Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281900 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening now that the cap has broken and peak heating is occurring. These storms are all either moving very slowly or not at all, so locally heavy rainfall will be a concern for locations that do experience a thunderstorm. The showers and storms should taper off quickly once the sun begins to go down. Eastern Kentucky should be rain free by around 4Z tonight. The dry weather should continue through late Monday morning. More showers and storms will likely fire up tomorrow afternoon, as a hot, moist, and unstable air mass will still be in place across the region. The lack of steering winds aloft will once again contribute to slow storm movement tomorrow, or lack thereof, so locally heavy rainfall could once again be a concern. We will see more fog across eastern Kentucky as well. The fog should mainly be confined to river valleys and location near bodies of water. Locations that experience rainfall this afternoon and evening could also see fog overnight, depending on how much clearing occurs. The hot weather will persist into the start of the new work week, with highs on Monday around 90 expected. Overnight lows the next two nights will again be warm and uncomfortable, with minimum readings in the upper 60s to around 70 expected. Winds will be generally light and variable outside of any thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Our weather pattern looks quiet through the upcoming work week. The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures above normal and humidity elevated. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over our higher terrain along the VA border in the warm and muggy airmass Tuesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down by mid week and we transition to northwest flow aloft. A weak and moisture starved cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, possibly sparking a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure will then build in behind this front for Thursday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. The forecast for Friday into the Labor Day weekend is low confidence. Longer range forecast models want to develop a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northeast into the Southeast U.S. as a shortwave dives in from the northwest. The GFS and GEM bring some moisture into our southeast counties while the ECMWF keeps everything on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains. The model blend did offer some PoPs as early as Friday in our southeast but trimmed this back some with the drier airmass over our region and the low confidence outcome with the potential tropical system.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the end of the period. FEW to SCT clouds will move across the area today and tonight. Light and variable winds will again prevail. Some valley fog is expected to form late tonight, but it is unlikely that any of the TAF sites will be affected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will form and move across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening, but should remain scattered enough to not directly affect any of the TAF sites. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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