Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230700 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 06Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over eastern West Virginia controlling our weather with clear skies and light winds. On satellite, some thinning high clouds are drifting into north central Kentucky but will likely dissipate before having too much of an effect on temps or sky cover for our CWA through the rest of the night. This setup is a good one for radiational cooling and ridge to valley temperature splits across the area. Temperatures are responding as expected for this situation with readings varying from near 70 degrees on the ridgetops to the lower 60s in the sheltered valleys with a few spots likely in the upper 50s. Dewpoints are fairly uniform across the area - generally in the low 60s while the winds are mainly calm. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the filling of lingering southeastern troughing today in the face of building heights coming east out of the Southern Plains and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bolster heights over Kentucky through the weekend keeping all mid level energy well to the north and east of the region. For this quiet pattern, will continue to follow a mainly persistence based forecast with some adjustment toward the latest consensus model guidance. Sensible weather will keep the summer weather going into extra innings through the weekend with a relatively dry air mass allowing for a fairly large diurnal range each day. Also, late each night some patchy valley fog will develop and become locally dense near the rivers thanks to the longer nights and good radiational conditions under mostly clear skies. Likewise, during the days, plenty of sunshine will send readings into the mid to upper 80s both today and Saturday with some spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Look for afternoon humidity to not be quite as dry today through the weekend as moisture gradually returns for our area. So we can also look for some increasing humidity to add to the afternoon warmth through the weekend. However, changes are in the works... Again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as the starting point for the grids through the evening and the SuperBlend thereafter. Made the bulk of any changes to overnight lows to better capture the point forecast for our ridges and valleys given this pattern. As for PoPs, effectively zeroed them out through 00z Sunday - in line with all MOS guidance. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 The extended period will feature a significant cool down to fall- like temperatures as an upper ridge breaks down and a deep trough moves through the area. At the beginning of the period, the upper ridge will still be in place as a trough develops over the northern plains. By Monday, this upper trough will move into the Great Lakes region, dropping a cold front through Kentucky sometime Monday evening/Tuesday. Models continue to struggle with the details of this system as it moves across our area. The GFS is notably wetter, quicker and develops more convection along the front, whereas the ECMWF is drier and has a weaker associated upper low. While a cool down is still on track for early to mid week, confidence remains low on exact timing and amount of the precipitation and how cool the temperatures will get behind the front. So for now, will keep low precip chances Mon-Wed with temps cooling off into the low 70s for highs Tue-Fri. Overnight lows look to take a significant dip towards the 50 degree mark, though wouldn`t be surprised to see some valleys cool into the upper 40s mid-week
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 An upper level ridge and the continued influence of sfc high pressure will keep mostly clear skies and VFR conditions in place across eastern Kentucky through the period and well beyond. Some IFR, or worse, fog will be seen along the deeper river valleys between 07 and 13z; however, expect the TAF sites to remain unaffected by this, once again. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF/GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.