Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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565 FXUS63 KJKL 070645 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S...SO DID ALLOW FOR A FEW SITES TO MAKE IT CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BY DAWN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH VALLEYS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL PUSH LOWS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF FRESHENING UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 MSAS WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE IN FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NOW SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOUR. THIS WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN KY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NOW HAVING SAID THAT...UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS. OVERALL WE ALREADY HAD THIS THOUGHT SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF IMPENDING DISTURBANCE. RIGHT NOW NOT THINKING THIS WILL KILL TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE LATER ONSET AND SW FLOW. THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. OVERALL TRIED TO BETTER TIME OUT THIS SYSTEM AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...MIX IF RAIN/SNOW...AND SNOW. RIGHT NOW BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING AT SOME POINT WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF THIS RAIN BEFORE SEEING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND DAWN MONDAY. LOOKING AT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONSET FOR MOST JUST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND MIXING POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 434 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED LOW DESCENDING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT OPENS UP. LARGE AND DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST...WITH THE LAST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP EXITING OUR AREA AS THE PERIOD STARTS. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT WOULD GO OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE PERSISTENT... ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE MOST OF THE SNOW WINDS DOWN BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY LATE IN THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN RAPID FLOW ALOFT ARE NOT TIMED WELL...AND VARIATION EXISTS IN TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD AIR MASS BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND OF RECENT RUNS...WHICH TEMPERS THE COLD SOMEWHAT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 DWINDLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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