Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220752 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 352 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 Available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 352 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 Above normal temperatures and multiple rain chances will be the story for the long term period. An area of surface high pressure will be parked of the Mid Atlantic Coast to begin the period and heights will be on the rise as upper level ridge builds east. This will combine with lifting warm front to bring above average temperatures to the region. Right now looks like this warm front will be dry here in the eastern side of the state Thursday night. All eyes then turn to the Rockies for already developed upper level closed low and nearly vertically stacked system. This will system will eject east and then northeast into the Mississippi River Valley by Saturday. Given the models are backing off on speed with this did opt to back off on POPs for Saturday. Overall think the best chances will occur Saturday night into Sunday based on the latest guidance. Keep some slight thunder in the grids with some instability Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Overall this system becomes less significant, as the surface low weakens as it moves NE into the Great Lakes. The ridging behind this will be brief, as another wave ejects east out of the Rockies into the Mississippi River Valley Monday. Given timing uncertainty with this will keep some POPs in the grids on Monday, but could see a small window of drying before precipitation chances rise again Late Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 Expect VFR conditions across eastern Kentucky through the TAF period. A few low and some mid level as a shortwave trough passes through the area. Winds will average out of the north to northeast at 5 to 10 KT as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will slacken to closer to 5KT or less during the 22Z to 6Z period with gradual loss of solar insolation and deeper mixing combined with a decrease in the pressure gradient. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JP

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