Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220334 AAB AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1134 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1125 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent short term model runs and observations. We are not confident that any activity overnight will occur in the north as has been in a few recent HRRR runs, but this scenario will be monitored. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Debris clouds continue to move into Eastern and South Central KY from weakening convection over OH and IN. A southward moving outflow is in the vicinity of the I 71 corridor from near CVG to near ILN but it also extends further west near or just north of the OH River and then north near the I 65 corridor to near IND. Even the more substantial convection that was over parts of southern IN has waned over the past hour. This convection should continue to wane as it moves into an area of drier air and with the loss of daytime heating and a resurgence is not anticipated. However, the outflow boundary should reach the northern CWA likely settling somewhere near the I 64 corridor. Some debris clouds perhaps a bit of mid clouds in this across the far north should continue to move across the area over the next few hours, but surface high pressure to the east of the area should bring mostly clear skies overall with light winds. Sky cover was adjusted accordingly. The previously forecast lows are on target so no substantial changes were needed at this time. The outflow boundary could serve as a focus for convection on Friday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Dewpoints over all but the far southwest part of the area have fallen into the upper 50s to lower 60s as drier air has mixed down from the mid levels. Low level moisture will begin to increase again tonight, with dewpoints getting back to 70 or above on Friday. Overnight lows should not be quite as low as last night with the rising dewpoints, but should still see numerous spots get into the mid 60s. The combination of highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints around 70 on Friday will push heat index values to around 100 in some areas, but still below advisory criteria. After a couple days of dry weather prevailing across the entire forecast area, we will see a return of thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon as instability increases and a weak wave moves southeast around the upper ridge. The chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Dominant upper level ridge will flatten out through time with the core shifting to the west as disturbances drop southeast into the Ohio Valley. This will result in almost daily chances for thunderstorms throughout the period in an entrenched very warm and muggy airmass. In fact, the weekend forecast is trending more unsettled as a weak front is progged to drop into the area on Saturday then waffle around overhead or nearby into next week. This stormier forecast means that ambient temperatures may not get as warm as previously advertised, but dewpoints still climb well into the 70s and the heat index remains progged to reach near 100 each day Saturday through at least Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 VFR conditions should prevail at the TAFs sites for most of, if not the entire period. Low level moisture will begin to increase tonight from current levels, but the current thinking remains that fog will be limited to river valley locations and near the larger lakes and creeks. At this time, we have continued to not include any fog in the TAFs tonight which is a notch less than persistence. An outflow boundary should settle near the Interstate 64 corridor overnight and models have some convection either developing or moving into the area and/or move in additional outflows to focus some convection during the 16Z to 00Z period in the north. Chances appear best at SYM and possibly SJS and JKL as well, and isolated convection cannot be completely ruled out SME and LOZ either. VCTS was used from 16Z through the end of the period at SYM and VCSH at JKL, SJS, SME, and LOZ. Winds will remain light and variable through the period outside of any convection. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP

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