Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 080940 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 440 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 The near term portion of the forecast will feature dry, cloudy, and cold weather today, with highs in the 30s expected. A weather system passing by to our south and east will bring cloud cover to the area as it moves up the east coast. The weather will remain dry overnight. Clouds will be on the increase again during the day on Saturday, as a fast moving area low pressure in the upper atmosphere moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This system may bring some light rain and snow showers to eastern Kentucky on Saturday. However, there is uncertainty as to the strength of the system and how much moisture it will be able to tap into on its eastward trek. Therefore, the forecast for Saturday will feature only a small chance of precipitation across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures through out the day on Saturday will support both rain and snow showers at times. If any snow accumulation were to occur it would be very light and likely confined to our far northern and northwestern counties. The models are having trouble zeroing in on a common solution at this time and the forecast will take that into account. The precipitation should taper off during the day Saturday, and will give way to all snow by the end of the day as temperatures reach and fall below the freezing mark. Highs on Saturday look to be slightly warmer overall by a couple of degrees, but it will still be quite cold. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 The main features during the period will be two influxes of cold air. The first one will be underway Saturday night as an impulse rotates through a large scale eastern CONUS upper trough. Forecast soundings shows upslope flow and steep low level lapse rates with moisture extending colder than -10c, supportive of flurries/snow showers over most of the area. The question seems to be whether or not measurable precip occurs. Have held the POP low at this point, favoring more in the way of flurries. The wave aloft shifts east by Sunday and warm air advection returns (without any significant moisture advection), resulting in decreasing clouds and dry weather. By Monday afternoon it will be noticeably milder, but only briefly. Another impulse swing through the upper trough on Monday, with an associated clipper type surface system moving by to our north. As it passes, another surge of cold air will arrive Monday night and Tuesday. Along with it will come another period of moist low level upslope cold air advection with steep lapse rates, favoring flurries/snow showers. Models seem to have backed off somewhat on the precip, so have used a low POP. Tuesday night the trough axis aloft moves away to our east and cold air advection eases, and warm air advection then returns on Wednesday. This should once again cut off the shallow convection and allow a return of dry conditions which will last into Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 Scattered to at times broken low and middle level clouds will move across the area overnight. The clouds should gradually diminish to just SCT by around 13Z Friday, with SCT to BKN high clouds expected during the day.. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts will diminish overnight, with generally light and variable winds expected through the rest of Friday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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