Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311925 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTS IN THE VICINITY OF KY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONE OF THEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE OTHER MEANDERS TO THE WEST. THE VORT THAT MEANDERS TO THE WEST WILL COME BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT ITS EMBEDDED IN...BUT THE MODELS AT LEAST ALL AGREE ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVES BY THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE 60 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED BOTH NIGHTS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS TODAY SPAWNING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME AND THIS MAY SPAWN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OVER OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH A PIECE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS OR DEEP SOUTH...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...THROUGH THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY HANDLING THE WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE MORE DOMINANT RIDGE VERY WELL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO TEMPER THE HEAT SOME...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-5KT FEET HAS DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXTENSIVE TOWARDS DAWN SO HAVE PUT IN IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM

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