Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 080800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 The near term portion of the forecast will feature dry, cloudy, and cold weather today, with highs in the 30s expected. A weather system passing by to our south and east will bring cloud cover to the area as it moves up the east coast. The weather will remain dry overnight. Clouds will be on the increase again during the day on Saturday, as a fast moving area low pressure in the upper atmosphere moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This system may bring some light rain and snow showers to eastern Kentucky on Saturday. However, there is uncertainty as to the strength of the system and how much moisture it will be able to tap into on its eastward trek. Therefore, the forecast for Saturday will feature only a small chance of precipitation across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures through out the day on Saturday will support both rain and snow showers at times. If any snow accumulation were to occur it would be very light and likely confined to our far northern and northwestern counties. The models are having trouble zeroing in on a common solution at this time and the forecast will take that into account. The precipitation should taper off during the day Saturday, and will give way to all snow by the end of the day as temperatures reach and fall below the freezing mark. Highs on Saturday look to be slightly warmer overall by a couple of degrees, but it will still be quite cold. Saturday nights lows are expected to fall into the upper teens and lower 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017 A western Conus ridge and eastern Conus/North American trough pattern is expected to persist through the period. Periodic shortwaves/clipper type systems will bring chances for light precipitation and reinforcing shots of colder air. The sfc low associated with the first of these will have moved into the Great Lakes before the start of the period with the trailing sfc cold front trailing south into the MS Valley region. The best synoptic forcing and moisture with this system appears to remain north of the area while a stronger sfc low organizes and moves up the eastern seaboard well east of the area. However, cold air advection and solar insolation on Saturday should bring steepening lapse rates leading to scattered to possibly numerous snow showers on Saturday afternoon/evening along and in western flow behind the cold front. The snow showers should be favored across portions of the escarpment in the Daniel Boone NF and in the higher terrain of southeastern KY. Even at that, QPF will be minimal and during the day air and ground temperature should be marginal at best for accumulations. Accumulations should be a half of an inch or less in all locations. Low level moisture should linger well into Saturday night and flurries may not end in the far southeast part of the area until near dawn on Sunday. Height rises and surface high pressure building into the area should work in for late Saturday night into Sunday behind the departing shortwave trough. The surface high should remain dominant into the day on Monday as it shifts south and east although upper level disturbances passing by to the north may bring rounds of mid and high clouds. The airmass should moderate, briefly for Monday to near normal temperatures with southwesterly flow between the high and the next approaching clipper system. Models vary from run to run and model to model in handling the next more significant clipper system to affect the region Monday night through Tuesday and thus timing is uncertain. However, isolated to scattered coverage of snow showers appears probable at some point between late Monday night and Tuesday evening as lapse rates should again steepen up again as another cold airmass arrives. Late in the period for Wed night into Thursday, the model consensus is for another clipper system to approach the region leading to renewed chances for snow showers. At this time, both of these events appear they will be on the light side with the best forcing north of the region and sfc reflection if any with the first passing north of the area and limited moisture with both.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST FRI DEC 8 2017 Scattered to at times broken low and middle level clouds will move across the area overnight. The clouds should gradually diminish to just SCT by around 13Z Friday, with SCT to BKN high clouds expected during the day.. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts will diminish overnight, with generally light and variable winds expected through the rest of Friday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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