Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180802 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 302 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions. The first rain showers should begin moving into the area early this morning, with scattered showers spreading across the eastern Kentucky through out the day. The rain should begin to taper off tonight, with the last rain showers exiting the area mid morning Sunday. Based on the latest model data, precipitation amounts should be meager at best, with a quarter of an inch or less expected pretty much everywhere. Above normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the area of low pressure moves off to our east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the first part of the extended as they all depict the departure of a relatively weak trough from the southern Appalachians early Sunday followed by strong ridging through the start of the new week. The apex of this ridge passes through Kentucky on Monday ahead of a full latitude trough sweeping east through the Northern and High Plains down to the Rio Grande Valley. However, its forward/eastward momentum is slowed on Tuesday as the southern portion drags and starts to close off while the north part whips into the Great Lakes but also weakens. The models are not handling this development very well with the ECMWF the strongest and furthest east with its new Gulf Coast closed low. The Canadian is slowest while the GFS weakest and furthest south with its core. Nevertheless the mass of these lower heights stay in the Gulf - allowing zonal flow to take over to the north and through Kentucky - with our state dodging a direct impact from either parts of this system. The bulk of the energy in this pattern will then be contained north of the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. However, a strengthening low - especially from the ECMWF will head for the Upper Midwest with more ridging for the area ahead of this. Given the model agreement early and some issues later on will favor a general model blend for the bulk of this forecast. Sensible weather will feature a continuation of the very warm conditions through the entire extended portion of the forecast. Generally highs will be in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. As seems appropriate for this spate of spring-like weather we will have a few periods of showers mixed in the forecast this week - mainly from Tuesday night through Wednesday and again later Friday. Best chances for significant rain appears to hold off until next weekend depending on how the Midwest system develops and moves into the area. Thunder does not look like a good bet this week, though, as the best upper support stays well away from the CWA. The main concern through next week looks to be one of fire weather where limited rainfall and very warm temperatures appear to be giving eastern Kentucky a jump start on the season. Made some small to moderate adjustments, early on, to the temperatures at night for minor ridge to valley distinctions before we see a brief CAA pattern midweek. As for PoPs, basically tightened them up a bit with the dying cold front passing through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Mainly high clouds will increase across the region through 12Z ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave. However, before 12Z, the mid clouds should encroach on the Lake Cumberland Region with clouds thickening and lowering further, with low level clouds moving in from southwest to northeast from then until the end of the period. Scattered showers are possible mainly from 16Z onward and enough saturation may occur for a few periods of MVFR CIGS and or VIS by the end of the period. Confidence in that occurring was not high enough to include at this time. Southwest winds will average 10KT or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR

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