Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231752 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1252 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1250 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017 Have made some minor updates throughout the morning to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current observations. Otherwise, no major changes needed with high pressure and mostly sunny skies in control across the region. A few passing high clouds are in place across the far northern CWA but are scattered at most and posing little concern. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017 A cold, but quiet Thanksgiving morning out there. Temperatures have settled into the upper teens to lower 20s across most of the area. Outside of some very minor tweaks to the latest hourly trends, no updates needed this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 307 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday. At the same time airmass will start to moderate over the region, allowing for slightly warmer afternoon highs today and even warmer readings on Friday. Overnight lows tonight will remain on the cold side with light winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. This will put lows in the valleys fairly close to the readings we are seeing this morning. Ridges and more unsheltered areas may see a slight increase in low temperatures tonight, but still likely below freezing. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017 While the models all begin the extended portion of the forecast in good agreement aloft, they diverge early in the new work week lowing confidence in any specific solution with time. The models depict a gradual amplification of a trough centered over the Great Lakes heading into the weekend. With this, a trough axis and energy band will push across Kentucky by Saturday evening with similar timing and strength. Heights will rebound mildly in the wake of this trough heading into the new week, though additional batches of weak energy will pass overhead Sunday and Monday. At this point, the models` spread increases with the GFS and ECMWF differing on a large trough moving on shore of the West Coast - the GFS being quicker and shallower. Downstream, this keeps the pattern out of sync over Kentucky through mid week with respect to the amount of any ridging that forms over the state. With time, the West Coast trough moves into the middle portion of the nation though the GFS is much faster than the ECMWF as this key feature approaches Tuesday night. The GFS`s version of this trough passes through Kentucky early Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps its back to the west through Thursday. With the differences later in the period anticipated the need to make some adjustments for the Wednesday time frame to account for a blend of these nearly diametrically opposed solutions. Sensible weather will feature a continuation of our period of quiet and seasonable conditions as one slow moving area of high pressure is replaced by another with little moisture available for the fronts in between. The first of these boundaries looks to move through early Saturday with just a very small potential for a shower - but left out of the forecast for now. Following this, high pressure keeps a lid on all activity well into the new work week. The question arises from Tuesday night into Wednesday when the GFS pushes a cold front into the state with a potential for showers while the ECMWF keeps high pressure in control. Not prepared to bite on any particular solution at this point have allowed for increased PoPs to close out the extended forecast and not clear the area too quickly, though still faster than the blends. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period with a slow moderating trend noted - at least through Tuesday. Made just minor adjustments to the temperature grids each night anticipating a small to moderate ridge to valley split. Also, narrowed the range of slight chance to chance PoPs with the cold front for later in the new week - per collaboration with neighbors and with consideration of the WPC guidance. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017 VFR conditions (including mostly clear skies) and light winds will prevail through the period as high pressure remains in place across the region.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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