Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210743 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 343 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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