Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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535 FXUS63 KJKL 291936 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The models are in good agreement with cyclonic flow aloft and continuing to suppress the upper level ridging to the south. This will interact with the nearby boundary to bring chances of storms through the short term period. This afternoon WSR-88D showing showers and thunderstorms are moving east mostly across areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway. Some of these storms will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds. These storms are expected to spread east into the early evening hours. HRRR has a decent handle on the main area of precip across the southern half of the CWA. Therefore blended pops in that direction given the reasonable timing. It does look like much of the convection will be diurnally driven, but given the pattern keep isolated pops through the night. Another issue that remains in question tonight will be fog and how much we see. Right now will go with at least patchy fog in the valleys but cloud cover could help mitigate some locales. Then another stormy day on tap for Saturday, as higher PWATS remain in place and quasi stationary boundary remains near. Right now once again going scattered coverage in the afternoon hours. Not really favoring any certain model at this point and went toward a blend approach at this point given the scattered coverage. Once again expecting more in the way of diurnally driven activity and therefore lessen the coverage once again on Saturday evening. Temperatures through the short term period will run near normal. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Available shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 There is a mix of VFR and MVFR to start the period. WSR-88D radar shows that showers and storms have expended across the region as expected. This will make TAFs difficult given the scattered nature and uncertainty attached. Right now will add a TEMPO group to SME/LOZ where activity will be more prevalent. The storms will be mostly diurnally driven and we should see activity wane by this evening. Then we will see potential for fog/stratus issues overnight into the AM hours once again. The question is to what extent given cloud cover and therefore kept most MVFR. Did opt to go lower at SME/LOZ where more storm activity is expected. Light winds will be the story, but any storm could produce a brief higher gust. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ

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