Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110500 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...ALL SEEMS TO BE CLEAR AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE CWA. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REFLECTED CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPAWNED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS THEN POPPED UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY FOLLOWED THE OUTFLOW DIRECTION. ONE SUCH AREA WAS ALONG THE ROCKCASTLE AND MADISON COUNTY BORDERS...WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED A DECENT RAIN SHOWER...AND THEN REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE FAR EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE HOURS NOW. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS SHOWER IS FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...WITH ITS OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO MAKE SURE ISOLATED COVERAGE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS SHOWER...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AND BRING WITH IT A DRIER...HOTTER AIR MASS FROM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO SUMMER TIME LEVELS BY TOMORROW UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. DESPITE IT BEING MID JULY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR EASTERN KY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 THE AIR HAS BECOME A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...SO DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER VSBYS FOR THIS MORNING THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE. ALSO NOTICED ON THE DRIVE IN THAT THE MIST IN THE RIVER VALLEY WAS A LOT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT ALSO WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ALSO GOING MORE WITH A MVFR SOLUTION. THE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 12Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JJ

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