Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250533 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER OVERALL DECREASE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE EXPECTED LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE ADDED WIND. THUS...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE LOWS A TAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WEST AND KEEPING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE OUT THE NPW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS. THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH... TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL- LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN. USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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