Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211733 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 133 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Still a little fog left in parts of the upper Cumberland Valley and along the Levisa and Tug Fork, but this is quickly lifting and dissipating. Updated NDFD based on latest hourly trends. Overall forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Forecast is largely on track, and has only been updated to blend early morning obs into the forecast grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 318 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A very quiet period is in store, with ridging at the surface and aloft dominating our weather. Seasonal valley fog will occur this morning, and develop again late tonight, and last into Thursday morning before dissipating. Otherwise, skies will be clear. With the westerlies well to our north and high geopotential heights due to the ridge, we will continue to see above normal temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 318 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Models continue to agree on strong ridging to last into Saturday. This will keep temperatures well above normal with no precipitation. Will continue to go towards the high end of guidance given that has been the trend recently with these strong ridges. Sunday becomes a little less certain with regard to temperature as the GFS has a better push of the back door cold front into the area than the ECMWF. Will back off temperatures a bit on Sunday and go somewhere in the middle of the 2 models. Weather will stay dry as there is no moisture with the frontal boundary. By Early next week, models diverge even more with the ECMWF re-establishing the ridge over the region with temperatures continuing to be well above normal. The GFS on the other hand, brings a cold front into the region late Monday into Monday night bringing showers and perhaps a few storms to the area. This would also bring much cooler conditions for Tuesday and beyond. Clearly, there is much uncertainty on this part of the forecast. Will include a slight chance of pops to account for the GFS solution, but any solution for early next week is very preliminary. The ECMWF solution would keep the area dry into Wednesday. Either way, rain chances will be very minimal through the extended portion of the forecast. Wave that will eventually lead to the system early next week should be fully onshore in the next 24 to 36 hours, so models should start to show a bit more agreement by tomorrow as we get more upper air data with this system. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 VFR conditions and near 5 knot or less northeast winds will prevail for much of the period, with the exception being where fog develops tonight into Thursday morning. This will mainly be confined to river valleys given another day without rainfall. SJS may see a period of MVFR visibilities as slightly greater near- surface moisture remains in place, along with being nearer the axis of surface ridging. This fog will mix out by around 13Z Thursday as clear skies and light winds ensue.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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