Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230559 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Still seeing some lingering shower activity across the Lake Cumberland region at this hour, but should see this continue to remain light and likely dissipate by dawn. Greatest impact will be fog development, with perhaps dense conditions materializing in deeper valleys owing to earlier day rainfall. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Two issues to address in the short term part of the forecast. First is the chance for thunderstorms for the remainder of today and then on Saturday. A weak mid level short wave is passing across the area this afternoon. Convection that has been developing in the northern part of our area has been short lived with an apparent mid level cap in place which is hinted at by some of the model data. As this cap continues to weaken should see isolated to scattered storms mainly in the north and west for the latter part of the afternoon. With outflow from any convection late today possibly triggering additional convection, the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight. With the passage of the short wave tonight it appears that the better chance for thunderstorms on Saturday will be over the southern part of the area. However chance will remain low, about 30 percent chance in the south and 20 percent chance in the north on Saturday. The second issue to address is the heat for Saturday. Current temperature forecast for Saturday is for maximums in the lower 90s, and this will combine with humidity to once again push heat indices to around 100. With heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees will still not need to issue a heat advisory for our area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Models continue to show good agreement and continuity with mid and upper level features through the period. Broad, flattened mid and upper level ridge across the southern CONUS buckles in response to multiple short wave troughs tracking across the northern tier. The main center of the high retrogrades to the west coast just as the all too familiar Bermuda High reforms off the southeastern United States. In between a mean trough develops over the Upper Mid-West and Great Lake Region by the end of the forecast window. With our area lying on the southern periphery of an active northern stream, sensible weather will manage some isolated to at times scattered convection at just about any time through the period. There will be a greater chance of rainfall early next week as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late Monday, or possibly Tuesday. This boundary stalls out and will tend to keep any convection focused across the region through mid week. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward Thursday, just as another trough begins to drop into the region from the northwest by late Thursday or Friday. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for this time of the year, or possibly slightly cooler. But overall our weather will remain quite muggy. Overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 IFR fog was currently plaguing SYM while MVFR visibilities were in place at SME. All sites should see at least MVFR conditions as clearing works south across eastern Kentucky, with likely IFR conditions lasting for a period at SYM and developing at SME. Should see VFR conditions return by 12-13Z Saturday as low clouds/moisture mix out. Best chance of seeing thunder will reside at LOZ/SME by early Saturday afternoon. Will maintain VCTS for now given sparse coverage currently expected, while negating mention elsewhere for now. VFR conditions should persist through 06Z Sunday as winds remain light near or below 5 knots. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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