Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252333 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 733 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 706 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 WSR-88D radar showing the afternoon convection has diminished and this is in line with the forecast grids. Otherwise we are looking at a warm and humid evening under the upper level ridging and return flow at the surface. Grids are on track and only overnight issue will be valley fog potential. Therefore only minor tweaks needed for current conditions tonight in the grids and taking the thunder out of the HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. This airmass has led to isolated shower and embedded thunderstorm activity this afternoon along a weak moisture gradient. Will see these diminish into late afternoon as this gradient and subsequent low level forcing decrease. Decay of diurnal cumulus field and increasing subsidence will allow for patchy fog development tonight and Friday morning, especially in sheltered valleys. An influx of relatively drier air coupled with another generally precipitation free day should limit more widespread development. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday. An upper shortwave trough and weak cool front look to remain confined to the Ohio Valley and north as ridging holds strong locally. Best chance of any development would be off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border, but a theta-e minimum in place along with subsidence aloft should preclude mentionable chances. This will allow for a hot afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Not the best agreement amongst the extended this time around. The ECMWF was consistently drier through out the period than the GFS. The blended model data settled around a solution that features showers and storms moving into the area Saturday afternoon, and persisting Monday afternoon, with the most active periods being the afternoon and evening hours. It then appears that a ridge of high pressure will settle over the area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, bringing a brief respite from shower and storm activity. A sluggish cold front will attempt to push into the area from early Tuesday afternoon onward. This boundary may spark a few showers and storms in our far western counties on Tuesday. After that, another ridge of high pressure is progged to spread over the area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. More showers and storms are then expected to plague the area from late Tuesday night through the end of the week. With the amount of uncertainty in the model data, decided to keep only very low rain chances in the forecast, at least until the models have a better handle on things. Hot and muggy conditions are expected to persist through out the period, with highs around 90 expected from Saturday through Wednesday. The expected clouds and precipitation should allow temperatures on Thursday to not be quite as warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on that day. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Most sites will enjoy VFR TAF period. Any convection that developed through the day has now diminished and we are left with some CU at a few sites to begin the period. Think this will wane through the evening and we will be left with high clouds at best. That said the increase in moisture will stand to see valley fog issues overnight into the morning. The question will be if this can be seen at any sites and right now LOZ stands the best chances given a more persistence. Therefore kept this thought of MVFR VIS for both SME and LOZ given the usual issues, however not buying into the degradation seen in some of the guidance at this point.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ

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