Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151748 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1248 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1248 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Winds have continued to increase early this afternoon and are approaching 35 mph in our north and western zones. With this said, will go ahead and issue a lake wind advisory for the counties that include or border Cave Run Lake, Laurel River Lake, and Lake Cumberland. Will run the headline through 11 pm this evening when the rain should move in with the front. Mixing should die down enough at this point to allow it to drop off. Otherwise, no other changes were made. UPDATE Issued at 1033 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018 A few isolated showers are started to exit eastern Kentucky with a lull in precipitation expected into this afternoon. Additional showers could push through areas north of the Mountain parkway later on today, but moisture and lift is limited through 00z. Thus, nothing more than isolated coverage is expected at this time. Brought down pops across the board today and increased them late tonight with rain expected to move south into the area with the cold front. Winds will be gusty today with some wind gusts up to 35 mph possible, especially in the Lake Cumberland region and bluegrass counties. Should be just shy of our wind advisory criteria, but may consider a lake wind advisory if winds get strong enough. For now, going to stay put and wait to see how things trend into this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 657 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Overall forecast is on track so far this morning. Llvl moisture in place is keeping ongoing drizzle and light rain showers across portions of eastern Kentucky this morning. Expect light precip to continue through much of the morning, which is already reflected in the ongoing forecast. The current combination of cloud cover and precip is keeping temperatures mild and rather steady, so not much to update in the forecast compared to the ongoing conditions. Loaded in the latest observations for winds into the near term forecast as well, which were a bit lighter than forecast, though off and on gusts are ongoing. Expect that as we continue to head into the daytime over the next couple of hours, these SW winds will start to pick up and get more in line with the forecast. Still expecting gusts between 20 and 30 knots in some locations by this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 439 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Southwest flow and a warm front located just to our north has allowed for warm moist air to continue making its way into the state. Most of this moisture is confined to the llvls, leading to patchy light rain and drizzle across much of the CWA this morning. Based on the latest NAM12 forecast soundings, this llvl moist layer could remain in place through much of the day and result in light precip chances, so kept in 30 to 40 pops across much of the CWA. By this afternoon, as temperatures peak near 70 degrees, some drier air will work in near the surface in the south, but clouds will remain in place here. Any drying will be short lived, however, as our attention turns north of Kentucky. A surface low pressure system will be tracking northeast just north of the Ohio River this afternoon, making its way into New England by tonight. From this low pressure system will span a cold front, which is expected to reach the Ohio River during the first part of the overnight tonight, then quickly transitioning southeast across the CWA during the overnight hours, finally exiting Friday morning. The global models are in better agreement about the precip associated with this cold frontal passage, though there is still some discrepancies about the amount of QPF. There is less agreement, however, in the CAMS for both extent and placement. Sticking with a blend of both CAMS and global models, this shows precip starting to impact our northern CWA by this afternoon. A band of moderate to heavy rain is expected to set up along and just ahead of the cold front overnight, aided by the moist SW flow in place. It appears that the heaviest rainfall associated with this band will remain along the Ohio River and points north overnight, with Fleming county probably seeing the highest rainfall for our CWA. As the frontal system transitions SE into our CWA we will lose some of the highest QPF tonight into Friday, though moderate to heavy rainfall at times is still expected across the region 0.75. While Fleming county could see around between 0.75 and 1 inch from this afternoon through the first part of Friday, the rest of the CWA is expecting generally between half an inch and 3 quarters of an inch. Given the ongoing flooding concerns across eastern Kentucky over past days, it is possible that this rainfall, especially during heavier showers, could lead to further isolated flooding concerns. However, the heaviest rainfall with this system will be affecting the far northern CWA, which was the least affected from this last event. And elsewhere, 0.75 inches or less of rainfall throughout the course of a day is not going to be enough to really impact most of the rivers or cause widespread flooding/flash flooding concerns. ILN did decide to go with a flood watch north of us, joining the ongoing flood watch by RLX, but they will also be in the heavier axis of rain. Given the above mentioned conditions, did not think impacts would justify issuing a flood watch for our CWA, so opted out. The cold front will quickly shift southeast of the CWA by Friday afternoon, with drier northerly flow taking hold at the surface. This will effectively cut off the moisture flow into the region, and subsequently the precip chances as we head into Friday evening. Highs on Friday will be much cooler than that of today, generally in the 50s across the board. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 535 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018 An overall wet and mild period is expected. A generalized upper trough should persist over the western CONUS, with flow over the southeast CONUS tracing back to the subtropical east Pacific. In the lower levels, Gulf of Mexico moisture will make periodic surges northward. One such intrusion will be on the way out at the start of the period as a cold front sinks through the southeast CONUS. A few light showers could be lingering into Friday evening in the southeast part of the forecast area, but will give way to dry weather as high pressure passes by to our north on Friday night. The front and overrunning moisture will make a push back to the north on Saturday as a broad low amplitude trough passes through the upper level flow. This will bring another round of rain. It will already move out on Saturday night, and dry weather will make another brief return for Sunday. The longwave pattern amplifies early in the week, and northward flow off the Gulf increases again. This will bring another potential for rain Sunday night into Monday. The amplified pattern will result in another cold front slowly pushing across KY Tuesday and Wednesday, with still more rain potential. Heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out with some of these episodes, but there is a lack of confidence as to when/where it would occur. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Strong southwest winds will be the main aviation concern into tonight with wind gusts up to 30 knots expected. MVFR cigs will also continue through the afternoon before lower to near IFR late tonight as a cold front pushes through tonight. Widespread rain is expected with the front tonight as well, which will generate some fog concerns by dawn on Friday. The rain will likely persist through the end of the TAF forecast period along with the lower ceilings. Finally a wind shift to the northwest will be seen late tonight as the front pushes through.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052- 060-079-080-083>085-106.
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&& $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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