Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 091720 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1220 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 WSR-88D radar continues to show a few spots with enhanced returns across the far east this morning. Some of the more robust upslope snow showers could put down and quick dusting of snow. Otherwise most will see flurries and mostly cloudy skies across the region. NW flow and building strong Canadian high pressure will keep temperatures around or below freezing through the day. Grids remain in decent shape this morning but did update with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 706 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Some snow showers have been embedded within the broad area of ongoing flurries at times through early this morning. These have been enough to put down up to a tenth of an inch of snowfall in places. Temperatures have dropped off into the lower 20s, allowing any light covering to stick to most surfaces, including area roads, bridges, and overpasses. As such, have hoisted an SPS mentioning some slick spots through 10 am. Flurries and isolated snow showers will gradually diminish through the morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 340 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 At the surface, arctic high pressure remains poised across the middle of the CONUS, with a secondary surface ridge nosed in across the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a trough axis is currently shifting east across the Mississippi Valley. Mainly snow flurries, with a few heavier pockets of light snow, are flying across eastern Kentucky currently. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20s for most locations, with northwest winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, allowing for wind chills in the teens. The flow will gradually flatten out through the short term, as the trough exits off to the east and dampens. The expansive surface high pressure area will gradually weaken and shift towards the eastern CONUS through Saturday. Mostly cloudy skies and flurries will linger through this morning, before gradual clearing takes place from southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs will be chilly, generally ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies tonight and lighter winds will allow for teens across the board, with the coldest readings generally in deeper valleys in the southwest, closer to the center of the surface high. Saturday highs will be several degrees warmer, with more sunshine and at least weak return flow ensuing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will bring warmer temperatures to eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period. Highs on Sunday should top out in the 40s as winds shift from the east to the south Saturday night. Sunday morning should still start off quite cold, as radiational cooling should be sufficient to allow temperatures to fall into the 20s across the area. Temperatures Sunday night and Monday will be even warmer, as the southerly flow increases to 10 to 15 mph early Monday morning. The winds will be increasing and shifting to the south as a developing area of low pressure and its associated cold front begin displacing the ridge Sunday afternoon and evening. The current model data is suggesting that the first isolated rain showers will be moving into eastern Kentucky early Sunday afternoon. The precipitation will gradually increase in coverage Sunday night, as the front approaches from the northwest. By 5 or 6Z Monday, most locations across eastern Kentucky should have seen some rain. The rain will continue to push across the area during the day on Monday, and will gradually taper off from west to east as the upper low moves off to our east. Peak precipitation probabilities should occur from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. The rain is expected to taper off quickly from late Monday afternoon through early Monday evening. The last isolated showers should be exiting the area by 2Z or so Monday night. Once the initial weather system has moved out of the region, a modest cool down will occur. We can expect temperatures to fall into the 30s Monday night, and rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s on Tuesday. Cloud cover should remain fairly widespread across the region, as another area of low pressure is forecast to approach us from the south Tuesday and Tuesday night. There may be just enough cold air in place at the surface to allow some snow to mix with the rain as a second area of low pressure moves in from the south. By 14 or 15Z on Tuesday the precipitation should be all rain. The rain is not expected to be as widespread as with the initial system, as this second area of low pressure will be quite bit weaker than the first one. Isolated to scattered rain showers should be the norm on Tuesday. Later Tuesday night, as colder air moves into the area from the northwest, we could see another rain snow mix setting up between roughly 5 and 10Z. This mixed precip should transition over to mostly rain by 16 or 17Z. A surge of colder air is then expected to push into the area from the northwest, as the trough of low pressure moves off to the east. This should allow for any ongoing mixed precipitation to change over to light snow during the afternoon and evening hours. We may even see some light snow accumulations across portions of eastern Kentucky by the end of the day on Wednesday. This will mark a transition to much colder conditions, as an arctic air mass will then settle over the region. In fact, Highs on Wednesday will likely top out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations. The main surge of cold air will occur Wednesday night as winds shift to the northwest. Lows across the area on Thursday morning are forecast to fall to around 20. Thursdays highs should be a bit cooler than the day before, with readings ranging from the low to mid 30s for most folks. Friday morning will dawn cold as well, but with cloud cover increasing ahead of the next weather system, readings should be several degrees warmer than on Thursday, with lows in the low to mid 20s expected. A few snow showers may even be moving into the area from the west by early Friday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 MVFR CIGs remains the story for TAF sites this afternoon, and VIS SAT does show that this deck is starting to erode in the Lake Cumberland region. This low deck is expected to continue to erode and should scattered out between 20 to 21Z timeframe from SW to NE. Winds have been around the 5 to 10 knot mark as expected and will die off this evening once we decouple. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ

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