Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271233 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 733 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS. THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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