Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 152126 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 426 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 A WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDING FRONT WILL WORK ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AT THE MOMENT SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR...THEY MAY START TO FALL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...GOING TO STICK WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DAY OUT...LEAVING BEHIND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS. NOT QUITE SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO PLAN TO GO WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ALL OUT RAIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE PRESENTLY...WENT WITH A QUICK DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...OUR HIGHS MAY OCCUR EARLY...AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S...WITH RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE REMAINING...WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NW FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE PART OF THE STATE. ANY DRIZZLE WILL END AND CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER COULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOISTURE OFF THE GULF WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GET CAUGHT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. 12Z MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS LOW POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND HAVE INCLUDED BOTH. ONCE THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LEAVES...THERE IS ANOTHER BREAK FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT ONE HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM HEADS EAST...ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO A GOOD CONSENSUS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE LATEST TREND IN THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER PRECIP IN OUR AREA. CONSIDERING HOW POORLY THEY HAVE BEEN HANDLING IT SO FAR...IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER FULL SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE WHOLE-HEARTEDLY JUMPING ON THAT BANDWAGON. HAVE MADE A MODEST DRAWBACK ON POPS...WHILE MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN. GREATEST POPS ARE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN. IN ADDITION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND WE COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY ATTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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