Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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281 FXUS63 KJKL 270238 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Have updated to blend late evening obs into the forecast grids, with no substantive change to the overall forecast. UPDATE Issued at 841 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Convection over the JKL forecast area has mostly died out, and there are no existing convective systems lined up for us, and no indications of anything organized during the night. Won`t rule out some activity popping up, but it would seem the probability is low, and the POP has been dropped to slight chance category. UPDATE Issued at 427 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A small convective system is tailing down into our northern counties late this afternoon. Extrapolation takes it eastward largely north of the mountain parkway, and the POP has been increased to 60 percent there in a pre-first period before 00z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 The frontal boundary stalled along the Ohio River will remain the primary feature of concern through tomorrow. Storms along this boundary early this afternoon are showing signs of organization as they track eastward. This cluster of storms is expected to track across the Gateway Region of northeast Kentucky later this afternoon with outflows probably generating additional scattered showers/storms further to the south. PWATs are analyzed above 2 inches across our northern counties, and are near record highs according to latest Mesoscale Precip Discussion from WPC. Thus these storms will produce torrential rainfall and any training of cells will pose a threat for isolated flash flooding. A severe storm or two is possible, mainly over our northern counties, with damaging winds the primary severe weather hazard. Convection should exhibit a strong diurnal trend again and diminish quickly after sunset before firing up again with daytime heating tomorrow afternoon. Models want to nudge the front a little to the south by tomorrow so anticipate scattered storms developing over our area, instead of to our north as has happened today. Another warm and muggy day is anticipated tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and afternoon heat indices 95 to 100. A shortwave will track northeast out of the western Gulf on Wednesday forcing a wave of low pressure to develop on the front to our southwest. This will move into western Tennessee late Wednesday night and bring a slug of Gulf moisture northeastward into central and eastern Kentucky forcing an increase in showers and storms by late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Unsettled weather will continue through the forecast period as upper level troughiness remains over Eastern Kentucky. The operational GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement aloft with this overall pattern. The main concern during the long term is the potential phasing of northern and southern stream waves Thursday into Friday. The initial wave from the Mississippi Valley is progged to lift northeast through our area Thursday, followed shortly by the northern stream wave from the Great Lakes. The GFS model is slightly quicker and stronger with these waves and tries to phase them as they move through the area. This system looks to exit Kentucky late Friday but a series of upper level waves passing by will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the remainder of the period. At the surface, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for substantial rainfall will be Thursday into Friday as a surface low, coinciding with the passing of the previously mentioned upper level waves, moves across our area. Model soundings on Thursday are skinny and saturated from the surface up through the upper levels, with PWATS nearing 2.3 inches. This would be a record value for our area, per ILN climatology. These types of soundings are indicative of heavy rain producers and flash flooding. Additionally, winds through the profile are unidirectional, with training of showers and thunderstorms a decent possibility. There is also potential for some of the storms to become strong with CAPE values in excess of 2K. That being said, rain and thunderstorms will be possible with this system beginning Thursday morning and continuing into Friday evening. Saturday through Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm activity should be limited to the afternoon and evening hours each day. Afternoon temperatures throughout the long term will generally remain in the low to mid 80s thanks to afternoon shower chances each day. Expect morning lows near climatological normals, in the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Convective precip which was over the JKL forecast area has mostly died out, and it doesn`t look like anything organized is in store overnight. The most significant rainfall during the late afternoon and evening was over the northeastern part of the area. This will favor more extensive fog at sites such as KSYM & KSJS. However, any of the TAF sites could drop to IFR overnight. Fog will dissipate after sunrise and give way to VFR, but with daytime heating and a frontal boundary in the area, scattered showers/thunderstorms should pop up again and reach peak coverage by late afternoon. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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