Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF CURVATURE TO THE LINE OF HEAVIEST STORMS;...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH. THE MERCER AND LINCOLN COUNTY MESONET SITES SAW WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AS THE LINE WENT THROUGH AND BATH COUNTY SAW A GUST TO 41 MPH. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAX GUSTS STAY AROUND 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MOST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL DROP BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT GOT HAMMERED LAST NIGHT FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE NOT YET SEEN ANY TRAINING OF THE ECHOES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS WITH A VERY WEAK THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MOST LIKELY...ANY HAIL WILL STAY IN THE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO ELEVATION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN CONSISTENTLY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP BENEATH IT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL END BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AS THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF CURVATURE TO THE LINE OF HEAVIEST STORMS;...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH. THE MERCER AND LINCOLN COUNTY MESONET SITES SAW WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AS THE LINE WENT THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAX GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW 40 MPH AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...HOWEVER THE STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT. SOME TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 6 TO 8Z WHEN SOME MVFR MIST MAY BE EFFECTING THE TAF SITES. LOOKING FOR VSBY DOWN TO ABOUT 2 SM AT THE TAF SITES BUT DOWN TO 1/2SM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY. ONCE THE MIST CLEARS IN THE MORNING...EXPECTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATER FOR TOMORROW THAN IT WAS TODAY. THE TIMING OF STORMS FOR TOMORROW IS TOO UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER SHOULD BE AFTER 16Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JJ

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