Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221950 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350| PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Quiet weather expected through the short term making it basically a temperature and fog forecast. Persistence will be a decent forecaster through the period and tended to follow that line of thinking while working the grids. Each night should see the development of fog, mainly in the valley areas and near sources of water but with slight improvements each night. Temperatures will remain warm in general, especially afternoon highs. Increasingly drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 331 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 A surface high pressure and upper level high will remain in control of the sensible weather for much of the long range period. However, the upper level high will begin breaking down as we move toward midweek. Then a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley but the upper level ridging will still be in place. This will likely aid in mitigating much if any precipitation By Thursday, with isolated showers possible mainly far southeast. The other issue in seeing precipitation will be the attendant low pressure will be northeast of Maine by late Wednesday. Despite model divergence by the end of the week, we do stand the chance of seeing some much cooler air filter into the region behind this cold front. This could lead to a 15 to 20 degree lowering of afternoon high temperatures by Friday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 We are in a stable weather pattern where each day will be similar to the one before/after. That being said, afternoon CU field will dissipate as sunset approaches. Overnight fog will develop once again. Overall each night has seen slight improvements in conditions from the previous, exception being the river valley locations. Our more elevated terminals, JKL and LOZ should continue to see a gradual improvement from night to night. SYM seems to be more prone to the effects of local valley fog when it is dense enough, similar to SJS. Considering the pattern, tended to stay closer to persistence for CIGS and VSBYS. It was nice to see model guidance close to that line of thinking, adding at least a little confidence to the effects of overnight fog. Went with some LIFR VSBYS at SYM and SJS. SJS was the only site to pick up LIFR CIGS. Expect JKL and LOZ to remain in VFR territory for the most part. Winds will in general be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.