Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270600 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 100 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 PER RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR/SREF GUIDANCE...THE LIGHT SNOW BANDS THAT AFFECTED THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE OF THE BREADTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT LIKELY NOT LEAVE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING BEHIND IN ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER... ALREADY COLD ROADS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS INTO DAWN TUESDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS/WX AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS/BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 NO CRUCIAL CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ON TRACK...FRESHENED THEM UP WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AS WELL AS THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW EARLIER THIS EVENING...SHOWING AN EVENTUAL LESSENING AS WE HEADED INTO THE CURRENT PERIOD. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE LIKELY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE SW CWA...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WE HAD OVER CENTRAL KY EARLIER. THAT BEING SAID...ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS A NOTICEABLE LACK IN INITIALIZATION...AND FURTHERMORE IT IS SHOWING UNLIKELY ARTIFACTS AS THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN. NOT PUTTING MUCH FAITH INTO THE HRRR AT THIS POINT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP. THE LATEST NAM12 AND ECMWF ALSO PICK UP ON THIS SECOND BAND...THOUGH THE ECMWF LIKELY HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON QPF TOTALS. THIS WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7 AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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