Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 162030 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Current conditions across the area feature a narrow band of mid level cloud cover stream southeast over eastern Kentucky. This is in advance of a weak shortwave tracking over the Great Lakes region. This band has been responsible for a challenging temperature forecast over the area heading into this evening. This band will slowly track northeast through this evening and into tonight. For tonight, because of the slow northeast track, it will take a bit of time to set up the ridge to valley temperatures split tonight with that in mind. Have lessened the split a bit for tonight because of this. Also the southwest flow will limit this a bit as well. As the mentioned warm front associated with the wave tracking across the Great Lakes lifts northeast, expect skies to clear out for Friday along with some well above normal temperatures as highs tomorrow will soar to around 60 degrees for highs. The clear skies heading into Friday night will allow for a few valley to ridge differences but the stronger southwest flow ahead of the next system will continue to limit this a bit. In fact, cloud cover ahead of a wave heading northeast from the lower MS Valley will begin to bring showers into eastern Kentucky by Saturday morning. Due to the overall dry weather in place, it may take till later in the day on Saturday to measure so will hold off any QPF till the extended portion of the forecast. This seems to be the biggest question in the short term but trends would suggest this is the case. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 The highlight of the long term portion of the forecast remains the unseasonable warmth, which will become especially noteworthy as we begin the new week. In fact some records, both daytime maximums and warm overnight minimums may be set next week. There will be split flow through the period with anomalously strong upper level ridging from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada at the start of the new week. To begin the weekend an upper low in the southern stream will drift east from the lower MS Valley across the TN Valley. This will result in rain chances from Saturday into Sunday morning, but the QPF remains light, generally under a quarter of an inch. Next week another upper low in the southern stream will drift east, but on a more southerly track, moving from far southern TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. This will be a very slow moving system with the low still over the Gulf of Mexico as we move into Thursday. A quicker moving northern stream short wave will track across the Great Lakes Tuesday, and this may be followed by yet another northern stream short wave trough for mid week, though there is less model agreement as we move into the middle of next week especially for the northern stream. While there is better model agreement with the handling of the southern stream upper low next week, there is not good agreement on how much moisture will flow north into the TN and OH valleys, so the confidence in rain chances and amounts of rain for the middle of next week remain fairly low. For now rain chances will be introduced for Tuesday night and then continue into Thursday morning, with decreasing chances on Thursday afternoon.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. The only highlight appears to be associated with a band of clouds ahead of a northerly weak wave passing by to the north. This band of cloud cover will slowly exit the region to the northeast late tonight. Winds will be light to about 5 to 8 knots out of the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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