Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 102146 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 546 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPAWNED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS THEN POPPED UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY FOLLOWED THE OUTFLOW DIRECTION. ONE SUCH AREA WAS ALONG THE ROCKCASTLE AND MADISON COUNTY BORDERS...WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED A DECENT RAIN SHOWER...AND THEN REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE FAR EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE HOURS NOW. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS SHOWER IS FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...WITH ITS OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO MAKE SURE ISOLATED COVERAGE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS SHOWER...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AND BRING WITH IT A DRIER...HOTTER AIR MASS FROM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO SUMMER TIME LEVELS BY TOMORROW UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. DESPITE IT BEING MID JULY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR EASTERN KY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 IN GENERAL WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS KSJS...AND A SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR VSBYS AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT FOG. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT AS THIS MORNING SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING TONIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO GENERATING A BROKEN LINE OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK FOR ALL OUR TERMINALS...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXISTS FOR KJKL AND KSJS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WHERE A MID LEVEL CAP IS OBVIOUSLY WEAKER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY

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