Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010541 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 141 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS AND TO ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WOULD ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO BE SPOTTY BUT CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THIS...ALSO UPDATED THE LATEST OBS. FOR THE POP ADJUSTMENT...SENT OUT A NEW ZFP. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTION NOW OVER MIDDLE TN COULD IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD DAWN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KY AND FROM WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO ELLIOTT COUNTY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK REGION OF MO/AR AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION. EARLIER RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAD NOT HANDLED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALL THAT WELL. HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRR MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE...WHICH HAS A MIN IN ACTIVITY DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RESURGENCE TOWARD 9Z...OR 5 AM WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL KY AND COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC LOW ROLLING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH ITS COLD FRONT SETTLING DEEPER INTO KENTUCKY. THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY HEATED UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HELPING TO FUEL THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL THE ORIGINAL ONES...THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOW BEEN WORKED OVER. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RAIN COOLED AIR IN THE FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS VARY FROM SOUTH TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN STORMS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STARTING TO CLOSE OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE AGGRESSIVELY SOUTH NAM. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TRANSITION AFFECTING EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES LATER IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE HRRR WEIGHED HEAVIEST EARLY ON. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A LULL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY DUE TO THE WEAK SFC LOW AND CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE PCPN WILL WIND DOWN LATER MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG. CERTAINLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ITS ARRIVAL BACK TO THE NORTH LATER MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE CWA. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP RATHER HIGH BUT IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD...IT APPEARS NOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW...TUESDAY MAY FEATURE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE COOLER SURFACE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDY SKIES (MORE TYPICAL OF FALL)...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO REAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THE WEAK WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES ON WHEN WEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT AND HOW THIS IMPACTS OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...TRAILING OFF AT NIGHT. BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY WERE TO LOWER HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE WILL COMPOUND THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP AN OVERALL PREDOMINANT LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY AS CONVECTION FIRES AGAIN ALONG THE AND AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT JLK...LOZ...AND SJS TO REMAIN IN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SME AND SYM MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WOULD RISE TO AT LEAST SOME MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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