Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271053 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 653 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 653 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 Light to moderate rain has moved into our southwestern counties as expected. The northern extent is much less impressive and probably not putting down much rainfall. Regardless, should see a quick bout of measurable rainfall this morning before activity becomes more isolated to scattered ahead of the cold front which is still out in western Kentucky. This front will sweep across the area this afternoon. We may see an uptick in shower activity as the front moves through and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 303 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 An area of low pressure is lifting northeast into the great lakes this morning with a trailing cold front extending southward across Illinois into western Tennessee. A band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is working into central Kentucky presently, left over from the convection in the lower Mississippi river valley yesterday. This band is encountering very little, if any instability as it continues to press eastward. This activity will push across eastern Kentucky this morning. The risk for any severe storms is greatly diminishing as instability remains much too limited. While the showers should exit by midday, there likely will not be enough time to destabilize behind the departing showers, so the front will continue to press on through the area during the evening hours. As a surface ridge builds in tonight, we should see slightly cooler temperatures with a slight ridge to valley split. While ridge will slide eastward on Friday, we will remain dry as southerly flow begins to pick up. Models are likely over doing the moisture advection on Friday with a due south flow. This will likely keep dewpoints a bit lower than models anticipate and further keep rain chances at bay. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 The models remain in good agreement with an amplified trough to rule across the central Conus into the middle of next week. A cutoff low will start out across the Four Corners Region and gradually amplify as it moves southeast and then pivots northeast into the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes region by early next week, with a positively tilted trough left in its wake by Wednesday. Friday night...a warm front will be situated close to the Ohio River. A strengthening low level jet will pump in higher PWATs, with convection breaking out near and towards the cool side of the front. For eastern Kentucky, the Bluegrass will have the better chance POPs, with lesser chances towards the southeast. Confidence in a severe threat remains lower, given the overnight timing; however, ample shear will be in place, so will have to see how things evolve over the next 24 hours. The warm front will lift north of the Ohio River this weekend, keeping POPs more limited across eastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with Saturday records in jeopardy. A strong cold front will approach and move through the area Sunday night into Monday. Low level shear will be through the roof, but instability will be modest. Will continue to mention gusty winds during this time frame. Dry weather will follow by Monday night and looks to last through Tuesday. Another front will develop in the vicinity of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a renewed threat of POPs. Well above average temperatures will be felt through this weekend, with values returning closer to normal readings for this time of the year behind the cold front next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017 A cold front will approach the area this morning, then cross the area this afternoon. As the front moves on through a few showers will be possible and perhaps some MVFR cigs will try to move into KSME, but may have a tough time making it farther east. VFR conditions will then prevail for the remainder of the TAF forecast period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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