Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230842 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 342 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 The general model consensus is calling for an unusually deep area of low pressure to continue moving eastward across the Tennessee valley tonight, and eventually across the Carolinas and then offshore Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As the low rotates across the TN valley tonight and during the day Monday, we can expect to see numerous light to moderate rain showers moving across the area. The rain will taper off very slowly today and tonight, and should be exiting eastern Kentucky by late Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts thus far have been much lower than originally forecast, and rainfall rates have also not been all that impressive. That being said, flooding problems are no longer anticipated across eastern Kentucky. There could certainly still be ponding of water on area roadways that could cause issues with hydroplaning and overall slick conditions, but flooding is no longer anticipated. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than what we saw over the weekend, but will still be above normal for the time of year today and tomorrow. Highs today and Tuesday are expected to max out in the lower 50s both days. Tonights lows should only fall to around 40, with ongoing precipitation and extensive cloud cover acting to moderate things a bit in that regard. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal temperatures. The intense storm system currently in the deep south will have progressed to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, and its last influence in the form of cloudiness and perhaps a few showers will be pulling out of the JKL forecast area during the day. Ridging at all levels will pass over Tuesday night, with warm air advection beginning before dawn. This will likely lead to ridge/valley differences for lows. An intense low pressure system heading northeast toward the Great Lakes will bring a tightening pressure gradient locally, which could bring rising temperatures by dawn on Wednesday, even in many valleys. One more mild day will occur on Wednesday, ahead of the system`s cold front. That cold front will arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. Only modest moisture return is expected before the front arrives, and little or no precipitation is expected with fropa. Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for clouds and when it`s cold enough, flurries and snow showers. There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft. Trying to time these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves passing through the large scale trough. One peak is on Thursday, and another on Sunday. On Thursday, temps will still could be warm enough for rain or rain mixed with snow. However, any precip in the remainder of the period should be snow.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017 The airports across eastern Kentucky will experience widespread light to moderate rain showers through 22 or 23Z today, before the rain finally being to taper off. MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible through the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. The worse conditions are expected to occur between 11 and 18Z today, with low CIGS being the primary issue. Northeast winds will back to northwesterly through the night and into Monday with speeds increasing to 10-12 knots, while also becoming gusty at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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