Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231738 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 138 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KY...BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING 40 TO 50 PERCENT SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE 1000FT RANGE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TARGET. HAVE MADE A COUPLE UPDATES TO INCLUDE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST IS WELL IN CHECK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE OBS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE FOG IS MINIMAL OUT THERE NOW WITH ONLY A HINT OF IT IN THE BOONEVILLE IMAGES. ADDITIONALLY THE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RELATIVELY THICK...BUT HIGH...CLOUDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND ALSO TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...THE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THIS HAS HELPED TO SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S SO THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE CLOSED IN THOSE COOLER VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG...THOUGH NONE IS SEEN IN THE OBS... WEB CAMS...OR FOG CHANNEL FROM THE SATELLITES. EITHER WAY THE FOG WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM THIS MORNING THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE NATION. THIS BURGEONING RIDGING WILL HELP SHUNT A WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL PRESS EAST AND START TO OPEN UP RELEASING MORE ENERGY THAT WILL BEGIN TO STRAFE THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BIT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND COOL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL OR FOGGY AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY LIMIT THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT A TAD MORE THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER ONES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURE WILL TICK UP ANOTHER NOTCH FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH MID 80S ANTICIPATED. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERALLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A DIURNAL FLAVOR EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT MIDWEEK PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE COVERAGE AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE GENERALLY DOMINATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR BEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THE REGION MIGHT END UP CAPPED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS /GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION/. WHILE SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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