Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 410 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 07z sfc analysis shows a low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. This brought strong to severe thunderstorms to the area during the evening hours. Now the bulk of these initial showers and storms have moved off to the east while a few lighter ones trail back toward the system`s cold front now pressing through western Kentucky. Conditions remain quite mild overnight as the moist environment, south to southwest breezes, and overcast conditions are supporting temperatures in the mid 50s - or just a degree or two higher than the dewpoints. Patchy fog is also noted in the wake of the more steady rainfall that cleared out earlier. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a trough passing through Kentucky this morning as it moves off to the East Coast by evening. This will be followed by rising heights and broad ridging through the mid part of the country tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next in a series of deep troughs will be moving through the Four Corners region. This trough will break northeast toward the High Plains on Wednesday with the timing and placement similar among the models - though the GFS is coming in weaker than the ECMWF at 00z Thursday. Downstream, this trough, will help to pump up the ridge over Kentucky with energy staying well to the north of our area. Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature a cloudy day with near normal temperatures as the typical diurnal rise is hampered by west to northwest winds and cold advection. Scattered to isolated showers will be the rule today with a diminishing trend by afternoon as support moves off to the east. Plenty of low level moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy into tonight limiting terrain distinctions and supporting just some patchy valley fog towards Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a bit warmer of a day - helped by a late day return of southeast winds and also some sunshine - though a nearby front and lower thicknesses will keep a lid on this warmth. Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for the grids with some minor, spot adjustments made to temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, have tamped them down faster than the guidance today with low QPF and afternoon drying expected. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Mild conditions will return early in the period ahead of another shortwave trough that will push into the region on Thursday. This will send afternoon highs on Thursday well into the 70s. Moisture will also be on the increase with a few isolated showers or storms possible late in the day. Better forcing will slide east Thursday night and Friday with widespread showers. The wave will be on top of eastern Kentucky on Friday and will yield some instability leading to a small chance for a few storms. The whole system will exit Friday night with rain showers exiting the area. Most of the weekend is setting up dry as a strong surface ridge slides by just to the north. Another wave will take aim on the area early next week, but still some uncertainty on timing of this next wave with models quite a bit off. Either way, active pattern will continue. In addition, mild conditions will continue through the weekend and into next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 Although a passing shower will still be possible through dawn, ceilings will gradually lower through the night - likely down to IFR levels, as winds shift from the southwest to west northwest behind a cold front moving through. Look for ceilings to marginally improve later today. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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