Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 162230 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY ON THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH DRY DEWPOINTS...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES DID REBOUND FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS MOST PLACES AS THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS MAINLY INVOLVED TAKING THEM DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS. ALSO...MADE CORRESPONDING DIURNAL CURVE CHANGES GIVEN OUR LIKELY QUICK DROP OFF IN THE VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. WITH THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE NPW FOR THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING AND REISSUED THE HWO ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. THE GRID CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS THIS CAN REALLY EFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING AGAIN...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGES STAYING A BIT WARMER. THE RIDGES WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO SOME FROST...HOWEVER NOT THE HARD FREEZE THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 70 TOMORROW. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND AND CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. SOME VALLEY FROST IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT ESPECIALLY INTENSE OR FAST AS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES PULL NORTHWARD. EARLY IN THE FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL SPLIT WITH ENERGY TO MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...FORMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR AREA IS LEFT IN THE MIDDLE WITH LITTLE TO SHOW WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WITH CORE OF WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. AS A RESULT OUR WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...REACHING THE COMMONWEALTH AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS FIRST OF THE WEEK SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. AS SUCH AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER COLD AIR MASS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE LARGEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH IN OUR WESTERN VALLEYS TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND SHEARED OUT ENERGY ALOFT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER WEATHER IS GENERALLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SHORTWAVE AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. ATTM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONG AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED BEFORE... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GREIF

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