Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 LONG LIVED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTH TO THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGIME AND ITS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE ACTIVITY PEAKS THIS EVENING...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE PRECIP MOST PLACES TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP AGAIN WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ON SUNDAY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SHOWERS WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTING MVFR IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO REDEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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