Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230244 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1044 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 The forecast is on track. Current temperatures are a few to several degrees milder than last night at this time. Cirrus is thinning upstream, but some of this will move in overnight. This, combined with a warmer start will keep the valleys from getting as cool as previous nights. Freshened up the sky cover as well as hourly temperatures and dew points to account for the latest trends in observations. UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Surface high pressure continues to gradually relax across the area; however, upper level ridging is maintaining control across most of the mid and lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer compared to last night at this time. Dew points are also up in places, while similar in others compared to yesterday evening. Some thin cirrus will also attempt to move in from the northwest after midnight. As such, would expect a general 1 to 3 degree bump up in the Friday morning lows compared to this morning. The forecast is on track and merely fine-tuned some of the low temperatures and diurnal drop off over the next few hours. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Surface high pressure to our northeast and upper level ridging extending from the southern plains northeast into the OH valley will continue to control our local weather. More cumulus clouds developed this afternoon than yesterday, especially over the southeast part of the forecast area. These will dissipate this evening leading to a clear night across the area once again. With no change in air mass and similar temperatures and dewpoints in place this afternoon, persistence is the best starting point for the overnight low temperature forecast. With a little more drying each day, the river/stream valley fog over the past couple of nights has become less widespread. Will still carry some dense fog in the forecast for late tonight, but will designate it as patchy. Fair dry weather will continue on Friday and Friday night, with diurnal temperature ranges similar to what we`ve been experiencing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Models remain consistent with the idea of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure maintaining dry weather with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures through the upcoming weekend. I continued to bump up highs from the raw Super Blend guidance each day as we should flirt with 90 Saturday through Monday. Low dewpoints will keep things relatively comfortable though, especially at night. The forecast for next week remains low confidence as models continue to show marked differences in how they handle the break down of the upper ridge and characteristics of the subsequent upper trough that is likely to move eastward to take its place. A surface cold front should pass through the region early next week, but again timing differences are huge. Also, the 22/12z ECMWF brings the front through largely dry now as the sponsoring upper level trough splits leaving a lot of energy behind to settle in over the southwest CONUS. The 22/12z GFS is slower and wetter while the 22/12z CMC keeps the front well to our west through Wed morning. So...will again side fairly close with the Super Blend guidance which offers a good compromise for sensible weather details. This will mean increasing clouds on Monday with a low chance of showers/storms from late Monday through the day on Wednesday. I did reduce PoPs a bit from the raw Super Blend, hedging toward the dry ECMWF. Dry and much cooler weather is anticipated by Wednesday night and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep mostly clear skies and VFR conditions in place across eastern Kentucky through the period and well beyond. Some IFR or worse fog will be seen along the deeper river valleys between 07 and 13z; however, expect the TAF sites to steer clear of this once again. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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