Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280820 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES...DRIER NORTHERLY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THIS NORTHERLY AIR WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NE AND ERLY SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED OR SCT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. AND GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...EXPECT THE IMPACTS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE POINTING AT YET ANOTHER BATCH OF ISL TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE VERY LIGHT AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST...SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS WITH THESE SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THURSDAY...REMAINING IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A PERSISTENT TROUGH REIGNS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SOME TEMPORARY DAMPENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNALLY INFLUENCED CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM THE 70S MID-WEEK...TO THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 TSRA HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KY AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN KY AT THE MOMENT...WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT PREVAILING WINDS...SHOULD ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR FOG AT MOST TAF SITES. KJKL IS CURRENTLY THE EXCEPTION...AS THIS SITE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS JUST RECENTLY AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS TURNED INTO GROUND FOG NEAR THE AIRPORT. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW LONG THE FOG WILL STICK AROUND...BUT EXPECT IT TO MIX OUT AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...SKIES WILL BE SCT TO BKN VFR WITH SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KLOZ...KSME...AND POSSIBLY KSJS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. AND WHILE SOME LIGHT BR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT...IT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CHOSE TO LEAVE BOTH THE MENTION OF RAIN AND FOG OUT FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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