Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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716 FXUS63 KJKL 081516 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1016 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING. ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111- 114-116. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118- 120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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