Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221957 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 357 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 357 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Straightforward forecast for the short term. Dry, relatively pleasant weather dominates the headlines. We will see a gradual increase in heights aloft through the period as short wave ridging builds into the Ohio Valley and the all too familiar Bermuda High once again begins to exert its influence across the southeastern CONUS. Return flow will bring a slight increase to the humidity levels by late Tuesday into Tuesday night. For sensible weather our main forecast challenge will be temps, dew points, and the potential for fog. Much drier air has mixed into the boundary layer this afternoon with dew points at a few locations dipping into the low 50s. Dew points will recover somewhat after sunset, but low crossover temps will make it much more difficult to realize any widespread dense fog. Best opportunity will be for those locations closer to some source of water such as our river valleys. Bottom line...overnight fog should not be as widespread as this morning`s, and a little worse than tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as our temps begin to moderate. Highs Tuesday will climb into the mid 80s for most areas. Overnight lows will be quite refreshing as we bottom out in the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 257 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure which has encompassed the Ohio River Valley during the short term will finally start pushing east of the region by Wednesday morning at 12Z. While still in control, this will allow return southerly flow and warming moistening conditions across the region. High temperatures will find themselves back into the mid 80s with higher humidity values Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a closed low will be rotating through along the central Canadian/US border. This will slowly lose strength and dissipate as strong upper level ridging holds tight across the southeast conus through Thursday, blocking further forward propagation. At the surface a low pressure system will traverse along the path of this upper low, along the central US/Canada border, pulling a cold front southeast across the plain states. As the upper level low becomes blocked from eastward movement and loses strength, the surface low will also lose forward propagation and the cold front will start to shear out. So what does this mean for eastern KY? With our location between the incoming cold front, and the return flow of the exiting high pressure system, the stage will be set for possible convection. However, with upper level ridging still in predominate control, all forcing will be limited to the low levels with little upper level dynamics. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring some isolated pops into the region Wednesday afternoon, and continued the isolated to scattered convection through Thursday. However, the location and timing of this is still somewhat very uncertain. The frontal zone finally progresses southeast through the state late Thursday night and into the day Friday. But even then, the lack of forcing, in addition to two strong high pressure centers on either side of the frontal boundary, will keep pops at a isl/sct minimal, with only light QPF expected. Temperatures will modify little during this period, with no strong wind shifts in place. Expect mid and upper 80s with decent humidity each day into the weekend. High pressure should take hold post frontal Saturday and Sunday, however the GFS and ECMWF are showing varying solutions, with the GFS still trying to allow for convection across the region. Given the uncertainty this far out in the forecast, will continue with the model blend for pops and QPF during this time, which keeps the CWA relatively dry.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 VFR conditions expected through the period. Exception will be our deeper valley locations where late night, early morning fog will develop again late tonight. With drier air settling down across the region do not expect the fog to be as prevalent tonight as it was this morning except possibly in the river valleys. Consequently KSME VSBYS will likely be influenced for a few hours through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday and as such went with a short period of MVFR/IFR VSBYS, 09-12Z. Otherwise winds will generally be light and variable. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...RAY

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