Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020211 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 40S TO THE SOUTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER. DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY... BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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