Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 270055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 UPDATED FORECAST ELEMENTS TO BLEND IN THE REALITY OF EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WERE MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. OTHER STORMS OVER WESTERN KY WERE MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD...AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOT OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FEATURES TODAY. FIRST...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A BOWING MCS IS WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS BOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. ITS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF THIS BOWING SYSTEM INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS CAPPED WITH NOT CONVECTION PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP. THESE SHOWERS WON`T HAVE A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE OTHER THAN A QUICK PASSING SHOWER. MAIN SHOW WILL LIKELY COME AS THE MCS OUT WEST PUSHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG IS SOUTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE MCS...AND THEY HAVE IT BREAKING APART AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS FOR OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...TRAILING OFF TO LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY...PRODUCING A LULL IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OUR VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BY TOMORROW...QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT SITTING OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE SHOWERS...HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH SUPPORT SYNOPTICALLY FOR ANY SHOWERS. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP...WE MAY HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STAY LOW ON THE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA ALONG WITH A PEAK IN DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...BEFORE IT EXITS EAST LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS INTO THE 70 ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MODEST FORCING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKER CAP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS AND RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT THE GIVEN BLENDED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT STRUGGLING TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN KY...AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...WILL BRING THE ACTION TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z. STORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS UNCLEAR. AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IS EXPECTED...WITH A RELATIVE LULL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS NOT HIGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.