Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290739 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD... KEEPING OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 40S...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RECOVER....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE CENTER STAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BEING BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND PULLS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SO LONG AS THIS PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING AT UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS. THERE WILL BE NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE JET STREAM SET UP IN THIS REGIME WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS POLAR LOW...THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL ALSO PULL UNCOMMONLY FAR SOUTHWARD /ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/...ROUNDING THE TROUGH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FOR THURSDAY...THIS JET WILL BE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PULLING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SE...BUT OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...THE JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SO THAT IT BECOMES MORE SW TO NE ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN AND EASTERN SEABOARD REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE JET WILL THEN REMAIN IN THIS POSITION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF KY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 EXPECT THE HIGHER BASED CU TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS DAWN...SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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