Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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824 FXUS63 KJKL 260013 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 810 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations and trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. High pressure centered to the north and northeast of the area tonight, mostly clear to clear skies, and light winds should set the stage for valley frost formation or if not, lows near freezing for much of valleys in southeastern KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 20z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. This is providing mostly clear skies, aside from some high clouds drifting through from the northwest. The cool high to the north and good sunshine yielded temps ranging from the lower 70s south to low 60s north this afternoon. Dewpoints, meanwhile, were able to mix down into the low to mid 30s most places, but many spots did see some 20s. The winds were generally light and variable this afternoon. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all bring a developing trough into the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. This will be accompanied by a batch of energy passing through the Ohio valley into Thursday morning. The GFS is slight stronger with this feature than the ECMWF and Canadian, but actual differences are relatively small. Accordingly, a general model blend was preferred with a lean toward the HRRR and NAM12 and significant consideration given to the dry air aloft (and co-op MOS) that has been resulting in a larger than forecast diurnal range of late for the area. Sensible weather will feature another cool and mostly clear night with light to calm winds. This will set the stage for chilly low temperatures and likely areas of frost in the deeper valleys. Patchy dense fog will again be found near the rivers late, as well, helping keep those spots from seeing much in the way of frost. The frost is anticipated to be a bit more widespread than last night so have issued a frost advisory for our eastern 2/3rds where radiational cooling will be maximized. More sunshine and winds switching to the southwest will mean a warm day Wednesday with low to mid 70s anticipated for highs. Attention will then turn to the, unfortunately drying, cold front inbound for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Despite the withering of the model QPF with this, there will be enough elevated instability and dynamics aloft to yield a stray thunderstorm or two for mainly northwest parts of the area overnight into Thursday morning. Have included this in the grids and HWO. Again started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent on Wednesday night revolving around terrain differences, as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon Wednesday. As for PoPs - did bring them up into the slight chance range Wednesday night - a bit higher than consensus MOS guidance - as the front starts to press into the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 An upper level trough axis will be swinging through the Great Lakes at the start of the period, as a surface low tracks across the Ohio Valley. An associated cold frontal boundary will move through the area Thursday afternoon, bringing scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder. The remainder of the extended period will likely remain mild and dry with high pressure parked over the southeastern CONUS. High pressure will build into the region by Friday morning, allowing for valley temps to drop off into the upper 30s/low 40s. However, a quick return of warm air will take place Friday as the upper ridge builds into the southeastern US. With the return flow in place, temperatures should rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday afternoon. Well-above normal temperatures are anticipated on Saturday with most locations reaching the upper 70s, possibly eeking out 80 degrees in spots. If we hit 80 degrees here at the Jackson Weather Office, we will tie for the most 80 degree days in October on record. As high pressure gradually shifts towards the Atlantic Ocean Sunday through Tuesday, conditions will be dry as high temperatures reach the mid and upper 70s each day with lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. Tuesday may be another day that afternoon highs reach 80 degrees. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be experienced through the period. Some patchy valley fog is expected from 5Z to 14Z along the rivers, but this should not impact the TAF sites. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower ahead of a cold front late in the period, but only high clouds and some mid clouds are expected.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ052-060- 069-080-085>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.