Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270748 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 3O4 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OR SUNDAY PROPER. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW. A BIG SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HANDING THIS SYSTEM ONLY A LITTLE OVER 72 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST IS LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CARRIES THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE GULF OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. THE 06/12Z GFS SPLITS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...THUS ADVERTISING A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS PART OF ITS ENERGY RIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PART OF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS THEN SHOWS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL PHASING WITH WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF. APPLYING A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES/INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...WE APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO A MORE SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TIME TYPE WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF HEAT AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT THAT USING A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SHOULD HANDLE TRENDS EXCEPTIONALLY WELL. BASICALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT POPS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY THE LONGER THE CLOUDS LAST. EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM NEAR DAWN TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...STAYING OUT OF THE TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CALM BUT THEN WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JVM

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