Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270758 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY DESPITE THE APPROACH ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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