Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS... CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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