Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261904 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A QUIET AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AT THIS STUFF MOVES EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS VERY SLOW AND WON`T LIKELY REACH OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THIS BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE AREA STAYS DRY. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY DROPS THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL SPELL ANOTHER SOMEWHAT QUIET NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOUCHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BOTH FEATURE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT HOW DENSE IT BECOMES WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO REFLECT TO THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH. A LINGERING BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALCAHIANS AND SOME NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW QUITE A CAP IN PLACE THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENT THAT THE CAP WILL BE SUCH THAT GROWTH WILL BE LIMITED TO SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS. IF BY CHANCE A SHOWER DOES POP THE CAP...THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF EASTERN KY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES FLATTEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON ERODING THE MENTIONED CAP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME A REMAINING CAP AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HOLDING OFF TILL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A SLOWED FRONT FROM EXITING AND ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THURSDAY AND THE SUPER BLEND DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION. A POSSIBLE LAPSE IN CONSISTENCY MAY TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INTRUDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOST CURRENT OPERATION MODELS AGREE WITH THIS AS DOES THE SUPER BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TAF SITES BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS UNCERTAIN TONIGHT. THUS WILL PLAN TO LET THE VFR CONDITIONS RIDE FOR NOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...KAS

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