Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281150 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 750 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES HAS DEVELOPED A MASS OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW RACING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KY. THIS MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THESES CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL REPORTS THUS FAR IN THE MORNING...PRECIP TIMING STILL SEEMS TO BE IN RATHER GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. ALSO...AFTER SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT...SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THIS UPDATE HOWEVER DUE TO THE FACT THAT LATEST TRENDS SHOW IT BURNING OFF QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES...DRIER NORTHERLY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THIS NORTHERLY AIR WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NE AND ERLY SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED OR SCT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER EVENT. AND GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF...EXPECT THE IMPACTS TO BE VERY MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE POINTING AT YET ANOTHER BATCH OF ISL TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE VERY LIGHT AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST...SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS WITH THESE SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THURSDAY...REMAINING IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A PERSISTENT TROUGH REIGNS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SOME TEMPORARY DAMPENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES PLACE...ALLOWING FOR BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNALLY INFLUENCED CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM THE 70S MID-WEEK...TO THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...HAS CAUSED A MASS OF MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO ITS POSITION IN A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...THESE CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY EJECTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO EASTERN KY. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THESE CLOUDS BY A COUPLE HOURS IN THE TAFS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TIMING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS WELL MAINLY AT KSJS AND KJKL. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL SET UP...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF IMPACTS THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE...CHOSE NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE OF A STRATIFIED LOW CIG EVENT RATHER THAN FOG. THIS IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO ONLY TRENDED DOWN TO MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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