Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 182030 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 430 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Drier air is on the way in from the west and northwest late this afternoon. There were some very isolated showers yet over the eastern tip of the state, but coverage will probably end up being 10% or less, and it`s not worthy of including a 20% POP in the forecast. Otherwise, there`s nothing more than fair wx cu present, and these will dry up this evening to leave main clear skies tonight. A shortwave trough will pass through on Saturday. Forecast soundings show enough instability along with the dynamic support to warrant a low POP for thunderstorms in our far northern counties. Anything that occurs should end in the afternoon as the wave passes to the east. That will leave us with mainly clear skies again for Saturday night. Will look for our typical late summer fog each night-- developing first in the deeper valleys and then spreading. It will dissipate after sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 The upper level pattern shows good agreement from the model suites indicating rising heights to begin the forecast period. This will provide a platform for a break in the weather through Monday night. However, both Sunday and Monday we will likely see some afternoon CU, but this will not kill seeing the eclipse on Monday. Also did opt to paint a unorthodox diurnal curve to the hourly temperature grids given the eclipse and time of day. There remains some uncertainty to the amount of drop in temperature, given this will be dependent on other elements such as cloud cover and dewpoint. This will be better picked up by the HRRRX by Monday, as they have added the eclipse effects in the background of the model. Another upper level trough will be reloading in the Upper Midwest and will begin dig and suppress the upper level high by Tuesday. This along with the approaching cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms by Late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Right now timing wise the better chances of seeing rainfall will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Then the big question will be does the front make it across the region Wednesday, but right now the models are in decent agreement with this front moving east. This would lead to a overall better end to the week next week, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70 and PWAT values dropping below 1 inch.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017 Showers and limited MVFR conditions lingered over the far southeast part of the state. The showers will be moving out to the east very shortly, and VFR conditions are then expected in all locations from late this afternoon until late tonight. Fog will develop in valleys late tonight and spread in breadth and depth, probably affecting most TAF sites with MVFR conditions (or perhaps worse) at times toward dawn. Fog and low clouds will dissipate after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions everywhere by late morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.