Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281947 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY NOSED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PLEASANT AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVERHEAD. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS CURRENTLY RULING ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST...AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. CUMULUS WILL BE ON THE DEMISE TOWARDS DUSK...WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY ON OUR DOORSTEP FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FOSTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR US...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS...TO AROUND 60 ON THE RIDGES. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE...CLOSEST TO THE FORCING...AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-64. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE BETTER AVAILABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN ALIGN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UPGRADE FROM SPC ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND WE LOSE HEATING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE BALMY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. IN THIS PATTERN...AN MCS LIKE TREND STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE AND THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE FRONT OR JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SEEM TO BE MORE OF AN MCS TYPE NATURE WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE WELL IN HAND AND CONSISTENT WITH THE NEWEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO. WHILE IT DOES SEEM THAT DIURNAL TRENDS WILL HAVE QUITE AN IMPACT ON HOW THE COMPLEXES WILL PLAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED AND TIMING COMPOUNDS THIS...WILL BE SURE TO INCREASE POPS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS PATTERN AS IT KEEPS POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS MAY BE A BIT EXCESSIVE...TIMING AS MENTIONED...WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID ADJUST THE POPS TO HAVE A DIURNAL TREND BUT KEEPING THE MAX POPS DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE BLEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS DUSK. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL ALSO LIGHTEN TOWARDS DUSK. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS THE HEART OF IT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL INCLUDE SOME VCSH BY THE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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