Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 222019 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 419 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3 TO 4K FT LEVEL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEARS BODIES OF WATER. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL WEATHER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SPEAKING OF TOMORROW...OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEIR INCREASING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. STILL LOOKING A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERALLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A DIURNAL FLAVOR EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT MIDWEEK PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE COVERAGE AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE GENERALLY DOMINATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR BEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THE REGION MIGHT END UP CAPPED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IF THIS FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED THE NIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.