Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272014 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO. THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND... GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL

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