Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 312115 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 415 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 A SHORTWAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT EJECTS QUICKLY SE INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THE LOW AND CARRY IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PULL THE DRY SLOT INTO OUR SE MORE...AND PREVENT MOISTURE FROM MOVING IN QUITE AS FAST INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS SINCE OVERNIGHT ARE CONTINUING TO BRING THE WARM NOSE FURTHER NORTH AS WELL /ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...ASSUMING ANY PRECIP IS ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. THAT BEING SAID...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS NEEDED BASED ON TEMPS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS AFTER THIS POINT TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE LINE OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 3 AND 10Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY WORK IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING OFF THE BEST QPF POTENTIAL. IT WILL ALSO QUICKLY TURN THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSITION US TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE ROADS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AT THIS POINT...AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AS WELL AS WHEN AND WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO HOWEVER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. SUNDAY NIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ISSUES IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE EXITING THE EAST COAST AS A 120 KNOT JET STREAK HEADING UP THE EAST COAST ALL THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EXIT OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY 00Z. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SEEMS TO BE SET TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS NOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO BE JUST AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN BEGINNING IN EARNEST AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GOOD PORTION OF THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE EXITS QUITE EARLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THIS WOULD EXPECT A LESSER PERIOD OF SNOW BUT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL SET UP FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE MOST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN FACT...DESPITE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE...STILL SOME GOOD LIFT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH LESS THAN AN INCH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS BUT UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 2000 FEET. IN A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...A PASSING SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DAYS BREAK FROM WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE GREATLY. THE GFS BRINGS A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND CREATING A PHASING SCENARIO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY PRECIP OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FINALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE COAST. BUT THE EURO KEEPS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND EXITS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WHILE THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET ONLY DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL ALL BLEND GOES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND ONLY GIVES CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS PRETTY DRY...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MODEL ALL BLEND SOLUTION FOR CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TREND OF THE EURO AND GFS LEAVE LITTLE ROOM FOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES AND LACK OF AGREEMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO SEE IF THIS SET UP WILL POSE A THREAT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THIS ONLY GETS A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE HWO.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FEET AGL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z AND CONTINUE INTO 18Z...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 5 KTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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