Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220035 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH 06Z...AS A STRATOCU DECK GRADUALLY LOWERS FROM 5K FEET AGL DOWN TO THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3K FEET AGL. THIS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE THIS DECK MAY HANG IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 WILL BE MORE ON THE FRINGES OF THE DECK...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE NNW TO THE NNE AT AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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