Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271730 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The forecast continues to be on track so far today. An update was issued an hour or so ago to remove any outdated wording from the zone forecast text product, and to freshen up the hourly grids with the latest observational data. Aside from that, no other changes to the forecast were required. UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Just sent out an updated zone forecast text product to remove mention of fog. Outside of a few small areas in our far east, fog has dissipated across the area. Any remaining wisps of fog should be completely gone by 1015 or 1030 am. The rest of the forecast was on track. Will issue another update around noon today to remove any remaining stale wording from the forecast text product and to freshen up the hourly grids with the latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Forecast appears on track early this morning. Made a few tweaks to grids for hourly trends. No other changes to the forecast package ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Short wave trough moving across the Northern Tier and eventually through the Great Lakes will flatten the mid/upper level ridging in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term. A storm complex currently rounding the western periphery of this ridge will remain well west and northwest of our area today. However, the gradual suppression of the ridge and increasing moisture in return flow around the ridge will allow for a growing threat of rain through the short term period, first across the Cumberland Plateau, possibly brushing our far southwestern zones later today and then over most of the forecast area Sunday. For sensible weather, summer like weather with hot and humid conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out across the far southwest and over the higher terrain to the southeast this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over much more of the area Sunday. Look for afternoon highs in the low 90s and tonights lows once again dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period, and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through around 5Z tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds also on tap. More fog is expected to begin forming between 6 and 8Z for most of the area. Due to dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon, the fog should not be quite as extensive tonight, with less dense fog expected as well. The best time for fog will be between 8 and 12Z tomorrow, with the most extensive fog expected at SME and SJS. Mostly MVFR conditions will be expected, with a few spots perhaps seeing IFR conditions in the worst of the fog. Any fog that does form should be gone by between 13 and 14Z on Sunday. Isolated showers and storms will also be possible today along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. The coverage should be minimal enough to make mention of thunder in the TAFs unwarranted at this time.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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