Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 111845 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 145 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND ALSO THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EVEN SO...A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE CHILLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES DRYING UP AND ALSO TO INCORPORATE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 INGESTED THE LATEST HOURLY OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE TEMPERATURE RELATED ELEMENTS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING IN LIEU OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MERCURY PLUMMETS INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MOST LIKELY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.| && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 STILL SOME LINGERING SC CLOUDS AROUND AT THE LOW END OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING... MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR CIGS TO THEN LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z FOR MOST PLACES WITH VSBY DOWN TO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. HAVE HIT THIS HARDEST IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...SOME VCSH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE PERIOD... GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GREIF

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