Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230715 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 GOES-16 Advance Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel showing some rapid fog formation in the river valleys over the past few hours. Based on cross over temperatures around 64 and temperatures already nearing this value in most places, fog could be as bad if not a little worse than last night as temperatures continue to fall. Looks like we had a slightly slower onset tonight due to the fact we had slightly lower dewpoints tonight. However, expecting things to catch up quickly with some rather dense fog around daybreak. Introduced dense wording into the forecast with this update. Overall, temperatures appear to be on track. UPDATE Issued at 1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 A quiet night is underway, and the forecast is still on track. Blending evening obs into the forecast grids has not resulted in any substantive changes. UPDATE Issued at 801 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Have updated to blend in early evening obs and represent the latest trends. That said, it has not resulted in any significant changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 350| PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Quiet weather expected through the short term making it basically a temperature and fog forecast. Persistence will be a decent forecaster through the period and tended to follow that line of thinking while working the grids. Each night should see the development of fog, mainly in the valley areas and near sources of water but with slight improvements each night. Temperatures will remain warm in general, especially afternoon highs. Increasingly drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in control of the weather through midweek. This will continue to promote above normal temperatures, generally in the mid and upper 80s. By Thursday, heights will begin to decrease across Kentucky as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will also make its way SE towards the CWA, traversing sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model trends continue to show this front losing considerable strength by the time it reaches eastern KY, due in part to the parent low pressure system moving much farther northward, well into NE Canada. The ECMWF model still supports a dry forecast as the front moves over, while the GFS is dry up until Thursday afternoon, at which point diurnal influences will help to produce some light showers with low QPF values. Continued to go with the blend between the two, which supports only isolated showers at best Thursday afternoon. Cooler temps and lack of instability will prevent thunder wording. Behind this cold front, another reinforcing cold front is expected to end out the period. These two systems will bring the push of more seasonable temperatures into the CWA to end out the week and through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 The only concern during the period will be dense late night/early morning fog. As usual, it will start in deep valleys and grow in breadth and depth through sunrise. Do not have high confidence in TAF forecasts involving the fog, and have depended to a large extent on persistence from last night. Fog will dissipate by late morning in most locations. Aside from the fog, conditions will be VFR. Winds will be 5 kts or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL/KAS

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