Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210630 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 130 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 130 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 No significant changes. We are seeing temperatures in our western zones leveling out or coming up with the gradient increasing. Temperatures still falling in the far eastern valleys, so have lowered another degree. All in all, forecast is in great shape. UPDATE Issued at 1008 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 With cloud cover only consisting of a few strands of cirrus and the tightening pressure gradient still west of Interstate 75, opted to lower temperatures a couple of degrees across the valleys of far eastern Kentucky. May see these begin to warm or at least hold steady later tonight as increasing wind speeds allow for some mixing. UPDATE Issued at 717 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Cirrus across the higher terrain has mostly exited the Lake Cumberland region, but more will be on the approach later tonight. Prior to then, will have to monitor valley temperatures dropping off. Still expecting valleys in the Lake Cumberland region and Bluegrass to mix out later tonight as south/southwest winds increase out ahead of the eastern flank of a surface trough currently entering western Kentucky. Eastern valleys will keep cooler temperatures locked in place through later tonight or potentially early Tuesday morning with later arrival of the increasing pressure gradient.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Mid/upper level pattern amplifies through the short term as energy drops southeastward out of western Canada. This will result in a deepening trough dropping into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. At the surface high pressure shifts off to the east as a cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon. At present models keep all shower activity to the north of our forecast area with only some additional cloud cover and a wind shift to announce the passage of the frontal boundary. Winds will increase ahead of the frontal system Tuesday to between 10 and 15 mph. Higher gusts to around 25 mph should be expected as well. Otherwise the short term is pretty much a temp forecast. Looking for one more night of cold air in our eastern valley locations. Gradient winds will be increasing tonight and all signs point to our western valleys mixing out through the overnight. Consequently and with support from guidance went warmer in the west. Highs Tuesday will depend on the amount of cloud cover we realize. But the heart of our CWA and points eastward may manage to tweak out a high temperature of around 60. Unfortunately winds will make it seem a little cooler than that. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 From Wednesday through next Monday there is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern which will feature a mean trough in the eastern U.S. and ridging in the west. This will result in overall below normal temperatures for eastern KY, and with limited moisture available dry weather will continue to prevail. The long term portion of the forecast begins with colder air once again filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. Surface high pressure will also be building into the area, with dry but chilly weather for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. As the high shifts to the east on Friday, warmer air will begin making its way into our area in advance of the next cold front. Moisture will be limited with this front, but there will be a slight chance of a few showers in the far the northern part of the forecast area Friday night or early Saturday. After the frontal passage Saturday, colder air will spread back across the area for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the end of the forecast period. Winds will increase out of the southwest, mainly after daybreak, as the gradient increases ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible. Gusts will subside this evening. As the front pushes through late tonight, some low clouds may develop into the area.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...KAS

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