Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270229 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1029 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 UPDATED TO REFLECT BETTER HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS COVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURE AT DORTON MESONET SITE IS DOWN TO 37...SO SOME SNOW MAY START MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM GROUND SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY...BUT A QUICK DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION STILL EXTENDS WELL BACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND EXTENDED THE BETTER POPS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE LATEST MODELS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 2 OR 3 AM. WITH THIS IN MIND...LATEST NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW SHOULDN`T BE A BIG ISSUE GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE NEAR 54 DEGREES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK..WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK INTO THE AREA. NOT CONVINCED IT WILL SPREAD IN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...ABOUT TO EXIT INTO VA AND WV. THIS CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE EXITING TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THERE IS A DRY SLOT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER...STRATIFORM PRECIP IS STILL SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BIGGEST THING TO NOTE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS THE QUICK CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SW TO THE NW...AND THE SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. SOME 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THE LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND THE RAIN SHIELD FOLLOWS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ENERGY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION...AND WORKS WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE TO CREATE THE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT QPF. EXPECT THIS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. AS FOR PRECIP TYPES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND SHALLOW AND OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT ICE GROWTH SHOULD BE UNLIKELY AND RAIN WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY...THOUGH COLD NW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD RAIN POTENTIAL. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF AND MOVING OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME OF THE RAIN MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO MIX WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES. VERY LITTLE IMPACT /IF ANY/ IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOW. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH AG EXTENSION OF UK...THE IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD INITIALLY STAY VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...KAS

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