Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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616 FXUS63 KJKL 182345 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure mostly in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. The heat and humidity did build up over the area with even a few storms able to develop over the higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky. Look for these to dissipate over the next hour or so as the instability fades toward sunset. Otherwise, temperatures topped out in the upper 80s most places with a few 90s and mid 80s noted. Dewpoints were relatively high in the low to mid 60s, for most, yielding humidity levels in the uncomfortable 50 to 60 percent range. These dewpoints will serve to support a floor for lows tonight with even extreme valleys having a hard time getting much lower than the low 60s while upper 60s will be recorded for lows on the ridges. Patchy fog can again be expected in the river valleys late tonight - locally dense. The forecast grids have been tweaked with those thoughts, sky considerations through the evening, and the latest obs/trends for the T/Td grids in mind. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 A rather stagnant weather pattern remains in place across eastern KY with a dissipating front extending from southwest IN and western KY to central OH and weak surface high pressure across our area. A few showers and storms have been noted with the dissipating front over western KY, and there have once again been scattered showers and storms in the higher terrain of the Appalachians to our southeast. An isolated storm even developed over the higher terrain of Wise County VA this afternoon. With the nearby storm in VA we will continue with a slight chance of a thunderstorm in our highest terrain near VA for the next couple of hours. Wednesday will be very similar to today. There will be some fog to start the day, mainly in the river valleys. There will also once again be a very small chance for a thunderstorm in the highest terrain near the VA border during the afternoon. Afternoon maximum temperatures will again be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 At the start of the period upper level ridging will be over the center of the country while an upper level low is along the Carolina coast. The ridge will gradually flatten and extend east as we move into the weekend, with the upper low working its way back east on the south side of the upper high. Our main weather message going into the weekend will still be the heat with highs mostly in the lower 90s for the end of the week and the first part of the weekend. While temperatures will be above normal this is still nothing that unusual for this time of year, though overnight lows in the lower 70s for Friday through Sunday are only a few degrees away from record warm minimums for this time of year. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the weekend and into early next week as the ridge flattens, troughing begins to take shape in the northeast U.S., the upper low already referenced moves west across the Gulf Coast states and a surface cold front drops into the OH valley where it will likely become stationary. This change in the weather pattern will also result in temperatures closer to normal for early next week.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 Weak high pressure across the area will result in a rather stagnant weather pattern through mid week, with VFR conditions and light winds prevailing into Wednesday. Fog will once again develop in the river valleys tonight with fog and MVFR conditions, or worse, likely affecting the SME site for a couple of hours around daybreak - have added a tempo for this. All other TAF sites will continue remain VFR through Wednesday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GREIF

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