Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281042 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 642 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 640 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Freshened up the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 The large upper level low continues to gradually sink southward from the Great Lakes region towards the Ohio Valley this morning. The process of this low reaching Kentucky has actually slowed down a bit in models, delaying further the increase in sky cover and rain chances this afternoon. In fact, high-res models bring rain/storms into the far northern counties closer to 21Z. The models then develop a convective linear feature along the cold front as it pushes further into our area closer to 00Z Thursday. The best chances for thunderstorms, including some small hail and strong winds (with about 900 DCAPE) will likely be contained to the far northern counties during the late afternoon period. But since the frontal passage will take place mostly outside of peak heating late this evening, thunderstorms shouldn`t pose much of a threat for the majority of the area. Shower chances will then continue through Thursday evening as the upper low continues moving over Kentucky. Thunderstorms will again be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with ample upper level dynamics and modest instability in the area. Due to clear skies and dry air in place, lows this morning are expected to dip into the upper 30s in the deepest valleys and in the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Even with the dry air in place, some fog is possible in the deeper valleys and near bodies of water this morning. Afternoon temperatures should be near average today, in the mid 70s. But this will depend on how quickly the cloud cover increases this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be closer to normal (around 50 degrees) with overcast skies and showers in the area. Thursday will be on the chilly side with highs only in the low and mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A blocky long wave pattern will be in full swing across the CONUS through the weekend. Starting out, an upper level low will be entrenched across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with ridging across the Plains, while troughing works in across the West Coast. The models have maintained fairly good continuity, gradually shunting the upper level low back to the north towards the Great Lakes, as the ridge slowly slides east towards the Mississippi Valley, and troughing becomes more established across the western CONUS. Model differences in timing and amplitude become more apparent by early next week, as the trough swings east into the Plains. Cool conditions, along with a threat of some showers, and perhaps a few storms during peak heating, will continue across eastern Kentucky to end the work week. Depending upon the exact position of the cutoff low and an associated dry slot, Friday may be drier than currently forecast, as depicted by the latest ECMWF. The last of the showers will end by late Saturday afternoon, as the low pulls far enough away, and heights recover. Dry weather will ensue Saturday night and looks to last into early and perhaps middle of next week, depending on the amplitude of the ridge. Temperatures will gradually warm up across eastern Kentucky through early next week, with a few 80s for highs returning by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 VFR conditions should remain in play through the first part of the day today with any overnight fog dissipating around 12Z. Cloud cover will be on the increase from the northwest today as an upper level low and associated cold front approach eastern Kentucky. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z, gradually spreading into the area from the northwest. Ceilings will begin to develop through the afternoon, and then gradually lower to near minimums by the end of the TAF forecast period. Fog may also be a factor late tonight depending on shower activity. Winds will be gusty this afternoon ahead of the front, up to 20 knots, then gradually diminish overnight to around 5 knots or less.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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