Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230110 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 810 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 810 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the overnight hours. Temps should slowly be on the rise through the night as warmer air slowly shifts north into the area. As well, the last of the showers have shifted off to the east and updated the pops to put in a break in the precip until later tonight when the boundary shifts east into the area bringing a round of rain to mainly the northwestern Bluegrass. As well, with a saturated boundary layer, some fog is possible tonight along the ridges. The valleys will likely see a low ceiling instead. A new zfp was required for this update.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 A frontal boundary was laid out across the southern part of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures were as mild as the 70s south of the front, but only in the 40s north of I-64 on the cold side of the boundary. A few light showers lingered, but most of the region was precip free. Models are in relatively good agreement for at least the first couple of forecast periods. An impulse (evidences by precip over AR) will move along the front and pull it northward tonight. It should make it entirely north of the JKL forecast area Friday morning. The most significant precip associated with the wave should stay to our north and northwest tonight. However, aside from the continuation of our scattered showers, some of the precip associated with the wave will probably affect our northwest counties for a while late tonight into Friday morning, and a likely POP has been used for this. We should emerge into another generally lull in precip on Friday, and also see some breaks in the clouds. Being on the warm side of the front, this should allow for unseasonably mild highs in the 70s across the area. On Friday night the frontal boundary may settle slightly further south into our area for a time (in the wake of the passing wave/impulse). A stronger low pressure system will take shape over the plains and result in increasing flow off the Gulf. With the front in our area, this will bring another increase in the POP, but once again the most significant rain should be further to the north and northwest. In terms of rainfall amounts, models have not been consistent, but do suggest that we will not see enough to cause hydro problems through Friday night. That being the case, no Flood Watch has been issued. Problems in the long term period can`t be ruled out yet, and and ESF product has been reissued for the northern part of the forecast area to address this. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 Saturday will continue to feature mild conditions with shortwave energy departing in the morning with a brief lull in precipitation expected. However, another vort max will cross northern Kentucky by the afternoon, with additional rain chances across the area. Will maintain the rather high pops given the moist environment for late February. A few thunderstorms may be possible in our western and northwestern zones on Saturday, but its a question to if we can generate enough instability with ongoing cloud cover. A strong shortwave trough will bring a stronger low pressure system across the great lakes Saturday night into Sunday, dragging a strong cold front across eastern Kentucky. Some thunderstorms will likely develop upstream and gradually weaken as they move into the area Saturday night as they outrun the better instability. There is a marginal risk of a few strong to severe storms in our southwestern zones given the tremendous shear in place, but confidence remains low on how much of this activity will hold together as it reaches the area overnight. For now, will introduce the possibility of a few strong storms along the heavy rain potential for Saturday and Saturday night into the HWO. Showers will taper off on Sunday, although NAM and ECMWF keeps some moisture around in southeast Kentucky into Monday morning. Thus, have kept some low end pops going a bit longer for these areas. High pressure eventually returns by Monday into Monday night with a return to more seasonable temperatures. In fact, lows Monday night may dip below freezing for the first time in awhile. More rain chances will return by midweek and last into Thursday as the active weather pattern continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 633 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 As a boundary continues to remain laid out from southwest to northeast over the area, low level moisture and a few showers will continue to move northeast through the area this evening. Expect a few showers to reduce visibility. A brief break in the shower activity will leave a few TAF sites such as SME, LOZ and JKL to remain VFR for much of the period. Later tonight and into the day tomorrow, another shot of rainfall will move through the area leaving some VLIFR conditions at many sites. Locations to the southeast will see stronger winds as well with some 20 knot gusts by tomorrow afternoon. Expect lighter winds elsewhere. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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