Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282253 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AS OF 2230Z A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EAST OF I-75. OBSERVATIONS WITH THE LINE HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY JUST GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL. MOST GUSTS WITH THIS LINE AND BASICALLY THE FRONT HAVE BEEN UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE TRENDS WITH THIS LINE HAS HAD IT SHEARED QUITE A BIT LEAVING COVERAGE TO BE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS HOLD ONTO A STALLING OF THE FRONT AND BASED ON TRENDS...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS CONCEPT AND KEEP PRECIP HANGING AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE UPDATED THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW PERIOD. SKY COVER ALSO NEEDED ADDRESSED FOR THIS UPDATE BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE SENT A NEW ZFP TO ADDRESS THE LESSENING OF POPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE IF SHOWER ACTIVITY SPIKES AS THE FRONT PUSHES AGAINST THE EASTERN RANGES BORDERING VA.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS IT MOVES...IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KY AND SHOULD BE MAKING IT THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE NON/EXCLUSIVE TO THE RAIN SHOWERS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL NIGHTFALL /LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/ AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WIND...THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE OUT THERE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING OUT...AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH WEAKER AND SCATTERED IN NATURE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED OR MODELED. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT MUCH OF EASTERN KY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NE CANADA OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE LEFT UNDER A STRONG TROUGHING PATTERN. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH NW FLOW USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS FROM THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CANADA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE TOMORROW. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MODERATED TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE RANGE...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGREES ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS TO DROP OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED AS A SHARP TROUGH PLUNGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STRONG UL VORT EMBEDDED IN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP AND COLD...IT WILL LIKELY BRING A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STRONG RIDGING MOVES IN QUICKLY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE UL VORT QUICKLY DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR CWA. THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE VORT SKIRTS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. A STRONGER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE THE LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS QUITE LOW OF ONE MOVING NEAR A TAF SITE. MOST CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. LOCATIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE NIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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