Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161738 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1238 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Cloud cover associated with a weak wave passing by to the north will continue slowly push northeast out of the area. Adjusted the forecast to account for its slow progression. Also updated the grids with the latest observations. The lingering cloud cover is keeping temps down a degree or two so adjusted for that as well. The grids have been saved and sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 830 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017 The forecast is on track this morning. Provided an update to the forecast grids to input the latest observations. The grids have been saved and sent to the web and NDFD servers. UPDATE Issued at 646 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Forecast on track so far this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning before steadily tapering off to partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions by the end of the day. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast to establish new trends. No other changes to the forecast were needed. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region for the next few days, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky. Scattered to broken low and middle level clouds will move across the today, as a northwesterly flow aloft, associated with a large area of low pressure aloft currently centered over New England, sends a surge of moisture off the western Great Lakes across the area. The clouds should scatter out by late today. We should see periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies through out the day. The partly cloudy skies will likely persist through Friday morning, before the New England low finally pulls off to the east, taking its cloud cover with it. We should see mostly clear skies and light winds across the area on Friday. Temperatures will be running above normal today and tomorrow, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s today, and in the lower 60s on Friday. Tonights lows will vary quite a bit between ridges and valleys, as light winds, mostly clear skies, and dry conditions set up across the area. Our valleys are expected to fall into the upper 20s, while the surrounding ridges only drop into the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017 The models are in good agreement with an amplified but progressive long wave pattern to remain in place across the CONUS through the period. Smaller scale features are fairly well agreed upon through the weekend, and then confidence decreases a bit more into next week, with timing and evolution differences. Well above normal temperatures will continue to be the main weather highlight through the extended. Highs will average in the 60s throughout the period, with the warmest temperatures occurring early next week, when some places may approach the 70 degree mark. Lows will generally average in the 40s, although did undercut the blended lows for Friday night, as valleys look to decouple into the 30s, with light southwesterly flow in place, and a mostly clear night on tap. Rain chances will increase Saturday into Saturday night as an upper level low moves from the Arklatex region to the TN/KY border. Rain showers will be exiting by Sunday morning, as the system pulls away to the east. Upper level ridging will then take hold into early next week, before another system approaches for Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is disagreement with how much moisture will be drawn in from the main feature, another upper level low that will be passing east across the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is a little more progressive, and also shows more influence from the northern stream, while the ECMWF remains more detached and slower. Given this uncertainty, the POPs were limited to 30 to 40% through the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. The only highlight appears to be associated with a band of clouds ahead of a northerly weak wave passing by to the north. This band of cloud cover will slowly exit the region to the northeast late tonight. Winds will be light to about 5 to 8 knots out of the southwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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