Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240031 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 831 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAVE SLOWLY SAGGED EAST WITH TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THESE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND EMBEDDED TRAINING STORMS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS NOT MADE MUCH OF A RECOVERY AFTER CONVECTION FROM EARLY TODAY HAD MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH HAS STRUGGLED WITH CAPTURING THIS SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVED...BUT IN RECENT RUNS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. OTHER THAN A MINOR RIPPLE IN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT... SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SLIDING SOUTHWARD AT A VERY SLOW PACE...BUT SHOULD GET A HELPFUL KICK START THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING TO NOON ON THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND. UNTIL THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THUS FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE NUDGED GRIDS TO LATEST BLEND OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY TEMPS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS REFLECTED IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 HE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY BRINGING FAIR MILD WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE REMAINS OF A POSSIBLE MCS MAY APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN PROBABILITIES IN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z ON SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS THE REMAINS OF THE RETURNING WARM FRONT BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN THE AREA...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE OVERALL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH MAJOR DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS KY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST...NOTED BY WPC TO HAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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