR or even below airport mins for a time in the stronger showers and storms.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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