Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 090756 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING. THE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO AROUND 60 BOTH AFTERNOONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER AND IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO WAYNE COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY EVENING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA...IT WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED AND WET THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS THE COLD AIR AND THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE BLENDED TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...HOWEVER DID NUDGE THE TEMPS TOWARD THE RAW ECMWF AND THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TOPOGRAPHY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION LATELY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DRY SPELL ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED AN HOUR WINDOW OF PREVAILING SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE THREAT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...KAS

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