Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250033 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 833 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 833 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 No major updates to the forecast this evening. Did adjust grids towards latest hourly trends. Also made some minor adjustments to overnight temps. Models showing some mid level cloudiness overspreading the area from west to east during the predawn time frame. Consequently expect to a see non-diurnal trend to overnight lows. Exception may be the east as thicker cloud cover arrives only just a couple hours before or during sunrise. No changes to the zone package, only grids.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 349 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure squarely overhead has led to a calm and sunny day across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s by late this afternoon with evening readings falling through the 70s and into the upper 60s. Mid to high cloud cover will begin to stream in this evening and tonight as high pressure moves east with backing flow taking shape aloft. This will give way to an infiltration of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico as top-down moistening quickly occurs after midnight. Surface ridging will maintain a longer residence time nearer the Virginia state line, therefore allowing for cooler valley temperatures in the lower 50s. Elsewhere, generally looking at valleys falling into the low to mid 50 degree range with ridges remaining in the mid 50s to near 60. Valley fog should be less prominent tonight with the increasing cloud cover, with better chances being across the valleys of far eastern Kentucky. Precipitation chances will then be on the increase during the day Wednesday as increasing instability will promote thunderstorm chances by late morning through the afternoon. Low level forcing will be nonexistent, outside of the higher terrain. Lift will therefore depend on shortwave energy moving through the developing southwest flow aloft. Any storms that develop will be of the pulse variety given anemic deep layer shear of 10-15 knots. Instability may very well end up materializing to much less than the 500-1000 J/KG of SBCAPE forecast if low clouds persist as negligible if any mid level cooling takes place. Storm chances should then diminish with the loss of daytime heating Wednesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall pattern heading into the weekend. A summer like pattern will be setting up across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the week and into the early part of the weekend. By late in the weekend, models continue to indicate a tropical or subtropical wave moving onshore somewhere in the southeast United States. Exactly if and where this occurs is still in question, with the 12z GFS suggesting the system would move northwest from South Carolina bringing deep moisture along with increasing rain chances to eastern KY early next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF indicates impacts with this system will remain east of the Appalachians. Both the GFS and ECMWF are continuing trends they`ve shown in recent runs. So while they are not in agreement with each other they are consistent. Confidence in any specific model solutions for Sunday onward is lower than normal, but based on latest guidance and the standard model blend will end up with a forecast with daily rain chances increasing each day from Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid level deck will overspread the area overnight. Could see some patchy fog in the most sheltered valley locations but not expecting any influence at area terminals at this time. Winds will be light until tomorrow when they increase from the southwest at 5-10 kts.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY

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