Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311945 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 SEVERAL UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST...GIVEN THE LATEST WWD GRAPHIC...IT WAS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CORRESPONDED WELL WITH THE LATEST NAM..WHICH WAS POINTING AN A HEIGHTENED AREA OF OMEGA NEAR DAWN ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A HEAVY SNOW BAND AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGIONS...DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO GO AHEAD AND UP THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENT NOW SHOWS BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN CWA...INCREASING IN AMOUNTS WITH THE TERRAIN HEIGHT. ALSO INCREASED BLACK MOUNTAINS TOTAL SLIGHTLY...WITH A LITTLE OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS...ALSO WENT BACK THROUGH AND TWEAKED POPS...QPF...AND SKY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT AS WELL. ULTIMATELY...THIS DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH OVERALL CHANGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW DATA AS IT COMES IN TO SEE IF FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE TO THE POPS AND QPF BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE GOES OUT TODAY. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE TEMP...WIND...AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST. ALL TOGETHER...THESE CHANGES RESULTED IN SOME EDITS TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES. GIVEN THE BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ONGOING WATCH. THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TOMORROW NIGHT STILL STANDS. AFTER INCREASING SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY...ALSO RE-EVALUATED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ENDED UP ADDING AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE INITIAL ADVISORY...GOING AS FAR WEST AS TO INCLUDE BREATHITT COUNTY. GIVEN SOME OF THE TERRAIN OVER 1000 FEET IN THESE ADDED COUNTIES...COULD EXPECT SNOW TOTALS OVER AN INCH...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS. THE ADDED COUNTIES WILL RUN FOR THE SAME DURATION AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FOR THE REMAINDER COUNTIES NOT WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WENT AHEAD AND SENT A NEW SPS PRODUCT TO COVER THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT IN EARNEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND IS MOVING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MEASURING IN THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY MEASURING IN THE SOUTH. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALOFT... TROUGHING REMAINS POISED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING RESIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. A MUCH MORE INTENSE SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SPIRALING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT WAVE...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR IS PULLED IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. DETAILS ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO VARY WITHIN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WARMER TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT THE SNOWFALL TOTALS UNCHANGED...WITH THE CHANGEOVER TIMING ALSO PRETTY SIMILAR COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSES IN THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE STUCK ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MOST LOCATION SETTLING AT EITHER SIDE OF THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT FILLS IN RAPIDLY AGAIN AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG BLACK MOUNTAIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER DUSK...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATIONS NEAR THE 1500 FOOT MARK STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT OF A SLUSHY INCH ACCUMULATION...WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN WINDING UP WITH AROUND A HALF FOOT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ELSEWHERE...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL RESIST THE ACCUMULATION...WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHS...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 AS THE DYNAMIC UL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS IS WHERE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS...MAINLY WITH THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONTAL PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTS MVMT...AND SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SO UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...DECIDED TO BE FAIRLY MODEST WITH THE POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. QUIET WEATHER WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...NOW HOVERING AROUND THE 500 TO 700 FT IFR RANGE. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...EXPECT THESE IFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERHAPS FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY UP AND SLIGHTLY DOWN INTO LIFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AND EXITING THE CWA. KSJS AND KJKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP OCCURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN KY. THEN AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH SAT MORNING...BEFORE MAKING THE TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AND COMING TO AN END AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. TRIED TO BEST REFLECT THE CHANGE- OVER TIMES FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE TAFS...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS WE SEE HOW THE TEMPERATURES REACT AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TAF SITES THAT ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ085>088-109-110-112-113-115>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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