Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250637 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 137 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS LED TO LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRIZZLE WAS INCLUDED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNRISE...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS...LIKELY FALLING AS SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET IS GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME RETURNS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL KY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN KY. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF BY MORNING...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WERE UPGRADED TO SCATTERED FOR THIS UPDATE AS A RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIND GUSTS DYING DOWN BY THIS POINT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...KEPT SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND CIGS SEEMED TO BE WELL ON TRACK. LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND WINDS ARE NOW HEADING EAST OF THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LESS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE...THINGS SEEM TO BE DYING DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED BOTH ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA. THIS ADDED ISOLATED CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT ALSO BUMPED SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BUT THESE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10 MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND 6 PM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN... GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST... AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...AND DRIZZLE AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD END BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER AS LONG AS 18Z OR LATER IN THE EAST...BUT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JP

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