Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271202 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 802 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS A BOUNDARY THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY. THOUGH MANY OF THE STORMS HERE ARE STRONG AND PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE JKL CWA. UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING PRECIP SITUATION. LAST FEW SCANS SHOWS SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BEGINNING TO MERGE AND HEADING EASTWARD. THESE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE JKL CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...MORE CELLS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS OUR LARGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES INTO PLAY. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. ..WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL LINE AND MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY HEAD INTO THE JACKSON CWA...BUT SOME LIGHTNING AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE TROUGH AND CREATING A DYNAMIC WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW...BUT THE MESOSCALE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS WE HEAD INTO TODAY. OVERALL...A WARM FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...HAS ALLOWED FOR A STRONG SURGE OF WARM UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS...COUPLED WITH A LARGE MCS THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT...HAS CREATED AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR NW TODAY...EXPECT THESE FACTORS TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DIVING FURTHER INTO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE... WHILE THERE ARE MANY PARAMETERS AT PLAY HERE...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SOME OF THE MOST TELL-ALL INFORMATION WE HAVE AT THIS POINT. AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING THE LOSS OF A LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CAPPING INVERSION BY 15Z THIS MORNING...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY 18Z. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL AROUND THE 6 TO 6.5 C/KM RANGE...AND SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS...ALL THINGS SEEM TO LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HIGH 6 HOUR PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO STILL INSINUATING THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. WHAT IS STILL RAISING SOME UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KM AROUND 12Z...BUT IT WEAKENS LOOKING AT THE 15Z AND LATER SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE BEST HELICITY AND HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES...BUT IT DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES. AND GIVEN THE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...IF A TORNADO DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD BE STRONG. NOW LOOKING AT SOME OTHER PARAMETERS OF CONCERN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND THE SURFACE LOW...WILL REMAIN MUCH FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF EASTERN KY...WITH A STRONG QVECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN...NORTHERN OHIO...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 300MB JET WILL SET UP ALONG WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ORIENTATION...ALSO WEST TO EAST...YIELDING THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP ALONG THE SAME PATH. BUT THE JET IS NOT SHOWING A DEFINITIVE STREAK...IT IS QUITE BROAD. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE BOUNDARY COULD ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECASTED. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT ALMOST SEEMS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE COLLOCATION OF FORCING AND LIFT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND THEREFORE NORTH OF KY. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...IT COULD BE THAT CELLS BEGIN DEVELOPING NORTH OF OUR REGION IF THE BOUNDARY ORIENTS ITSELF FURTHER NORTHWARD. IF THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CELLS WILL START DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. REGARDLESS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE OUTFLOWS OF THESE STORMS THAT DETERMINES HOW THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. AS OUTFLOWS PUSH AWAY FROM THE STORMS...AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDING CHARACTERISTICS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL STORM MODES ARE POSSIBLE...FROM SQUALL LINES...QLCS/S...MCS/S...AND INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS. AND THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT WELL DEFINED...DO WANT TO MAKE SPECIFIC MENTION THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO INITIATE A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHORTWAVE AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY AWAY FROM EASTERN KY. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE...BUT DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST...CUTTING OFF THE BEST CONVECTIVE AND PRECIP POTENTIAL BY 12Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING KICKING OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEAVING ONLY THE THREAT OF SOME SPRINKLES FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS THE TROUGH TEMPORARILY DAMPENS. HIGHS WILL MODIFY A BIT...REACHING THE LOW 80S BY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL REASSERT ITSELF...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNALLY INFLUENCED CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS STILL AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY...MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY HEAD INTO THE JACKSON CWA...BUT SOME LIGHTNING AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS SEEM TO BE MAINTAINING VFR STATUS /OR BORDERLINE MVFR/...AND RAIN SEEMS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LITTLE RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED. MAIN FOCUS FOR TAF PERIOD WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT AN EVENT THAT IS RARE FOR EASTERN KY IN JULY. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GENERAL IDEA ON THE POTENTIAL THREATS. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING THE VSBY TO AROUND A MILE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES THAT THE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES FOR THE TAF SITES AS NEEDED ONCE STORMS BEGIN INITIATING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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