Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OUR WEST. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP JUST SOUTH OF THE JKL OFFICE IN THE LAST HALF HOUR...BUT ARE QUITE LOW AND LIGHT. WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY ACTUAL PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND OUT OF THIS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY UPDATES TO POPS NEED TO BE MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW...AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS NOT SURPRISING THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARMER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MS VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS KY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND POINTS TOWARDS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 PM ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ALMOST AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SYSTEM...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE AGAIN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND THUS QUESTIONS ON WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL YIELD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CHANCE OR LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW A FAIRLY MILD WEEK WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 DESPITE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...MOST OF EASTERN KY REMAINS UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KY AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CIGS COULD DROP DOWN TO 3KT FEET AROUND THE SAME TIME...HOVERING THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. JUST INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN RELATION TO THE AIRPORT SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING CAUSING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE. CIGS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK UP TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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