Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A cold front is pushing southeast across the Midwest and should reach the Ohio River by about dawn on Wednesday. This system will stall out right along the Ohio River as it loses its upper level support and Mid/upper level heights begin to increase aloft. A stronger upstream trough will drop into the Missouri-Mississippi valley regions Wednesday night and produce a sfc wave or low over the lower Ohio Valley which will then ride up the Ohio River reaching SDF by early Thursday morning. Together these features will bring an increasing threat of precipitation to portions of our area beginning late tonight into Wednesday afternoon for areas along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor and then further south and east Wednesday night. Regardless PoPs will remain low ahead of the main event just beyond the short term. We can expect slight to low chance PoPs where the threat of rain exists. Best chance for thunder appears to be during the afternoon Wednesday, generally along and north of Interstate 64. Any thunder would be Isold to Sct in coverage. Better instability is lacking otherwise and mainly elevated in nature. However, did keep some Isold thunder in the forecast for early Wednesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 400| PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A sharp mid level trough will drive a strong cold front eastward across Kentucky on Thursday with widespread precipitation expected. The best chances of rain will come during the afternoon and evening hours with the frontal passage. Instability will increase ahead of the approaching front with surface LI`s dropping to -4. We also have some modest SW unidirectional shear in place which could support a few bowing structures with any storms that can develop. DCAPE is getting up there as well and could support some downburst winds. Thus, will introduce the mention of a few storms containing some strong winds. Thunder threat will decrease as the front departs Thursday evening, but some clouds and showers could linger behind the front well into Friday morning. Still some question as to how long clouds will linger into Friday afternoon and evening and its possible we continue to deal with cloud cover through Friday night. However, as the mid level ridge builds in on Saturday, any remaining cloud cover will exit, leaving behind mainly clear skies for the rest of the weekend. Highs on Friday and Saturday will take a large step downwards with readings only in the 50s. Despite the cool highs, conditions never really come together for a good freeze or frost, so as of right now, looks like we might be able to squeeze past this weekend without a frost or freeze. Still wouldn`t rule out some patchy frost in some of the deeper eastern valleys late Saturday night. Airmass will moderate as we head into Sunday and next week with highs back into the 60s. High pressure will generally be in control from Saturday onward, leading to another extended dry stretch of weather well into next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Main forecast challenge has been winds, which have been running between 10 and 20 kts. Gusts have only been 5-10 kts higher. Overall winds are beginning to shows signs of trending down slightly. Expect winds will continue to lighten but only gradually through the afternoon, and not without the occasional spike. Current CU field will also dissipate gradually as drier air continues to mix out the boundary layer. However, clouds will be on the increase, especially across the north tonight as a cold frontal boundary approaches the Ohio River. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.