Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311815 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MOVED IN AND DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY KICKING OFF STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND ALSO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED...TOO. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING INTO OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR EAST KENTUCKY IT WILL MORE LIKELY SPUR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW CELLS FOUND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE DRIFTING NORTHEAST. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERTAKE EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE THE SUNSHINE DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND HELPS TO BUILD INSTABILITY AS A PRIME INGREDIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ANY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. READINGS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT 10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR BUT ALSO THE SHORTBLEND IN THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN KY. BUT OVERALL...THIS IS LESS COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO START PICKING UP AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE AND WE BEGIN HEATING UP...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO NEAR THE REGION. WILL KEEP WITH ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO PICK UP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WHAT FOG IS LEFT ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING LITTLE PROBLEMS...AND IS LIKELY LIFTING OR MIXING OUT. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. AS OF THIS LAST HOUR...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE LOADED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THESE PARAMETERS WERE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS IS CONTINUING TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECT IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF KY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THIS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE KY...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AND THE FAR SE BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. IT IS AT THIS POINT IT WILL BECOME STALLED OUT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FAVORED THE GFS DURING TODAY GIVEN ITS STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEN USED MORE OF THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAKING MANUAL TWEAKS AS DEEMED NECESSARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING FRONT...HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA AND POINTS WESTWARD...NEARER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE GAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN AND BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SILL SUPPORTING GOOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP THE BEST. A DECENT MOIST LEVEL IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS DRYING ALOFT...COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG CELLS. LI/S ALSO CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE -4 TO - 7 RANGE INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH OVERALL WIND SHEER DOES SEEM A BIT LACKING FOR ANYTHING TO BE ROTATIONAL. OTHERWISE... PWATS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT ALOFT...SO UNLESS YOU HAVE SEVERAL STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME AREA...STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CUT DOWN ON A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE MORE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY PLACE THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...WILL BE SUBJECT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH. WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOSS OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE. STILL...SEVERAL LOCATION DO SHOW SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO ENDED UP ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NRLY INFLUENCE. THIS...COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIP...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE...WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREWING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTH LEAVING A STALLED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SOME WAVES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW FOR SOME INCREASED LIFT AS THEY PASS BY BUT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SEEMS A BIT LACKING. NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND DOES SEEM TO STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP AND ANY SHIFTING IS CERTAINLY MISSED. THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL WITH MAX POTENTIAL OF POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 OR ABOVE. OVERALL...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH DAY. WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE MOIST PATTERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BLEND ALSO KEEP A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF POPS ALONG WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. A DIURNAL TREND TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY BUT THOSE WILL MODERATE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL GENERALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ALSO SOME EXPANSION WEST AND NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOWS FROM THE CURRENT STORMS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE MORE SPARSE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A TEMPO WITH THE STORMS AT THE LOZ SITE THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL THE SITES...THOUGH SJS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL OF A DIRECT HIT FROM STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND LATER STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY. HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VIS INTO THE MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR RANGE FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME BR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED AND UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN GUSTS. THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF

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