Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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638 FXUS63 KJKL 202131 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 531 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Hourly pops have been increased slightly on the western and southwestern fringe of the CWA generally for locations nearer to or to the west of Interstate 75 to the isolated range. Activity over portions of the Bluegrass region and Central KY could survive into this region or the outflows from this could lead to at least a shower developing prior to sunset. This area has higher sfc dewpoints on average and PW is closer to the 1.4 to 1.5 inch rain in this area and this area lies closer to the PW gradient. Any activity should wane with the loss of daytime heating.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Thursday night. MCS activity to our northwest may throw some debris cloudiness overhead from time to time, but dry air in place over east Kentucky should keep any precip just to our west. This dry air, with dewpoints noted as low as the mid and upper 50s in a few locations this afternoon, will allow temperatures tonight to fall back into the 60s. Highs tomorrow should warm to around 90, but again with bearable humidity levels. Models then indicate our low level flow veers to more of a southerly direction Thursday night, which will set us up for higher dewpoint air to advect in for Friday and beyond. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 EDT wed JUL 20 2016 The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a persistent mid/upper level ridge across the southern United States. This will result in hot humid weather into the weekend. Heat index values during the afternoon are expected to be around 100 in some locations from Friday into Sunday, and possibly on Monday. A series of short waves will move west to east along the northern periphery of the ridge, with the most significant wave early next week. This particular wave and associated surface low will help push a cold front towards the area Monday, and it is on Monday that the best chance for thunderstorms will exist. With the ridge in our area being somewhat suppressed next week, temperatures will remain above average, but not as warm as this weekend. A couple of items of note: Timing of any specific short wave remains uncertain, and there will be at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period. The best chance as supported by a blended model approach appears to be Monday. Another area of uncertainty is the afternoon temperature forecast for the weekend, as maximum temperatures will depend on how much debris cloudiness moves across the area from any upstream convection, and how much convection occurs locally. Generally the model blends are indicating slightly lower, but still well above average high temperatures for the weekend, as compared to our current forecast maximums. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 VFR conditions can be expected throughout the forecast period with high pressure in place. Patchy valley fog will develop tonight. However, with drier air in place, there should be less coverage than there was this morning so will keep it out of the TAFS at this time. Winds will be light from the north/northeast. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...ABE

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