Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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599 FXUS63 KJKL 152058 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 358 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 345 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered near Florida with the ridge axis extending into the Southeastern states to Mid South Region. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave was moving through the OH Valley region while a broad trough encompasses much of the Western and especially Southwestern Conus. Within this trough, an upper level low was located over the Southern NM and far West TX area while a shortwave trough was digging south off the California coast. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains region with a warm front that extended east and became stationary across the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. North of the boundary across the Lower OH Valley region, moisture remains in place within the rather broad frontal zone in place. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure was in place across the Eastern Great Lakes region with weak east to north flow across the area. Stratus build down across the area is leading to low clouds across all but the far south with visibilities already reduced on the ridges. Through this evening, the shortwave trough will move across the area this evening with another round of scattered to numerous showers and some drizzle or sprinkles across the far south. Behind this shortwave, the upper level ridge axis will move into the Lower OH Valley and Eastern KY while the upper level now nearing TX moves into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile the surface low will track into the KS and OK area. The stationary front meanwhile will begin to return north as a warm front into the TN Valley tonight. After the round of showers through this evening, moisture will become more shallow so the chances for getting measurable precipitation will likely end. However, the low levels will remain moist and this combined with subsidence associated with the ridge should lead to further stratus build down tonight and some sprinkles or patchy drizzle will be possible. Patchy coverage to areas of fog coverage is expected, especially on the ridgetops. The upper level ridge axis will move east of the area on Monday while the upper level low moves into NW MO and SW IA. The sfc low should move to northern MO by Monday evening. The upper level through will move into the western Great Lakes region with the sfc low also reaching southern Lake MI or MI by the end of the period. The warm front should lift north of the area by Monday evening into Monday night. Elevated instability will also be on the increase late especially in the southwest and west. Thus, much of Monday morning into mid afternoon should feature precipitation free weather and skies possibly brightening up a bit. However, as the warm front nears and the upper level system approaches, isentropic lift should bring another good chance for showers. A rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out late in the south and west. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 Convoluted weather pattern throughout the long term period with split jet streams. Multiple closed lows will meander about the central part of the CONUS keeping southwest flow in place over our area and this will provide the one constant for the period: above normal temperatures. Relied heavily on the blended model guidance in this complex pattern. A cold front will be stretched out across the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening as a shortwave scoots across the Ohio Valley. This should provide for numerous showers during the day and cannot rule out a few thunderstorms with models showing some instability along with a fairly healthy 850 mb jet aloft. The chance for showers will linger into Wednesday morning as the front slowly works to our southeast. Timing is very suspect beyond Wednesday, but it appears now that we can expect a brief break Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A southern stream disturbance then rides north-northeast out of Texas and this will bring renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday. Saturday looks dry right now but another system ejecting out of the southwest appears to spread more rain across the area by Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 Widespread IFR CIGS are currently being reported across the area with some stations such as JKL and SJS below airport minimums attm. A limited area near the TN and VA border including valley sites 1A6 and I35 are reporting MVFR. Some limited improvement but still IFR CIGS and or vis remaining is expected at all the TAF sites with some MVFR south of all sites through 0Z. However, a upper level wave will interact with the frontal zone lingering near the area to bring a renewed threat for rain showers and drizzle and this should maintain stratus build down across the area or result in these bases lowering by the overnight hours as the boundary begins to return back toward the area as a warm front. Thus IFR and possibly below airport min CIGS are again expected at the TAF sites during the 0Z to 15Z period. Improvement to MVFR may reach SME, LOZ, and JKL during the last 3 to 6 hours of the period. Light winds are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP

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