Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 130919 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 419 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 FINAL BAND OF MORE CONSISTENT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING THE END TO ANY ADDITIONAL DUSTINGS IN TERM OF ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL SPARSE BANDS...SOURCING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC SHOULD KEEP THESE BANDS FROM PRODUCING MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE THIS...WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS STOUT ~1040 MB RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CALM AND CRISP NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A FEW VALLEYS NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD DOME OF THE RIDGE MAY VERY WELL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING. BACKING UPPER FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...ALONG WITH VEERING SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR ALOFT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUD COVER FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND POINTS SOUTH WILL SEE THIS MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME BEFORE LOCALES OFF TO THE EAST BEGIN TO SEE SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO SUNSET...SNOWFALL WILL APPROACH ONE INCH FROM MOUNT STERLING TO FLEMINGSBURG WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH...LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP TREATED ROADWAYS MANAGEABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS WILL START...AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE BUT STILL LATER PERIOD WILL GO WITH SPS IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THINK HEADLINES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. OVERALL RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT 2-4 INCHES WITHIN THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE...HOWEVER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AND THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS OF SNOW AMOUNTS. AFTER THIS MODELS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE RUN TO RUN...WILL SAY A GOOD PORTION OF THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED IN TRACKING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO SPELL A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL MIXING TO ALL RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOSING ICE. RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE COOLER 00Z NAM...GIVEN IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN RELATIONS TO IT/S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. AFTER THIS LOW SWINGS NE OF THE REGION AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON THE BACKSIDE...THIS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW KEEPING THE RATIOS LOWER HERE AND BETTER QPF LINES ALONG OUR VA BORDER. THEREFORE RIGHT NOW THINKING LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THAT SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NE...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE COAT TAILS AND IS POISED TO BRING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SE ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...POP WISE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND. DOES LOOK LIKE ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO LEAD TO A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER TIMING AND LOCATION WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES FOR THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPS. MATTER OF FACT BLENDS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS ON FRIDAY MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME SPOTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 102 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. THIS IS CREATING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WITH UP TO A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE AT KJKL/KSJS EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL SITES BY EARLY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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