Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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832 FXUS63 KJKL 220759 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 High pressure remains positioned from New England down to the Tennessee Valley. Valley fog has set in across eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies. Temperatures currently range from the mid to upper 60s across the area. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will expand northeast into the Great Lakes region through the short term. This will keep above normal temperatures as well as mostly clear skies in place across eastern Kentucky. Highs today and Saturday will average in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the 60 to 65 degree range. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Surface high pressure will remain in place across eastern Kentucky through much of the extended in conjunction with a weak ridge of high pressure aloft. This will promote mostly clear and calm conditions. Southerly flow in the mid and upper levels to start out the extended period will also continue the trend of above normal temps, with highs expected to be in the mid and upper 80s from Sunday through midweek. By Wednesday, winds will become more northerly as heights begin to lower across the state as a longwave troughing pattern moves towards the region. While conditions will remain dry, this may help temps cool a couple degrees or so compared to previous days. On Thursday, a surface cold front is expected to approach and traverse the CWA from the NW. This will bring an increase in clouds, cooler temps in the upper 70s for the afternoon, and also the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately models are not in good agreement with the extent of precip across the region this far out in the forecast period, with the GFS bringing a prefrontal band across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening, and the ECWMF shows the front dissolving with no precip affecting the region. Given the uncertainties this far out, stuck with a blend of the two, which keeps generally slight chance pops across the CWA to finish out the forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Fog will bring LIFR or worse conditions to the river valleys through 13z. Similar to last night, have hit SYM and SME the hardest, with the ridges likely only seeing temporary MVFR visibility restrictions at worst. VFR conditions will prevail after 13z for the most locations, with some scattered cumulus ranging from 3 to 5k feet agl developing during the day. Winds will average less than 5 kts through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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