Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231706 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 106 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Showers associated with a warm front continue to push into central Kentucky. Latest hi-res model guidance has this activity continuing to fall apart as it encounters the dry air to the east. However, based on latest trends, its increasingly likely we will see some shower activity slip into our far southwest counties by late this afternoon and evening. Thus, have tossed in some rain chances in the Cumberland Plateau. This activity should move on through and diminish by 00z, but a quick few hundredths of rainfall will be possible. Meanwhile, the rest of eastern Kentucky remains mild and dry with RH`s dropping to between 25 and 30 percent presently. We should bottom out slightly lower this afternoon, helping to eat away at the rain trying to move towards us. UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Only a few high clouds drifting across the area and this will be the case through most of the day. Thus, only change was to decrease cloud cover. Dry air still entrenched across the area will keep dewpoints down today leading to a very dry afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 647 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 GOES 16 IR showing upstream high clouds will stream into the region. However, obs under this deck are mostly indicating a more scattered deck. MOst portions of the region remain under mostly clear skies. No major changes needed this update.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 348 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Morning surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure remains anchored across Lake Erie and we remain in the northeast flow this morning. This area of surface high pressure will eject south and east today with winds veering to the south through the day. However, the concern will be how much recovery can we see in the far east in terms of dewpoint. Right now think that dewpoints will be slow to recover and consequently RH will remain low particularly in the east. While this could lead to some wildfire issues given the aforementioned RH and likely dry fuels the winds will remain lighter in general. Given the veering winds to the south through the day, and height rises as upper level ridge shifts east it will lead to warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the lower 60s. Morning surface analysis also revealed a warm front resides southwest of the region in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will lift north tonight and cross the region. Thus mid to high clouds will be on the increase through the day into tonight, but particularly in the northern portions of the CWA. Overall think there will be too much in the way of subsidence to see anything in terms of precip with the front. This will mainly usher in warm and moist airmass across the region. That said, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The soundings also indicate some decent mixing as LLJ will be on the increase ahead of an approaching synoptic system in the Central Plains. Therefore, did opt to increase wind gusts in the afternoon to around 15 to 20 mph mainly in the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass region. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 After a dry start, most of the period looks unsettled. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS on Friday evening will give way to a stacked low pressure system over the southern plains, which is forecast to weaken and move slowly northeast to IN by Sunday evening. A stream of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico coupled with the approaching upper level system should bring rain, with the greatest probability Saturday night into Sunday. Weak instability should also be present, and justifies including a slight chance of thunderstorms. As the disintegrating system passes to our north, its cold front is expected to dissolve and leave us without a change in air mass. Models show another weakening low pressure system coming out of the southern plains early in the work week and moving up the Ohio Valley. This time around, cold frontal passage is expected to occur, accompanied by an increase in the POP for Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF part ways at this point. The ECMWF stalls the front nearby, while the GFS takes it all the way to the Gulf Coast. The compromise forecast which is being used will likely eventually get changed once it becomes more clear which scenario will be closer to reality. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Despite high pressure shifting east, VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours. The impact of the high shifting east will be slightly stronger winds, generally 5 to 10 mph this afternoon, then closer to 10 mph for Friday afternoon. Winds should diminish during the overnight hours as the inversion should be able to set up.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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