Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 212229 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 629 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 629 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 Updated the forecast to just add the latest observations into the forecast and trend them appropriately into the evening. The area is still enveloped under a veil of cirrus this hour and will hinder the drop off of temperatures this evening and into later tonight. Due to this will keep the sky cover forecast as is. The erst of the forecast is right on track and the grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 405 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 A complex of storms continues to move into far western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee immediately ahead of the axis of a shortwave trough pushing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A frontal boundary currently sits across far northern Tennessee, with temperatures to the north in Kentucky in the mid 60s to low 70s, and a few 80 degree readings down across the Volunteer state. Surface convergence remains maximized across Tennessee as early day mixing, albeit shallow only to 2500-3000 feet, and stratus have kept this boundary stalled right along the state line. With higher pressure and subsequently drier air slowly oozing south across the Ohio Valley, expect any showers/storms to remain south of Kentucky where better forcing/instability will reside. Will see an increase in clouds as this complex moves along the Interstate 40 corridor, but conditions should remain dry. Passing of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis will filter in cooler and drier air from the north overnight, dropping temperatures into the upper 20s to near 30 in the Bluegrass region late tonight. Have therefore hoisted a Freeze Warning with at least a couple of hours of temperatures at or below 30 degrees anticipated as skies eventually clear underneath the southern periphery of high pressure sliding across the Great Lakes. Elsewhere, temperatures look to remain in the low 30s to near 40 degrees along the Tennessee border. Surface ridging will traverse toward Lake Erie Wednesday, keeping cool and dry conditions in place as temperatures remain below normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s. While minimum relative humidity values will drop into the mid 20 percent range, north/northeast winds of 5- 10 mph look to keep any burns from spreading too rapidly. High pressure moving across the Appalachians will promote at least a brief period of radiational cooling Wednesday evening/night, before warm air advection and cloud cover increase later into the night toward Thursday morning. This may keep the Lake Cumberland region and Interstate 75 corridor above freezing, but points north and east will likely see temperatures dip below freezing, especially in the valleys of far eastern and northeastern Kentucky. Additionally, frost formation will also be in the offing given light winds. Will hold off for now on frost/freeze headlines until details on exact placement become a little clearer, and to avoid confusion with tonight`s Freeze Warning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 A warm front will work east late Thursday and Thursday night with warmer air spilling into the Ohio river valley. We could squeeze out a few sprinkles as the boundary pushes across the area, but the boundary layer will be so dry, shouldn`t be much reaching the ground. The warm air really makes its presence felt by Friday with highs well into the 60s. A cold front will work east towards the area on Saturday. Very warm air will continue to be pumped up ahead of this boundary with temperatures pushing into the mid 70s. Models continue to slow down the approach of the cold front. It looks like the better period of rainfall will come Saturday evening into Saturday night as the front makes its way across the area. Still some question as to how strong storms could get, but something we will have to monitor as it has potential to be some strong storms with modest shear in place. More uncertainty arrives in the forecast by Sunday as another system will quickly be on the heels of the first and there is some question on if we see a lull between the two systems, or the weather stays active right on through the early portion of next week. Regardless, will go with the blended rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday. Mild weather looks to continue well into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 Stratus continues to hold strong this afternoon, mainly along of and north of Mountain Parkway. Have begun to see this mix out slightly with LOZ/SME returning to VFR criteria while JKL/SJS/SYM remain socked in underneath MVFR ceilings. All terminals should return to VFR levels by late this afternoon as mixing continues and a frontal boundary, currently along the Kentucky/Tennessee border, edges southward ahead of drier air filtering in from the north. Increasing pressure as this occurs will allow for an uptick in northerly winds to near 10 knots tonight as ceilings lift. Pilots heading south toward TYS/BNA/MEM/ATL need to be on the lookout for thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening. CB chances currently look to remain south of much of the Kentucky airspace, with a stray shower/storm possible near the Tennessee border. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044- 050>052. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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