Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 220013 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2017 Convection is currently aligned along the Cumberland Valley, close to the surface boundary near the TN/KY border. Some of the embedded thunderstorms are slow-moving, and will have to watch for locally heavy rainfall in places. Further west, an area of showers and storms are moving in from the southwest, associated with a short wave trough in the mid-levels. The HRRR seems to have a decent handle on this feature and its timing. As such, have beefed up the POPs a bit into this evening from southwest to northeast. A lot of the thunderstorms will likely remain confined to along and south of Highway 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway, where better instability will remain. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2017 Slow moving frontal boundary lies across Southeast Kentucky, through Tennessee to Northern Mississippi. Showers and a few thunderstorms are showing a diminishing trend early this afternoon as a short wave travels east. This drier trend should be short lived as more ripples of short wave energy interact with moisture along the boundary. Locations in the southern portion of the area should see widespread showers and thunderstorms by this evening. Locations farther to the north should experience widespread precip by around midnight when the front will be lifting northward in response to a potent wave of low pressure to the southwest. Thunder chances are expected to be limited to the early evening hours until instability wanes with loss of daytime heating. For Saturday, the front should be located near the TN/KY border. 1005 mb low pressure is expected to be tracking through TN. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and persist through the day and into Saturday night. High precipitable water lifting over the slow moving frontal surface parallel to the mid level flow will result in a few rounds of heavy rain, possibly leading to localized high water problems. Elected to hold off on a flood watch due to model uncertainty with respect to rainfall amounts and locations of heaviest amounts. Rainfall should decrease in coverage and intensity over western counties late Saturday night when the low is forecast to be over East Tennessee, though far Eastern Kentucky could stay under showers for the bulk of the period. While all locations can expect below normal temperatures, highs Saturday will vary with respect to the frontal position, with upper 60s in the far south contrasting with upper 50s central and lower 50 far north. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 305 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2017 An upper level low will drop southeast across the Tennessee Valley and across the southeastern United States Sunday into Monday. This will keep a lingering chance of showers across the area through much of the day on Sunday before tapering off heading into Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the lower 60s. Weak high pressure will then build into the area Monday into Tuesday leading to dry conditions and a bit of a warming trend. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to around 70, increasing to the mid 70s for Tuesday. An upper level trough axis will weaken as it moves from the central United States into the the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Thursday. This will help a weakening cold front drop down toward the area through mid week but there is quite a bit of model variation with the timing and placement of the front. Will therefore just allow for some lower chance pops to overspread the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the lower 80s across most of the area. Mid and upper level ridging will then build into the area Thursday into Friday. This will lead to dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures with highs both days in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms will be advancing from the south and west across the area this evening. Ceilings will gradually lower down to MVFR, with temporary IFR conditions expected within any thunderstorms. Ceilings will continue to lower down to IFR through Saturday, as an area of low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary near the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Periods of showers, along with a few thunderstorms generally along and south of a line from KSME to KPBX will continue across the area. Light and variable winds will become north to northeast at 5 to 10 kts through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geogerian SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Lott AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.