Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231754 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1254 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1158 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 Forecast was largely on track yet. The northwest edge of the forecast area continues to be skirted by a large area of light to moderate rain. However, this precip has been on a slow decline and that trend should continue. Elsewhere, a diurnal cu field has developed in the warm sector, and forecast soundings still suggest a few showers developing this afternoon as was forecast. UPDATE Issued at 916 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 Precip diminished quickly as it moved into our northern counties this morning. There is some light rain over the northwest tip of the forecast area and a high POP has been maintained there for a bit longer, but POPs were trimmed backed elsewhere in the north for the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 717 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 Showers, with some embedded thunder, are starting to make their way into our Bluegrass counties, as the warm front has shifted north towards the I-64 corridor. The latest higher resolution guidance has activity nudging a bit more to the east, before diminishing by late this morning. Will freshen up the POPs to account for these trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 422 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 A surface warm front is currently aligned from the Kentucky/Tennessee border down to the Arklatex region. An ongoing low level jet has been escorting plenty of anomalously high PWAT air along the Mississippi and portions of the Ohio River. Heavy rainfall has stayed just to our northwest overnight. In eastern Kentucky, dense fog from earlier has diminished, as visibilities have been improving. Temperatures currently range from the mid 40s in the cooler locations, to the lower 60s, where southerly winds have already engaged. Aloft, deep southwesterly flow remains in place across the Mississippi Valley, in between a deep trough parked across the Rockies, and the stout ridge still residing across the western Atlantic. The warm front will lift north today, with some shower activity likely bleeding over into the Bluegrass counties through this morning. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible across the rest of eastern Kentucky, as highs return to the mid to upper 70s for most locations, and we remain in the warm sector. Tonight, another low level jet will nose in from the southwest, with the surface boundary laying out mainly along the I-64 corridor. Showers will ramp up after midnight, with better rainfall across the Bluegrass. Higher POPs will continue into the day on Saturday, as the surface boundary lifts back north towards the Ohio River. Will continue to mention thunder as a possibility Saturday afternoon, as some modest instability remains in place. Given the repeated rounds of moderate to at times heavy rainfall moving through into this weekend, have hoisted a flood watch for locations along and north of I-64, where in general, the higher rainfall has occurred in recent days. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 The period will begin with the region in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. A shortwave trough will help to deepen a low pressure across the Plains and eject this into the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday and the attendant Cold front will push slowly eastward. There could be a lull in the rain shower activity in the early evening hours on Saturday especially in the far southeast portions of Kentucky. The cold front will increase rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm through the overnight and early Sunday morning. In the wake of the front, an area of surface high pressure does begin to build eastward toward the Ohio Valley. There is however support for a weaker upper level wave and upper level jet streak helping to keep some chance of showers in the far southeast Sunday night into early Monday, with perhaps a weak surface low pressure developing in response to this. Most of the models have a decent handle on this, but the GFS remains the outlier allowing for a slightly stronger surface high. Did opt to keep this chance POPs at this point given the better POPs will be south of Kentucky. We do see another break as high pressure builds solidly eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, with some slight ridging aloft. This will keep the region dry Monday night into Tuesday evening. Then we will see the upper levels flatten some and small perturbations will ride through the flow. The previously mentioned items along with an increasing low level jet at times will lead to more rain showers starting Wednesday and going into Thursday. The models do remain out of alignment on when and where the greatest amounts of precipitation will occur. Therefore, opted to cap the POPs at high likely given some of the uncertainties that remain. The model blend does give us two higher periods of POPs, with one Wednesday afternoon and the second one overnight Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 Mainly VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, with just some isolated MVFR. Isolated showers were occurring. A healthy field of cumulus clouds had developed over the region at mid day, and with continued heating, some of these will develop into additional showers. The showers may bring sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise, restrictions are not anticipated this afternoon. For most locations, the showers should diminish as sunset approaches. A cold front moving in from the northwest may keep showers going into the evening around I-64. Elsewhere, after an evening lull, showers should redevelop during the night as the front moves southeast and a disturbance also passes through. The frontal passage and showers are expected to bring deteriorating conditions tonight, with a fall to at least MVFR. The northern part of the area is forecast to drop to IFR conditions around dawn. The poor conditions should last through the morning. Winds will be brisk and gusty out of the south to southwest this afternoon, sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph for most places. Winds should diminish toward sunset. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.