Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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844 FXUS63 KJKL 082138 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 438 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118- 120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104- 106>110-112-113-115-117-119. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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