Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 202007 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES TOWARD DAWN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 AN UPDATED LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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