Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251905 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 205 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SNOW SLATED TO MOVE IN AROUND 00Z IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY JUST AFFECTING THE ADVISORY AREAS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A PAIR OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE MAIN ONE OF CONCERN WILL BE ONE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA LIKELY CAPPING OUR TEMPERATURE CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID TEENS WHILE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR HOLDS OFF ON ITS ARRIVAL INTO KENTUCKY UNTIL AFTER 00Z STILL TARGETING THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATIONS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 09Z FEATURE JUST SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TRACKING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURES WILL LIKELY THROW A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING OFF TO THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS REALLY KEPT OUR LOW TEMPERATURES UP FOR MINS THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE TRENDED THIS FEATURE NORTH FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A DECENT SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EAST KENTUCKY. MODEL PROFILES DO SHOW A DECENT DRY AIR LAYER TO OVERCOME BUT AS EXPERIENCED IN THE PREVIOUS EVENT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE LAYER CAN BE OVERCOME QUITE EFFECTIVELY WITH THE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TAPPING INTO. AS WELL THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENT WILL HAVE A SATURATED LAYER IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS ZONE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS EVENT. THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY THAT KEPT TEMPS WARM MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON AMOUNTS FROM THE EVENT TONIGHT BUT DIURNAL TRENDS AND NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET. THEREFORE...WITH THESE FACTORS...HAVE GONE WITH 10 OR 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS IN THE SOUTH AND THEN GOING HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COLDER AIR. THIS WILL GIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT WITH AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AND WILL PUT AN SPS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS MAY AT LEAST GET UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER RATIOS. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AS PROFILES SEEM TO BE TOO DRY BUT ALSO LACKING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. KEPT AMOUNTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER AN INCH WITH HIGH RATIOS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 427 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NE TO START THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXIT THE REGION MOVING INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THUR AND FRI NIGHT AND HIGHS FRI IN THE 20S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT WITH A BIT OF RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30 NORTH AND AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THEN EYES WILL TURN TO OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THIS WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASE IN POPS WILL ALSO BEGIN PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES AROUND EXACT AMTS AND TRACK OF THIS OVERRUNNING PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SW US STRENGTHENING AND EJECTING NE. THIS WILL BRING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE AND RIGHT NOW BLEND BRINGS BEST POPS FOR TUESDAY. EITHER WAY GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH AND EVEN A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THE FRONT/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...THIS WILL POSE A FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES AND FLOODING PRODUCTS WILL POSSIBLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS WARMUP AND PRECIP EVENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGH CIGS TO DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET BY 02Z IN THE SOUTH AND BY 04Z NORTH WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS ANTICIPATED TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST AND HARDEST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF OF MAIN TAF SITES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF

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