Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050019 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 719 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE NEW FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A DECK OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOTABLE CLEARING IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDS DECREASING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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