Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 150826 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 426 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HUNTINGTON...TO JUST EAST OF JACKSON...TO NEAR MIDDLESBORO THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FOR MOST AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WELL UNDER FREEZING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS. BASED ON EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR. THUS...PLAN TO ISSUE AN ELEVATION BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S OR 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...BUT DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS ON A GENERAL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SET UP A RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL INTO THE 20S AND THE COLDER VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS WARRANTS THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. A BIG DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WE START OFF COLD...BUT SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS BIG DIURNAL CURVE WILL FEATURE SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DIFFERENCES STILL ARISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR...AND A COMPROMISE/BLEND WILL BE USED. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY...AND SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD RESULT. WILL EXPECT FROST IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...WHICH COULD CUT INTO COOLING AND FROST POTENTIAL. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AT MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DETAILS STILL LOOK MURKY...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING A SYSTEM... HAVE USED POPS RISING TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CIGS FALLING TO BETWEEN 600 AND 800 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL CIGS NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK...BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO BACK TO MVFR AND VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THIS INCREASE TAKES PLACE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087- 088-118-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.