Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241749 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Have seen a meager cumulus field develop across portions of the Big Sandy region and adjacent Appalachians. Nonetheless, plenty of insolation still looking to send temperatures into the low-mid 80s by rush hour. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The weather of eastern Kentucky will dominated by a ridge of high pressure today and tonight. This weather system will bring well above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions to the area through late tonight. The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. Low and middle level cloud cover will spread across the region late tonight and tomorrow, as an area of low pressure moves out of the south central plains and toward the western Great Lakes region. Warm front associated with this system will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm formation from around dawn tomorrow and through the day on Wednesday. At this time it appears that lift and moisture in the vicinity of this boundary will be limited, so we can expect only isolated to scattered showers and storms in eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures during the period will be well above normal, with highs topping out the 80s both today and Wednesday. Tonights lows will also be quite mild, with minimum readings in the mid to upper 50s expected for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Models are in good agreement for the overall pattern heading into the weekend. A summertime regime will be in place for the local area, with mid/upper level ridging over the southeast ConUS, and the main westerlies to our north and west. We will be close enough to the periphery of the ridge that convective precip can not be ruled out. However, it is more probable further north and west. Have used slight chance pops each period. The ECMWF and GFS show some differences starting late in the weekend. Each has a tropical or subtropical wave which has progressed northwestward to the carolinas, but the GFS then takes it slowly westward, while the ECMWF takes it northward. The result is deep moisture finding its way over our area in the GFS, while the ECMWF keeps the deep moisture to our east. Members of the GFS ensemble also show varying possibilities. Considering the weak features in play and the long time range, confidence in a model solution is very low, and have used a continuation of slight chance pops through the end of the period.
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Vfr conditions remain in the offing through the period. Any leftover afternoon cumulus will dissipate this evening as high-mid clouds begin to move in from the west overnight. Will see scattered to broken decks lower to around 4-5k feet by Wednesday morning, but not currently expecting any degradation to vfr criteria. Increasing cloud cover should mitigate much in the way of fog potential, but could still very well see some patchy fog across a few of the deeper valleys nearer the Virginia state line where surface ridging will reside a tad longer. Winds will remain light at below 10 knots out of the south to southwest.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.