Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 022056 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104- 106>120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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