Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250239 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1039 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover through the overnight period. Some of the cooler valleys have dropped off into the upper 50s. Thicker high clouds continue to move in from the west. This may thwart the valley drop off somewhat; however, some thinning has been occurring at times, so will keep the forecast lows intact, besides some small adjustments. Updates have sent. UPDATE Issued at 804 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Plenty of high clouds continue to move in from the west this evening, with low and mid clouds on the demise. Have reduced the sky cover a bit through the overnight, and then allowed for an increase in mid clouds through dawn. Temperatures are currently running in the 60s and 70s. Clouds and light south to southwest flow will keep the ridge/valley temperature split closer tonight. Did increase temperatures on the ridges a bit more, with mid 50s for lows, while some valleys, especially in the far east, slip into the 40s eventually. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. This trend should continue into this evening, before mid cloud begins to increase across the entire area overnight. The amount of cloud present tonight is problematic and overnight low temperatures will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The surface low is also over the panhandle and the entire system will lift northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St. Louis by 12Z Sunday morning. Current data still points towards Saturday being dry across the area, with just a slight chance of thundershowers in the far southwest part of the area by late afternoon. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will spread slowly across the area Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area. Rain chances Saturday night will vary from around 50 percent in far east KY to 90 percent over the western part of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 The extended period looks to be quite active, with several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected. The first wave of rain is expected Saturday night through Sunday night as a low pressure system moves northeastward out of the south central Plains and into the Great Lakes region. This system will drag a cold front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, which will spark numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the warm and fairly muggy air mass ahead of the boundary. Once the low passes by to our north, the rain will taper off steadily Sunday night into early Monday morning. The model data has the front stalling just to the south of the area on Monday. A wave of low pressure is then forecast to form along the western end of the boundary. This area of low pressure is then expected to move northward across our area Monday and Monday night, bringing more rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky. This round of rain will likely linger across the area through the day on Wednesday, depending on how quickly the parent low pulls eastward out of the region. A ridge of high pressure should then settle over the region Wednesday night, bringing a temporary break from the precipitation. However, the break may be short lived, as the models have another weather system coming out of the Plains and across our neck of the woods again Thursday and Thursday night. At this time, due to model uncertainty late in the period, decided to leave out thunder for now to end the extended. Temperatures through out the period should be well above normal, with daily highs in the 60s and 70s, and nightly lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 VFR conditions will remain in place through the period. Mainly mid and high level clouds will be seen, as an area of low pressure gradually moves in from the west. Gusty south southwest winds will diminish to around 5 kts this evening, with marginal low level wind shear brushing KSME between 06 and 13z. Winds will back a bit more on Saturday. Sustained south winds of 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts will engage by the mid to late morning hours along and west of a line from KSYM to KLOZ. Winds will be weaker to the east, mainly in the 5 to 10 kt range. Ceilings will lower Saturday night, with showers threatening from west to east. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.