Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221155 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Did an update to the grids mainly to adjust the sky cover and tweak the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 415 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 07z sfc analysis shows high pressure through the southeast portion of the area with a wavy front lying just northeast of Kentucky. Along this boundary a series of organized storms have been rolling east southeast through the Ohio Valley. The latest of these clusters are passing through the region with one to the northeast dissipating over central West Virginia with another still strong one progressing from northern Indiana across into northwest Ohio. On satellite, the cold and high cloud tops are evident with the Indiana storms (as the WV ones warm). These clouds are drifting southeast into Kentucky but thinning with time. The clouds are not preventing much of the radiative cooling, though high dewpoints are limiting the low temperature potential so that ridge to valley differences are running in the order of 5 degrees or less generally from 70 to 75 degrees. The high dewpoints - in the low 70s - will provide enough moisture to generate fog in the river valleys again tonight, though signs of it - including from GOES 16 nighttime microphysics composite channel - are so far quite limited. Meanwhile winds are light and variable to calm. The models are in fairly good agreement aloft with the longwave pattern through the region during the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the southwestward retreat of the mid level ridge that has brought the heat and humidity these past several days as well as limiting the convection across the state. This ridge retreats in the face of wave after wave coming through in northwest flow just north of the JKL CWA. one of these waves is passing through West Virginia early this morning while the next will take a similar path across the area later today. A more potent one then digs southeast through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley for Sunday. This will bring plenty of energy and significant height falls to the region to close out the weekend. Given the model agreement will favor a general blend with a significant lean toward the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 models for weather details and timing. Sensible weather will feature another broiling day for much of east Kentucky as temperatures climb again into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. This will mean heat indices for the area topping out between 100 and 105 degrees - but not quite enough for heat advisories in the JKL CWA. We will, however, continue the SPS and HWO highlighting of the heat and humidity. The storm threat will be more significant then yesterday as the ingredients will be in place with good instability and flow aloft to support any storms that manage to develop. That will be the crux of the issue, though, as a small cap will be in place around 750mb and little in the way of triggers so long as outflow boundaries stay off to the north and east of the area - as suggested by the HRRR and NAM12. As such, have kept PoPs on the low end of guidance, more toward the MET rather than MAV, allowing the heat to be the main wx story. However, should storms to our north manage to send a significant outflow boundary this way more active weather could be in the offing with damaging winds the main threat and a secondary concern for hail and excessive rains. Will highlight this in the HWO and SPS. After another likely quiet night for most of the area, barring any MCS activity making it this far south, just as potent conditions, or greater, are expected for Sunday though with more support from falling heights and shortwave energy to better activate the heat and humidity driven instability - along with the sfc boundary likely settling through this part of the state. Fairly high PW air today and Sunday will also threaten excessive rains though the storms should be somewhat progressive given the winds aloft - training will be a concern, nevertheless. Temperatures will likely be lower for highs on Sunday given more clouds and storms around. Used the CONSShort as a starting point for all the grids with some adjustments to temperatures at night for ridge and valley differences along with a beef up in them today for highs - using persistence as a guide. Did tighten up the PoPs through the period trying to time the evolution of MCS and frontal activity - but uncertainty remains high throughout concerning the convectively driven elements of the forecast - which will also affect maximum temperatures and heat index values. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Challenging extended package this morning. Models are in good agreement for DYS 3-4 but diverge significantly beyond that both with the details of the mid/upper level pattern as well as with sensible weather. Mid/Upper level cut off low moving out of Texas Monday opens up into a wave by Tuesday as it transits the MS/TN/OH valleys. This feature will provide another soaking rain to the area with models spitting out around an inch of rainfall on average, mainly from Monday night through Tuesday. Forecast gets complicated thereafter as a series of disturbances rotate around a low pressure system residing along the Northern Tier and southern Canada. Models appear to have difficulty with the strength and timing of several lobes of energy rounding their parent low. The GFS presents a quicker solution with weaker disturbances. The ECMWF advertises stronger disturbances which dig a bit further south resulting in an overall slower solution and correspondingly stronger surface features. The Canadian generally provides partial support for both solutions. For sensible weather we can expect a seasonably warm start to the extended but cool significantly through the period after Tuesday. Rain will be tapering off Sunday night before redeveloping across the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is very low confidence with respect to precipitation types and amounts beyond that. Depending on your model of choice we could see anything from rain to snow from Wednesday night through Friday. At this time felt the best approach was to stay close to the blend of model solutions and guidance which suggest that a wintry mix of precipitation will be possible through that time frame depending on the time of day/night. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, as we remain under the waning influence of an upper level ridge for the better part of another 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible for mainly northeast parts of eastern Kentucky during the afternoon hours, but confidence - based on the latest HRRR - is still too low to include VCTS at any site today or tonight. Light and variable winds will increase to between 5 and 10 kts out of the west southwest for this afternoon then diminish in the evening.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GREIF

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