Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 220555 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E. KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.