Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 262356 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND 1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING OFF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 ...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES... BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GREIF/JMW

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