Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242052 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10 MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND 6 PM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN... GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST... AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 158 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CRASH TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL TURN TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO KTS RANGE. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL LAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE GUSTS SETTLE BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SOME LIGHTER PRECIPTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WSW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DAWN...WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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