Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251744 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY. THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JMW

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