Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191132 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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