Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301923 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE OF GEORGIA AND TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE BEING PULLED NNE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT...PULLING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY UNDER SW FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOME OF THESE RETURNS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AS WELL...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THE BEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT BENIGN...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS OF IF IT RAINS OR NOT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS/ TO LINGER AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT ENOUGH OF A SURFACE INVERSION FORMING THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF VALLEY FOG IN FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE PATCHY AT THIS TIME. IF A LOCATION DOES RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY FIZZLE OUT JUST NE OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND STRETCH FROM THE GULF COAST...UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...THIS FEATURE WILL WORK WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT THAT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...THERE IS NO GOOD TEMP GRADIENTS OR FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION...AND THERE IS A GOOD CAP IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING MANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINS. AND ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE REGAINS CONTROL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS POISED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM AT TIMES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BARING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...WE WILL LIKELY COMPLETE A TWO WEEK STRETCH WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS DRY SPELL...FORECAST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE MERCURY LIKELY REACHING AROUND 90 EACH DAY. ON THE FLIPSIDE...THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF EASTERN KY. FROM THESE CLOUDS WE ARE SEEING RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD SIGNIFY RAIN. HOWEVER...SO FAR...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN ELEVATED AND HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME WHO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO/. DON/T WANT TO RULE OUT RAIN COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF COVERAGE AT THIS POINT MAKES IT HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR EVEN IF A SPECIFIC TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE STILL POINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z DESPITE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG AT EACH TAF SITE...SO JUST TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR AT THIS TIME. BY TOMORROW...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS TODAY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING AND A DIURNAL CU DECK SETTING UP ALONG THE MVFR/VFR ZONE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JMW

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