Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031957 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS. CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET ANYTHING IN STONE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75. CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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