Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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191 FXUS63 KJKL 040603 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 103 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 We continue to see the atmosphere moisten across the TN Valley but we struggle to see that across eastern KY. This should happen over time as we see a more top down approach, but the BL winds remain out of the east which will make this process more difficult. Therefore continue to blend in the consshort which progresses the POPs in slower. That as the suite of CAMs show precip making it into the Lake Cumberland region by 6z to 7z at best. Other edits were more minor for this update. UPDATE Issued at 652 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Starting to moisten up across the TN Valley this hour and showers will continue to move NE toward the region overnight. This as moisture streams north and the moisture begin to lower into the lower levels overnight. Based on downstream obs precip is being seen in areas with around a 7 to 8 kft deck at best. Given the slower progression lowered POPs in the first few hours as better moisture remains to our SW. Otherwise more minor updates to latest obs and trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on Sunday in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A third system, however, is on track to move across the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30 degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow sets up across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Very tricky forecast overnight and into the day tomorrow. A mid/upper level wave is expected to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period, however surface high pressure remains at the surface with a layer of dry air in place in the low levels. IR SAT does show high clouds penetrating eastern KY as the system continues to approach, and should continue to stream across the region overnight. These clouds are expected to thicken and lower, but based on latest trends, this may occur a bit later than originally expected. As of the 6Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions are expected to persist through 12Z at the southern sites KSME and KLOZ, but will quickly deteriorate after this point to MVFR throughout the day as moisture finally overcomes the llvl dry layer, and rain chances set in. This will occur a couple hours later at KJKL and KSJS and closer to 18Z at KSYM. Llvl clouds will linger throughout the upcoming night as well, possibly lowering further to IFR, even as precip chances begin to taper off. Overall, winds should remain light and variable throughout the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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