Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220850 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018 The morning surface analysis indicates a warm front to our north from the Lower Great Lakes into the Midwest. An area of low pressure is centered near Kansas City with a cold front extending southward into the Southern Plains. The water vapor imagery reveals a closed upper level low is located across the Central Plains. These features will be of interest later this afternoon into this evening. This morning we are dealing with some mid level clouds streaming out ahead of this system. This mid level deck will lift through the morning and lead to a period of just high clouds late this morning into the early afternoon. This will be aided by downslope flow ahead of the approaching cold front. The previously mentioned upper level low will become vertically stacked as it moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. A lead cold front will move eastward and the model guidance still shows some disagreement on the timing on the precipitation this morning. Overall took a compromise between the guidance products, and did back away some from 100 POP given some guidance shows weakening of the precipitation as it moves east. Despite this, there remains the potential for gusty winds ahead and behind this front. It looks like winds of 25 to 30 with isolated gusts up to 35 mph are possible this afternoon and evening. Given the more isolated nature of the 35 mph gusts will hold off on a lake wind advisory for the Lake Cumberland, Laurel River Lake and Cave Run Lake regions at this time. The other hazard this afternoon and evening will be the chance for thunderstorms. The wind shear will be unidirectional but quite strong, However, the lack of more substantial instability will keep these storms tame. The rest of tonight into Tuesday will be in the process of a slight cool down. Matter of fact, tonight will probably be a midnight high temperature for Tuesday and falling temperatures there after given the lingering trough and clouds. We never get into a stronger northwest flow and remain more westerly, so the temperature drop will not be the extreme drops that we have seen in the past few weeks. There will be some left over moisture and this will translate into showers Tuesday mainly in the far east and southeast. There remains some question on if we will see any snow mix into these showers, as the model soundings conflict on how much ice will be present. Given this did limit the mix of snow showers in the higher terrain in the southeast and otherwise kept this all rain showers for now. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 350 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018 Available shortly...
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018 The sites will remain VFR through this afternoon. An upper level low will swing into the Midwest tonight, and a strong south to southwest low level jet will develop ahead of this strengthening system. This will bring the potential for LLWS the rest of the night into the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, a cold front is set to swing through the region today into tonight and this will bring showers and thunderstorms across the region. The guidance suggests this will at least produce MVFR conditions in the showers and thunderstorms and in the wake of the cold front. This doesn`t seem unreasonable with some sites likely having the potential to see lower categories in heavier showers. The winds at the surface will be gusty this afternoon and evening out of the south and southwest at 30 to 35 mph at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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