Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 190711 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20 PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30 TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT MIGHT BE NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES LINE UP BETTER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...JMW/KAS AVIATION...HAL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.