Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250841 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 341 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU EVENING. FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ

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