Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
929 FXUS63 KJKL 102117 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 417 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR EXTENDED TIME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ABOVE THE COLD SFC TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LED TO SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGERED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FROM JKL ON EAST. THE SNOW ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WHILE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE...ON PACE TO SET A RECORD FOR A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE AT JKL. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AS WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND RETREATS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK BATCH OF ENERGY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND COMING TO AN END INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BY DAWN WITH ONLY A LIMITED DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES. SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SOME TERRAIN/SNOW DEPTH DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION AS WE START THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND STRONG CAA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO OUR NORTH. ALL MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IMPACTING KY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE PEGGED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEG A QUICK FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT PASSES OVER. WHILE ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW AT ONSET...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH NEAR- SURFACE WARMING THAT SNOW MAY BECOME/MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...LIGHT PRECIP WILL LEND ITSELF TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PULLING YET MORE CANADIAN COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS EASTERN KY DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN OVER KY...BUT WILL LESSON IN INTENSITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...IN MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR FAIR AND WARMING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. OUR LOCATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...PROMOTING MORE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN TN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...REACHING CENTRAL TN BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN KY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY QUICKLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF. GRANTED...THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE CURRENT GFS MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE STRONG WAA...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING /IN THE MID 30S/ BY MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT ONSET TO START AS SNOW...MIXING WITH OR BECOMING ALL RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THEN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING ON HIGHEST QPF/POPS IS QUITE A BIT UNCERTAIN STILL THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF NOW...STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4 INCHES FOR THE 2 DAY TIME PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087- 088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.