Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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613 FXUS63 KJKL 240635 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 235 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Issued an update to the grids to input the latest observations. Besides some spotty showers, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Have sent some freshened up grids to the web and NDFD. UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Current conditions across the area feature now spotty showers moving through the area from the south and southeast. Despite trending less shower activity currently, present shower activity and excessive runoff still ongoing will keep continued flooding in localized areas. In addition to this, showers to the south in TN continue to move north and 00Z models hint at the probability of the parent low over the south pivoting to track up the east coast. This will bring another limited area of showers over the area. There may be a few more instances of localized flooding through the night so matched up with neighboring offices and extended the Flood Watch through 12Z. In addition to this change, also added fog to the forecast. A new zfp has been sent with this update. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Updated the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the evening. Made some tweaks to the pops through the night but overall changes were minimal as the pattern remains pretty steady as a widespread area of light to moderate shower activity tracks north through the area. Thus, no zfp updates will be needed at this time. The next update will include an update to the Flood Watch as down south, more shower activity will continue to stream north into the area and likely an extention to the watch. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 An upper level low continues to deepen as it pushes across the Tennessee valley and into the Deep South this afternoon. It will be slow to progress eastward however as it remains near steady strength, slowly traversing the Deep South through the day Monday, before finally pushing off the South Carolina coast into the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday morning, then proceeding to ride up the Mid Atlantic Coast through the day Tuesday. It will continue to ride up the coastline well into the extended period. Currently, eastern KY is situated on the NE side of the upper level low, with abundant southerly flow in place in the upper levels. However the surface low is somewhat displaced from the upper level low, currently moving SE across Georgia. This is keeping llvl flow out of the east which will persist through tomorrow. This shift in winds is keeping instability out of the region, and temperatures unseasonably cool. However, abundant moisture continues to wrap around this system, impacting much of Kentucky and points southward. Rain showers have been persistent throughout the day, and will continue into the overnight hours, before the surface low finally pulls far enough to the southeast to push best moisture out of the state by Monday. That being said, enough moisture will linger to keep cloud cover across the region. Can`t rule out a few isolated showers during peak heating in the afternoon hours according to the latest Hi res ARW and NMM, especially in the eastern portion of the state, so did leave in some slight chance pops through the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer than today but still less than seasonable normals, generally in the mid 60s. The upper level low will push southeast of the state by Monday night, allowing increasing heights across the region heading into Tuesday morning. Drier air will finally start penetrating the region with clouds starting to thin out throughout the night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 The slow moving storm system which brought rain over the weekend will be centered over the Carolinas at the start of the period. Any straggling showers on the northwest edge of the system will be on the way out. Primarily dry weather can be expected for the first couple days of the period as ridging aloft passes over. The next system to affect us will already be over the middle of the CONUS on Wednesday, with the upper level trough making its deepest southward dive over OK/TX by late Wednesday, before lifting out to the northeast. The cold front trailing from the associated surface low is expected to reach our area on Thursday. Models are not gung- ho on precip with it, but do show generalized light amounts. Have carried mostly chance POPs for Thursday, in line with MOS. The GFS makes a cleaner fropa than the ECMWF, and hence has at least a day of dry weather to follow. The ECMWF is faster with a potential return of precip. Have split the difference and continued slight chance and chance POPs for Thursday night into Friday night. During the weekend an upper level ridge builds over the southeast CONUS and brings warmer temps, but tends to subdue convection. Models show some light precip developing on Sunday over/near the Appalachians during the heat of the day. If anything occurs, chances are it would be localized, and only 20-30% POPs were used. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Generally IFR, to at times briefly lower, conditions will be in place through nearly the entire TAF period with field mins for cigs expected during this time. A brief bounce up to MVFR will be possible, mainly during the daylight hours. SYM, being the most north location may only see some occasional MVFR cigs - otherwise VFR will be the rule.Look for shower activity to continue to gradually decrease throughout the area with the exception of the far east. Winds will be northeast at 5 to 10 kts across the forecast area.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ079-080- 083>088-110-113-115>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GREIF

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