Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250913 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 513 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain on control of the weather through the short term. A mid to upper level ridge is centered over the southeastern CONUS this morning, spreading its influence across Eastern Kentucky. Mid and upper level drying is also apparent in current WV/IR imagery moving across our region. Given the anticyclonic upper level flow, the ongoing convection across the Ohio Valley should stay to our north and east as it rotates around the high this morning. Models hint at some shower activity perhaps grazing our northeastern counties (from the ongoing convection) during the morning hours as well as some terrain-induced showers/storms along the Virginia border in the afternoon. However, with most of the column staying dry, the shower activity shouldn`t amount to much today. The best chance, if any, will be over the high terrain in western Virginia. High pressure becomes centered over Eastern Kentucky late tonight and remains over us through Friday. This will likely keep any shower activity out of the area and have adjusted pops to reflect this. Today and Friday will be muggy and warm with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. During the afternoon hours, heat indices are expected to reach the mid and upper 90s so take precaution if spending time outdoors. Tonight will also be unseasonably warm with lows staying in the low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 513 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A stagnant pattern is likely to be in place. Upper level ridging will be present over the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, with a hot and fairly moist surface air mass in place. Daytime heating could provide enough instability for showers/thunderstorms to boil up at times. However, weak flow aloft and a lack of forcing features will keep convection disorganized. Early in the period, during the weekend, the most probable place for initial development would be by the VA and TN borders due to heating of elevated terrain. Later in the period, the upper level ridge should weaken and development would also be favored further north around the periphery of the high. Another possible player is a tropical system which could move into the southeast CONUS by the end of the period. The ECMWF is much stronger with this than the GFS, but there is something present in both models. Its influence is currently shown to be to our southeast, but confidence in its occurrence and location are low.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as an upper level ridge holds steady across Kentucky. There may be some valley fog development later this morning. However, with crossover temperatures in the 60s, do not think that much fog will make it into the TAF sites. There is the potential for some brief MVFR fog at either LOZ or SME but decided not to include it at this time given lower confidence. There may also be some isolated showers or thunderstorms in the north and east later this morning but do not expect any activity to affect the TAF sites. Winds will remain variable around 5 knots or less through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JVM

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