Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281845 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 FLURRIES CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SE KENTUCKY UNDER NW FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND DECLINING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY REMAINING FLURRIES TO BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...JUST ADDED IN ONE MORE HOUR OF FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT IS LINGERING ACROSS HARLAN AND LETCHER. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WELL REFLECTED ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO TO THESE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WORK EAST ENOUGH TO CUT THEM OFF. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOW 20S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING EAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL THEN BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW NEIGHBORING WFOS TO N...E AND W...AND LOWER PROBABILTIES SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN NO MENTION OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AND BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING MORE EASTWARD IN FLATTER FLOW. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR OUR REGION...BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WPC NOTES THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS...BUT WPC AND WE ARE NOT YET COMMITTED TO THE FULLY PHASED ECMWF SOLUTION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 THE LAST OF THE MORNING FLURRIES ARE EXITING THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN COLD BUT DRY N TO NW WINDS INTO THE REGION. WHILE SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE NOW...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ABOVE THE VFR LEVEL AND SCATTER OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS /NAMELY KSYM/ ARE SEEING A FEW GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...BUT EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN AROUND 15KTS OR BELOW AND QUICKLY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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