Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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798 FXUS63 KJKL 271905 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 305 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...Torrential rainfall on Thursday may lead to Localized Flash Flooding... Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening with the primary focus turning to the heavy rain potential tomorrow. A stalled frontal boundary has lifted north of the area and is expected to stay just north of the state through the day tomorrow. This has allowed winds to turn more southerly this afternoon. As a southern stream wave strengthens and lifts out of the Mississippi Valley overnight tonight, winds will turn a bit more southwesterly and increase in strength, allowing for an even deeper pull of moist air. This upper wave will interact with the stationary frontal boundary, as well as the potential phasing of the northern and southern stream jets, to create a large surge of warm deep moisture and lift for which storms to develop across our area. PWAT values for tonight will be well over 2 inches and will continue to increase up to 2.4 inches in some places by tomorrow afternoon. While CAPE and LI values remain decent per model soundings, the profiles are long, skinny, and moist with little wind shear. This type of profile indicates heavy rain and flash flooding concerns, moreso than severe weather. Mostly unidirectional flow in the mid and upper levels may lead to training of storms, which would likely lead to localized flash flooding. Depending on the model, anywhere from 1.5 to 3 inches of total rainfall is possible Thursday through Friday morning. Considering the extreme PWATS, any storm that does form would be a very proficient rain producer. All this considered, have decided to issue a flash flood watch for the entire area from late tonight through Friday morning. The bulk of the rain is expected to exit the area by dawn on Friday but we can expect unsettled weather to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will take a downward turn tomorrow with the onset of thick cloud cover and heavy rains, with highs in the low 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 No real break in sight from the unsettled weather as models project our area remaining in northwest flow aloft with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary positioned over us over very close by throughout the period. This will bring us daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. These should be scattered in nature most days, although a decent shortwave shown passing through the Ohio Valley may spawn a little more widespread coverage of showers/storms on Saturday and indicated higher PoPs there. The ground should be fairly wet after the short term rainfall so at least isolated flash flooding will remain a concern, at least through the weekend. Otherwise, it will remain warm and humid throughout the period with daytime highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and track mainly east across our area this afternoon and evening, mainly along and ahead of a stalled frontal boundary. Current thinking is that the north and eastern portions of the area will receive the most rainfall through this evening. Tonight, did add in the mention of fog development and vis restriction after 3Z, though exact impacts will largely be dependent on the amount of rain each TAF site receives through this evening. A low pressure system will approach the area from the southwest tonight, bringing widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the area through at least tomorrow afternoon. These rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to variable VIS at the TAF sites, with CIGS degrading. Winds will generally be light and variable, though any stronger showers or thunderstorms could produce some brief gusty conditions. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...JVM/JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM

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