Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 262045 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2Z this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last through 23 or 0Z, as any remaining instability and best forcing should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6Z, and should be gone by around 9Z. After a very brief reprieve, we should see more showers moving into the area from the south and southwest between 12 and 13Z on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again after 17Z on Monday. There will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s, and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough moving through the OH Valley region and into the Appalachians that shifts east during the day on Tuesday and takes deeper moisture with it. The associated surface low is expected to move into the Mid Atlantic states by Tuesday evening and take the cold front across the area on Tuesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging should build in behind it, with surface high pressure nosing into the OH Valley at midweek. This should bring a break in the unsettled weather with mild and drier weather from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. The pattern will remain rather active with the next in a series of upper lows or shortwaves moving from the Southern Rockies across the Plains and into the mid MS and OH Valleys from Wed through Thursday evening. There is also some timing and strength differences with the upper and surface low beyond Thursday. The general consensus however, is for the upper and surface system to track to the west and north of the area from Thursday through Friday night and bring additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. This system should continue to depart on Saturday with surface and upper level ridging building in for a dry end to the weekend. Chances for showers will be highest to start the period, followed by a lull at midweek. The next system will bring another period of unsettled weather with pops in the good chance to likely range form Thursday into Friday evening. At this point, next weekend is expected to end on a dry note. High temperatures should average above normal for most of the period, although highs on Wednesday and Saturday should be near normal for late March/Early April. Lows will also be mild and at this point are not expected to fall below 40 at any point, even in the normally colder valley locations.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across eastern Kentucky through around 2Z tonight. A few thunderstorms may also occur north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, possibly affecting JKL, SYM, and SJS. VFR CIGs in general are expected, although MVFR conditions may occur where an intense rain shower or any thunderstorms directly impact one of the airports mentioned above. BKN to OVC low and middle level cloud cover will plague the area through the end of the TAF period, with VFR conditions expected from 23Z through the end of the TAF period. Any chance for thunder should be gone by 0Z. After that, numerous rain showers should steadily taper off through around 6Z, with no rain expected anywhere between roughly 7 and 13Z Monday. Winds will be generally out of the south at around 10 mph today, with gusts of up to 20 mph possible at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.