Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161838 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 138 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 137 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 Rain is beginning to taper off across our northern counties and that trend will continue to work southward into the rest of the afternoon. After chatting with surrounding offices, thought it was prudent to go ahead and pump out a flood watch for southeast Kentucky on Saturday. Models are supporting upwards of an inch along the Virginia state line, and with ground already very saturated, won`t take much to cause some local high water issues. UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 Widespread rain will continue through the day. Cold front is now pushing towards the Jackson area and will eventually move into the rest of southeast Kentucky in the next few hours. Some gusty winds up to 35 mph have been noted immediately behind this front, so a brief period of stronger winds may be seen this morning. Rain should slowly wind down from north to south between 2 and 6 pm today. UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 The forecast was in pretty good shape this morning. A few adjustments were made to the timing of precip this morning, and the latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. Ongoing rain showers will likely have overspread the entire area by 13 or 14Z this morning and will not being to taper off until this afternoon. No update to the zone forecast text product is scheduled at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 The near term period will be quite active, as a series of weather systems brings periods of rain, and a bit of snow, to eastern Kentucky today and into the weekend. Numerous light to moderate rain showers will be moving across the area through the end of the day today, as a cold front moves across the region. The rain will be most widespread through out the morning, and will quickly taper off this afternoon. The rain should be out of eastern Kentucky by early tonight. Colder air will spill into the area tonight behind the departed cold front. We can expect a break from precipitation tonight, as a weak area of high pressure moves quickly across the region. A second bout of precipitation is then expected to affect the area during the day on Saturday. The leading edge of this precipitation should begin moving into eastern Kentucky from the south or southwest early Saturday morning, in advance of an area of low pressure that will be moving across the Tennessee valley. Some snow, or a rain snow mix, will be possible on the northern edge of the advancing precipitation, as it moves into colder air Saturday morning. The precipitation should transition to all rain by early Saturday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations for both systems combined should average around an inch for most locations. Localized flooding will be possible today and again tomorrow, as any rain we see will be falling on already saturated ground. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal again today, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s forecast for most locations. Overnight lows will be cooler than we have seen the past two nights, but still a bit above normal. Low temperatures tonight and early Saturday morning should fall into the upper 20s in the far north and the low to mid 30s on average south of the I-64 corridor. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 446 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 A southern stream of the upper level flow will persist from the eastern Pacific west of Mexico across the southeast CONUS. Impulses in the flow will bring additional incursions of deep moisture northward, interacting with northern stream flow. One of these episode will be on the way out on Saturday night, with any lingering precip ending, and surface high pressure building in from the west and then passing over late Saturday night and Sunday with mainly dry weather. The next surge of moisture will move through Sunday night and Monday, coinciding with an amplifying upper level pattern with a western CONUS trough and a summer-like ridge off the southeast coast. As the ridge builds, moisture/precip should become concentrated to our north and west along a frontal boundary associated with the trough, and we will emerge into an unseasonably warm air mass until mid week. A piece of the trough will move east and flatten the ridge, allowing the surface boundary to move southeast through our area as a cold front with another round of wet weather. Models still need to come into better agreement on timing of the front and precip. At this time the forecast is a broadbrushed picture of this on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model forecast soundings show weak instability developing along the front at midweek, and a slight chance of thunder has been included. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 137 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018 Rain will gradually taper off into this afternoon, but MVFR cigs will continue to impact the area through tonight. Another round of rain will spread into the area on Saturday with cigs possibly lowering down to IFR for a period of time Saturday into Saturday night. Northwest winds will gradually diminish into this evening with southerly winds developing on Saturday with the arrival of the rain. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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