Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301046 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS... THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST... MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...KAS

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