Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 022205 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 605 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME. AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT. GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE. FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD... AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON... THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JVM

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