Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221927 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3 TO 4K FT LEVEL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEARS BODIES OF WATER. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL WEATHER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SPEAKING OF TOMORROW...OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEIR INCREASING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. STILL LOOKING A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IF THIS FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED THE NIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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