Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 132057 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 457 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place across eastern Kentucky today and most of tonight, before an area of low pressure finally brings showers and storms back to the area. The latest model data, especially the NAM12 model, is suggesting that showers and storms will move into the forecast a bit sooner than previously thought, and be a bit more widespread. That being said, adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest model guidance. The best chance for showers and storms on Monday will still be during the afternoon hours, with the rain tapering off from northwest to southeast Monday night. The weather system that will produce our rain tomorrow and tomorrow night is forecast to move slowly off to the east. The proximity of this low will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to linger along the VA and TN borders through late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. As far as rainfall amounts go, the latest NAM guidance is producing the highest totals, which are likely overdone across the forecast area as a whole. Instead adjusted the blended model precip amounts toward the latest NAM amounts, especially along the VA and TN borders for Monday. In general, most locations could see around one quarter of an inch of rain Monday and Monday night, with locally higher amounts possible with any thunderstorms. Temperatures should continue to run slightly below normal during the period. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017 The models are in good agreement through the end of the work week, with ridging ruling across the southeastern CONUS, while more modest short waves move through generally flattening flow to the north. By next weekend, there is model disagreement with regards to whether the ridge will breakdown or not. The ECMWF has more troughing across the Mississippi Valley, while the GFS holds onto ridging through the end of the week. For eastern Kentucky, generally near normal temperatures, with somewhat humid conditions will be in place through the majority of the period. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s, with lows in the mid 60s. A small chance of storms will threaten the south on Tuesday, before better rain chances return through the mid-week, with a passing warm front to contend with, accompanied by some mid level support to the north. A cold front will approach from the northwest by Friday, before washing out over us on Saturday. Weaker high pressure will then provide generally dry weather by Sunday, with slightly less humidity.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017 The 18Z TAFs will feature VFR conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies to begin the period. LOZ and SME would be first to see mostly cloudy skies due to the approach of an area of low pressure from the southwest this evening and tonight. Cloud cover will gradually increase in coverage tonight, with bases steadily lowering to around 2.5k by the end of the period. The first lower cloud bases of around 7K are expected to overspread the area by around 12Z Monday. Isolated showers and storms are expected to begin affecting JKL and SJS by 16 or 17Z on Monday. Showers and storms will be around SYM, LOZ, and SME tomorrow, but at this time it appears they remain scattered enough to not warrant mentioning in the TAFs at this time. Any airport that does see a thunderstorm could experience MVFR or worse conditions. Winds should be generally light and variable through out the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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