Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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619 FXUS63 KJKL 180915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 303 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018 A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather across eastern Kentucky dry today. Winds should be generally light and variable with partly cloud skies on tap as well. The weather will become wet again tonight, as an area of low pressure moving northward through the Great Plains, drags a warm front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. The rain should begin around 0Z tonight and will likely be coming to an end by late Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts should be light, so no flooding issues are anticipated from this rainfall. Temperatures are going to be well above normal in the short term, as strong southerly flow along the west edge of a strong area of high pressure sets up across the region. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s today, and in the lower 70s for Monday. Tonights lows will only fall into the mid to upper 40s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 415 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018 Similar to last night, the models are in pretty good agreement with the overall longwave pattern aloft through the extended as they all depict persistent and strong ridging through the southeast and troughing to the west. This sets up a near continuous deep layer flow of warm and moist air from the southwest direction - off the western Gulf - up through the Ohio Valley. The ridge expands enough into the southern Appalachians early in the long term to likely protect eastern Kentucky from any impulses sliding by well to the north. This does change on Wednesday, though, as the ridge retreats to the southeast in all models with energy packets rolling east northeast along the Ohio River. Clusters of energy will continue to use this route into the upcoming weekend with Kentucky under the gun for the effects of mid level waves strafing by the state from Wednesday on through Saturday. More dissension is introduced into the models by the weekend as the trough to the west comes east quicker and flatter in the GFS than the ECMWF. However, for Kentucky there will be little distinction in the pattern with southwest flow holding pat. Given the overall model agreement will favor a blended solution for the grids after accounting for local effects - favoring the ECMWF for differences late. Sensible weather will feature anomalous warmth through Wednesday with the precip chances to the northwest during the bulk of this time. Strong southwest flow will support unseasonable - record setting (possibly for the entire month) - temperatures for the area Tuesday and Wednesday. The sfc high pressure to the east responsible for the summer-like temperatures will shift further east on Wednesday allowing a cold front to move into the area and stall out. In addition to a threat of periods of excessive rainfall from this lingering boundary sfc based instability should be enough for some thunder chances Wednesday into Wednesday night. Surges of moisture will then seep northeast along the front from Thursday through Saturday with more showers expected - though indications are that the heavier rains will more likely concentrate in locations closer to the Ohio River and just to the north as the southeast high helps to shield eastern Kentucky from the direct storm track for much of the time. We will need to watch this situation, though, as plenty of moisture will fall and should it be further south than anticipated flooding concerns will be renewed and extended through the upcoming weekend. Again made some significant adjustments to temperatures at night for expected ridge to valleys splits Monday and Tuesday nights along with Friday night. Did also tweak the PoPs through the period to better match the 00z ECMWF surges late in the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018 Expect IFR or lower clouds, with some very light rain/drizzle across the area through 9 or 10z. Ceilings should then lift to MVFR, before scattering out after 12z, as high pressure builds in across the region. Winds will veer to the west at 5 to 10 kts tonight, before diminishing and becoming more variable into Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.