Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 021438 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1038 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 MUCH OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. WE ARE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVERALL TOWARDS LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE...BUT A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AN INVERSION HAS SET UP WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY. THIS HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH SOME UPPER 50S FOUND IN THE DEEPER SPOTS WHILE HILLTOPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF FOG OUT THERE YET. HOWEVER...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... EXPECT THE FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE DAWN ALONG WITH LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS TO NEW ENGLAND. A WIGGLE AT THE CORE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL GRADIENT THAT TIGHTENS...RESULTING IN FASTER FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON AND THE BROADER CONSENSUS LATER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH FAIRLY LOW AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD INTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN. BY MONDAY...THOUGH...THE SFC PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH A COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE STATE THAT SHOULD HELP TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EAST KENTUCKY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO HIGH CAPES AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THERE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRY GUIDANCE INTO MONDAY MORNING. DID GO A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL INTRUSION OF STORMS... ORGANIZED OR OTHERWISE...FROM THE NORTH BY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS BY THURSDAY...A SERIES OF STRONGER TROUGHS COME ASHORE OVER THE WEST AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST. THIS THROUGH THE LAST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND THROUGH KY. THE GFS AND EURO DOES ALIGN A BIT WITH THIS SOLUTION. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL LAG ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. THIS AREA BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TOPPLE OVER THE THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE SUPER BLEND HAS THIS IN IT/S SOLUTION AS WELL WITH THE PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THIS PATTERN FOR MCS/S REMAIN...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY BASED UPON THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS . THUS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLENDS SOLUTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOSES A BIT AMPLITUDE AND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO DO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUS...LACKING CONFIDENCE...WILL GO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SUPER BLEND ON POPS. THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL KEEP HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN SHORT...THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SEEMS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AND WET WITH THE END OF THE FORECAST POSSIBLY CONTINUING THIS TREND WITH A COOLING TREND AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE BULK OF ANY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAWN MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO VALLEY FLOORS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AS SUCH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD ALL REMAIN FREE OF FOG THIS MORNING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL PROBABLY BE AT SME AND SYM WHERE SOME MVFR OR BRIEF IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.