Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260727 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 215 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 have already updated sky and wind through the next three forecast periods based on new 00z model runs. otherwise, just made updates based on blending in the latest obs. this did entail raising low temps a bit for this morning in our se counties, where it has been very slow to cool off during the night. UPDATE Issued at 1048 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Lack of instability and lingering subsidence has effectively brought an end to showers across the area this evening with the exception of a few light showers in the southwest. Otherwise, the shower activity has ended at least for the beginning of the night. Later tonight towards dawn, a weak disturbance combined with a weak low level jet may be enough for a few showers to pop up later tonight. Models are not handling this well and lack of instability bring up a few questions tonight. For now, went with slight chance of showers and changed from coverage to probability. A new zfp has been sent. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Current conditions across the area feature scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking through eastern Kentucky. Most of this activity is on the wane as surface high pressure still just to the west is enough to break down this activity as it moves into the area. Have increased pops to the southwest as the incoming area should make it into the southwest counties before dissipating. With this...there should be a period later tonight with no activity before another wave moves into the area just before dawn. Updated the forecast and sent out a new zfp. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 329 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A cluster of showers, originating off the Cumberland Plateau and currently approaching the I-75 corridor, will continue to track northeast this afternoon. Surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG has developed and led to an afternoon cumulus field amid a steady stream of increasing mid to high clouds moving in from the west ahead of a disturbance stretching from southeast Saskatchewan through the Mississippi Valley. May see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bluegrass region, as this energy propagates toward eastern Kentucky. Further development will be possible across the higher terrain as additional low level forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Will see this pulse-type activity quickly dissipate as poor deep layer shear will lead to cold pools quickly overwhelming updrafts. Lingering shower activity will be possible through the night as southwest flow aloft will be characterized by microscale shortwave impulses. Instability looks to be low enough to negate thunder mention with a diurnally cooling boundary layer. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will only allow overnight lows to fall into a similar range as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains in place. Despite mid to high cloud cover persisting, patchy valley fog will be possible given near-surface saturation. A similar story continues for Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in a weakly forced environment. Highs rising into the mid 80s will again provide ample enough instability for pulse storms in a weakly-sheared environment. Following any lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in a moist environment. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures, muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 All was quiet at the start of the period, with mainly vfr conditions. There was some localized mvfr due to light fog. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over central ky and middle tn. Short range models have this area of precip developing further east overnight. This is because of a shortwave trough moving east, coupled with isentropic lift. Will expect coverage to remain spotty, and have only used vcsh in the tafs during the morning hours. Localized sub-vfr conditions will occur because of fog and showers through the morning, but vfr should be predominant. Can`t rule out additional showers/thunderstorms developing with the heat of the day, but the probability looks low at any given location, and it hasn`t been included in tafs. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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