Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 200 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 200 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Issued an update to the forecast to trim back pops across eastern Kentucky as the upper low tracks up the east coast. Also lowered high temps a few degrees as temps remained steady from this morning. In fact, most locations reached their high temperature this morning. Otherwise, northerly to northwesterly winds will keep an upslope component across the area with the left over wrap around moisture. So will keep extensive cloudiness and a slight chance of shower activity through tomorrow morning. UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Current conditions across the area as of 1530z features heavy banded precipitation still streaming into far eastern Kentucky through this morning. The bulk of the rain remains over the east but seems to be coming to an end in the western areas. Have updated the pops for this trend. Also mentioned a minor flooding threat in the eastern areas in the HWO as some areas have received up to 2 inches in the past 6 hours. As well, with the northerly winds, rainfall, and cloud cover, temps will be pretty steady through the day today. Have sent out a new forecast with this update. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Forecast on track this morning. Numerous rain showers still expected to affect eastern Kentucky through out the day today. These will begin to taper off overnight and Tuesday, until the last of the rain is finally gone by early Tuesday afternoon. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 The general model consensus is calling for an unusually deep area of low pressure to continue moving eastward across the Tennessee valley tonight, and eventually across the Carolinas and then offshore Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As the low rotates across the TN valley tonight and during the day Monday, we can expect to see numerous light to moderate rain showers moving across the area. The rain will taper off very slowly today and tonight, and should be exiting eastern Kentucky by late Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts across far southeastern Kentucky could still lead to significant rises on creeks and streams, and perhaps isolated instances of minor flooding through late Monday morning. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than what we saw over the weekend, but will still be above normal for the time of year today and tomorrow. Highs today and Tuesday are expected to max out in the lower 50s both days. Tonights lows should only fall to around 40, with ongoing precipitation and extensive cloud cover acting to moderate things a bit in that regard. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 An amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS through the end of the week. An upper level low will be moving from the central Plains into the Great Lakes through the middle of the week, eventually establishing broader troughing east of the Rockies as it merges into troughing already established across southeastern Canada. Broad cyclonic flow will then dominate across the eastern half of the CONUS through the end of the week, with a much colder and drier air mass remaining in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Tuesday night will feature mostly clear skies initially as a short wave ridge axis moves through aloft. This will allow for valleys to decouple and likely dip down into the mid 30s, while ridges stay around 10 degrees warmer. Stronger return flow will be ongoing into Wednesday, as deep surface low pressure passes by to our northwest and north. Gusty south to southwest winds will allow for highs to return to around the 60 degree mark one last time. A few sprinkles/light rain showers will be possible as the attendant cold front moves through the region. Several short wave troughs will then move through the area at times through the rest of the week, bringing periodic bouts of light precipitation. Pops have come up for Thursday, however, temperatures will still be warm enough for a rain/snow mix and QPF looks limited. Beyond Thursday, cold air aloft will support mainly flurries/light snow showers at times. Moisture continues to look limited and the progged low level flow remains more westerly, less than ideal for upslope enhancement. Highs from Friday through Sunday will average in the 30s, with lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Current conditions across the area feature the swath of rainfall associated with the upper low finally lifting northeast up the east coast as it exits eastern Kentucky. Rainfall will slowly exit the area through the afternoon. However, northerly flow and continued wrap around moisture will keep IFR and below cigs through the rest of the TAF period. Expect winds to remain northerly to northwest at 10 to 20 knots adding to the lingering cloudiness due to upslope. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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