Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS63 KJKL 252106
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
406 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017
A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across
eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday
evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent
cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows
will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid
20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud
cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday.
Highs tomorrow should rise to around 50 degrees at most locations.
Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal
values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the
south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by
Monday morning, which will be quite a bit warmer than tonights
A mix of rain and snow showers is then expected to move into the
area from the west late tonight into early Monday morning, as
moisture associated with our next weather system begins to
interact with the cold air mass that will still be in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017
An unsettled pattern will be in place through much of the upcoming
week as cyclonic flow across central and eastern Canada sends
periodic impulses of energy into the U.S. The first of these will
be in the form of a dampening shortwave trough sliding across the
Midwest and Ohio Valley early Monday. Moisture advection will have
a difficult time returning as far north as Kentucky given the
recent subsidence and dry air in place during the latter half of
the weekend, as evidenced by lingering low level dry air in
forecast sounding profiles along with southeast downslope surface
Much better rain chances will materialize early Tuesday as a warm
front lifts north east of a surface low ejecting into the central
Plains and Midwest, downstream of an upper trough traversing the
Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon, promoting increasing low level
instability and thus some thunderstorm activity. Height falls will
continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as deep layer shear increases
to on the order of 60-70 knots ahead of an approaching cold front.
Instability may prove to be a limiting factor in storm
intensity/coverage, given the exact timing of the front and
ongoing cold pool strength/depth following Tuesday`s precipitation.
Nonetheless, a double-barrel surface low may further foster additional
lift for ascent.
A sharp cooldown will ensue late Wednesday into Thursday with
temperatures very likely falling below normal for late week. A few
snowflakes may fly into early Thursday and again early Friday as a
potential clipper system grazes the Great Lakes, but currently not
expecting any impactful accumulation. A warming and drying trend
look to occur into next weekend at this point as backing flow
aloft takes shape across the region.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017
Initial lower end of VFR Cigs are expected to start the period
as drier air moves into the area and mixing occurs through late
this afternoon. All locations are expected to remain at VFR
through the end of the TAF period. A few sprinkles and perhaps a
flurry cannot be ruled out through around 0Z this evening. Winds
should remain generally west at 10 to 15KT with some gusts as
high as 20 to 25 mph. The winds should begin to diminish once the
sun goes down and an upper level low pressure pulls of to our
east. Current BKN to OVC cloud is expected to persist through 22
or 23Z today, before scattering out during the evening hours. We
should see clear to mostly clear skies at all TAF sites by between
6 and 10Z Sunday.