Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182302 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 702 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOWERED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. ALSO TOOK OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER OUT AS NONE HAS DEVELOPED ALL DAY AND THE MODELS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THEIR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THE ONLY THUNDER IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A WEAK FRONT IS STILL QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO WV...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WITH IT. A WEST EAST ORIENTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TN MS BORDER. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS KY WILL NECESSITATE CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE BEST RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KY TONIGHT. WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THIS VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IL AND INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER/MID LEVEL GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MAKE A BEE LINE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE BURGEONING RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING ITS MARCH TO THE COAST AND DRAG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS ENERGY ROUNDS ITS TOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...THE BY THEN QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THUS WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE AUGMENTED BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF TRUE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS DESPITE THE INCREASED HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF RAIN DECREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT...BUT THE POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED. IN ADDITION...SHOULD THE RIDGE EXERT A STRONGER INFLUENCE BY SHIFTING JUST A BIT MORE EAST WE MAY BE IN FOR EVEN HOTTER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE 0Z ECMWF ADVERTISING H850 TEMPS UP AROUND 22C TO 24C...THE POSSIBLY EXISTS THAT WE MIGHT SEE SOME OF OUR HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY EVENING. AS THERE IS SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE TAF STATIONS WITH VLIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING. THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z TO FINALLY BURN OFF. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH VFR TOMORROW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JJ

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