Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291926 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME...LIKELY PERSISTING PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A BRIEF LULL MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL...SEVERE THREAT MAY HINDER ON BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL WITH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8KFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WHILE ECMWF BRINGS IN OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL PLAN TO STICK WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WEAK AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME CHILLY AIR...AND PERHAPS SOME FROST TO SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY WEEKS END AND MAY BRING US BACK TO A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE BKN TO OVC AT 22 TO 25K. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOW OVER TIME...AND WE SHOULD SEE CIGS OF 5 TO 6K BY AROUND 11Z TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 7Z TONIGHT...WITH MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN BY 14Z ON SATURDAY. THE CULPRIT OF THE EXPECTED WET WEATHER WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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