Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161637 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1237 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through tonight. - A deep trough passing aloft brings a threat of some rain/snow showers on Monday. - Hard freeze conditions Monday night could kill any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth. - Temperatures rebound back to near normal through mid-week, with lower confidence in the next potential chance of precipitation moving in towards the end of the work week.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1225 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 Fog and stratocumulus has lifted and scattered out over the past hour. Minor adjustments were made to grids to account for this as well as trends in hourly observations for temperatures, dewpoints, and winds. Overall, this led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 1046 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 Fog and sky cover grids were updated based on recent observations and satellite trends. The fog was lifting and starting to dissipate across the Dense Fog Advisory area and it was allowed to expire at 10 AM. The fog and lingering stratocumulus and stratus should continue to gradually lift and mix out through midday to early this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 Touched up the fog in the grids and decided to expand the SPS to the rest of the CWA as the low clouds break up down in the far southeast. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure pulling away to the southeast of the area while a cooler high is moving in from the west. This is attempting to clear out the low clouds through eastern Kentucky early this morning. However, the wet ground left from yesterday`s rains is allowing fog to develop and become extra thick in the deeper valleys where those clouds cleared earlier - mainly in the western and northern parts of the CWA. For this reason, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 am EDT for our western and northern counties with an SPS out for patchier fog elsewhere. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 30s in the northwest parts of the JKL CWA to near 50 degrees in the far southeast. Meanwhile, amid those light winds, dewpoints likewise vary from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 40s in the southeast. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict fast and nearly zonal flow at mid levels downstream from a deep trough finally opening up over the Desert Southwest. The flow remains quick and laminar, with limited energy, packets over Kentucky into Sunday even as a very broad and deep trough descends into the Great Lakes from Canada - though starting to dig to our northwest late in the period. Given the small model spread, have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with mainly just some terrain distinction added to the hourly temps and low temperatures tonight. Sensible weather will feature another day of slightly above normal temperatures awaiting the initial (and mostly dry) cold front arriving Sunday morning. Look for a mostly sunny day, today, under the auspices of high pressure, once the lingering fog and low clouds clear this morning. The approach of that boundary tonight will keep the air more stirred along with some mid level clouds limiting the radiational cooling, but still allowing for some terrain differences to develop after dark. This front passes through Sunday morning mainly pushing any return flow moisture south of the state, keeping southern warmth at bay, and generally acting as a reminder of the chilly start promised for the new work week. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to add some terrain distinctions into low and hourly temperatures tonight. PoPs were generally single digits from the NBM and kept there through Sunday evening. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 546 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 The models agree on an amplified long wave pattern to start out over the CONUS through early next week. A progressive stout short wave trough will move in from the western Great Lakes late this weekend, establishing a deeper northern stream trough across the East by Monday. The trough will pull off to the northeast and broaden with time through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a closed low over the southwestern CONUS will gradually move east and transition to more of an open wave. This feature will reach the southern Plains by Thursday, and then at least the middle/lower Mississippi Valley by Friday. Model agreement on the details remain poor with this system, with the GFS slower with the progression of the short wave, while the ECMWF is quicker and keeps moisture shunted further southeast. Given the uncertainty, stuck close with the blended guidance regarding the chance of precipitation, with peak PoPs around 50%, generally a bit less compared to yesterday. The majority of the extended forecast will be dry across eastern Kentucky, although with the passage of the deeper trough axis on Monday, some rain/snow shower activity may occur during the day, with highs retreating to the lower 40s for most locations. Model guidance has trended less deep with the available moisture and consequently PoPs for Monday. Confidence remains high on a hard freeze for Monday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures will then gradually rebound back to near normal through mid-week, with dry weather hanging on through most of Thursday. Precipitation chances then increase Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024 As of midday, fog and stratocumulus was mixing out with any lingering instances of MVFR or IFR quickly trending to VFR. Overall, VFR prevailed in most places as of 1630Z. Winds will become southwest to west early in the period in the 5 to 10KT range through about 06Z. Then, as a cold front drops across the are, winds will shift to the west and then northwest late in the period again at 5 to 10KT. Despite the passage of a cold front, it will be rather moisture starved and VFR will prevail through the end of the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JP

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